Thread: Tropical Depression Ida - inland

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND
HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

Looks like Central America is in for more rain.

Here is Dr Jeff Masters take on it . . . as of yesterday

The forecast for 97L
Steering currents are weak in the Southwest Caribbean, and 97L will move little over the next three days. If the disturbance intensifies into a tropical storm in the next three days, as seems likely, 97L will tap into moisture from the Pacific Ocean. This moisture will flow over Costa Rica, western Panama, and southern Nicaragua into 97L's circulation, bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to these areas Wednesday through Friday. There is a high potential for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in these regions. By Friday, steering currents are expected to pull 97L north or northwest, along the coast of Nicaragua or inland over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras. By Monday, 97L may pass over Western Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico

Western Caribbean itineraries may be affected

The recon flight will leave Biloxi in the 11 oclock hour today, and should arrive in the system by 4.

Tropical Depression Number 11
has formed in the
Southwestern Caribbean.

000
wtnt31 knhc 041456
tcpat1
bulletin
tropical depression eleven advisory number 1
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112009
1000 am est wed nov 04 2009

...tropical depression forms in the southwestern caribbean
sea...tropical storm warnings issued...

At 10 am est...1500 utc...the government of colombia has issued a
tropical storm warning for the islands of san andres and
providencia.

At 10 am...the government of nicaragua has issued a tropical storm
warning for the entire eastern coast of nicaragua.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

At 1000 am est...1500 utc...the center of tropical depression eleven
was located near latitude 11.6 north...longitude 82.0 west or about
65 miles...105 km...south-southwest of san andres island and about
125 miles...200 km...east-southeast of bluefields nicaragua.

The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph...13
km/hr...and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track the
center of the depression will be approaching the east coast of
nicaragua this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 5 to 7 inches over san andres island with maximum amounts of 12
inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 15 to 20 inches are
expected over eastern nicaragua and eastern honduras with maximum
amounts of 25 inches possible. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash flood and mud slides.

...summary of 1000 am est information...
Location...11.6n 82.0w
maximum sustained winds...35 mph
present movement...northwest or 315 degrees at 8 mph
minimum central pressure...1006 mb

an intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
center at 100 pm est followed by the next complete advisory at 400
pm est.

$$
forecaster blake/franklin