Thread: Tropical Depression Ida - inland

000
wtnt31 knhc 070835
tcpat1
bulletin
tropical storm ida advisory number 12
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112009
400 am est sat nov 07 2009

...ida strengthening...tropical storm watches issued for portions of
the yucatan peninsula and western cuba...

At 4 am est...0900 utc...the government of mexico has issued a
tropical storm watch for the yucatan peninsula from punta allen
northward to san felipe. A tropical storm watch means that
tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...
Generally within 36 hours.

At 4 am est...the government of cuba has issued a tropical storm
watch for the province of pinar del rio.

Interests elsewhere in the yucatan peninsula of mexico...western
cuba and the cayman islands should monitor the progress of ida.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

At 400 am est...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm ida was
located near latitude 17.1 north...longitude 84.1 west or about 135
miles...215 km...northeast of limon honduras and about 300 miles...
480 km...southeast of cozumel mexico.

Ida is moving toward the north near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A turn toward
the north-northwest with a gradual increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track...ida
will be approaching the yucatan channel on sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph...75 km/hr...
With higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next day or two.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.

The rainfall threat associated with ida is diminishing over
northeastern honduras...where additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches are possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are also
possible across the cayman islands.

...summary of 400 am est information...
location...17.1n 84.1w
maximum sustained winds...45 mph
present movement...north or 350 degrees at 8 mph
minimum central pressure...1002 mb

an intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
center at 700 am est followed by the next complete advisory at 1000
am est.

$$
forecaster brennan

Those models just keep changing!
This is one to keep a sharp eye on, for sure!

000
wtnt31 knhc 071156
tcpat1
bulletin
tropical storm ida intermediate advisory number 12a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112009
700 am est sat nov 07 2009

...ida continuing northward...

At 7 am est...1200 utc...the government of the cayman islands has
issued a tropical storm warning for grand cayman island. A
tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the yucatan peninsula
of mexico from punta allen northward to san felipe...and for the
cuban province of pinar del rio. A tropical storm watch means that
tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...
Generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the yucatan peninsula of mexico...western
cuba and the cayman islands should monitor the progress of ida.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

At 700 am est...1200 utc...the center of tropical storm ida was
located near latitude 17.4 north...longitude 84.1 west or about 220
miles...360 km...southwest of grand cayman island and about 280
miles...460 km...southeast of cozumel mexico.

Ida is moving toward the north near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A turn toward
the north-northwest with a gradual increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track...ida
will be approaching the yucatan channel on sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph...75 km/hr... With higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next
day or two.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.

The rainfall threat associated with ida is diminishing over
northeastern honduras...where additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches are possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are also
possible across the cayman islands.

...summary of 700 am est information...
Location...17.4n 84.1w
maximum sustained winds...45 mph
present movement...north or 350 degrees at 8 mph
minimum central pressure...1002 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
1000 am est.

$$
forecaster cangialosi/blake/brennan

This will change a few times, a lot depends on the front as well.

Does anyone know if this storm is likely to hit Miami or FLL on or around Thursday/Friday next week ? we land at Miami around 18-20pm local time on Thursday.

As of right now we don't know. Local weather here for Tuesday through Thursday is wind and rain. We should know better in a couple of days. As long as it doesn't turn into a hurricane around south Florida you should be OK.

tcdat1
tropical storm ida discussion number 13
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112009
1000 am est sat nov 07 2009

recent microwave imagery suggests that the structure of
ida has continued to improve this morning...with a couple of
hooking bands near the center. Visible imagery shows an expanding
central dense overcast feature and no obvious signs of significant
shear. The latest dvorak intensity estimates are 45 kt from both
agencies...but given the increase in organization since that time
the initial intensity has been raised to 50 kt. An air force
reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is currently en route to
investigate the storm.

Ida is moving northward or 355/8. Ida is expected to move
north-northwestward between a mid-level anticyclone over the
north-central caribbean sea and a deep-layer trough over southern
mexico. The track guidance is in good agreement through 36 to 48
hours and the nhc forecast remains in line with the model consensus
during that time. Thereafter...there is a large spread among the
models as to how ida interacts with a mid- to upper-level trough
digging into the northern gulf of mexico. The gfs...ecmwf...and
hwrf all move the cyclone quickly northward and show it reaching
the northern gulf coast in about 3 days as it becomes an
extratropical cyclone. The remainder of the guidance has trended
northward...but turns the system generally eastward before reaching
the northern gulf coast. For now...the official forecast is
between these two scenarios...but has been adjusted northward to
account for the latest trends.

Environmental conditions...while not ideal...appear conducive enough
for strengthening during the next day or so as the cyclone
traverses the northwest caribbean sea. The official forecast has
been adjusted upward from the previous one based on recent trends.
Once ida reaches the gulf of mexico...shear is forecast to increase
and waters begin to cool. These factors should contribute to
weakening...however the interaction with the upper-trough and an
expected extratropical transition will likely result in less
weakening than typical...given the strong shear.

Most of the global models show a large pressure gradient between
a high pressure ridge over the southeastern united states and the
tropical cyclone. This is already contributing to a large area of
strong winds over the southern gulf of mexico which is not directly
attributable to ida.

Forecast positions and max winds

initial 07/1500z 17.9n 84.1w 50 kt
12hr vt 08/0000z 18.9n 84.6w 55 kt
24hr vt 08/1200z 20.3n 85.5w 60 kt
36hr vt 09/0000z 22.2n 86.8w 55 kt
48hr vt 09/1200z 24.6n 88.0w 45 kt
72hr vt 10/1200z 28.5n 88.0w 45 kt...extratropical
96hr vt 11/1200z 29.0n 86.5w 40 kt...extratropical
120hr vt 12/1200z 28.0n 85.0w 35 kt...extratropical

$$
forecaster brown/cangialosi/blake