Thread: Tropical Depression Ida - inland

What Dr, Jeff Maters has just now written about TD 11 is wquite interesting indeed!

The forecast for TD 11
The forecast for TD 11 is highly complex with high uncertainty. Steering currents are weak in the Southwest Caribbean, and TD 11 will move slowly over the next two days. The future steering of TD 11 will strongly depend upon the development and track of the Invest 96E disturbance 500 miles to its west. If 96E develops and tracks northwards towards Guatemala, as suggested by the GFDL model, TD 11 would likely be steered northwards later this week, remaining over water as it approaches the Cayman Islands on Monday. If, on the other hand, 96E moves due west away from 97E, as suggested by the NOGAPS model, 97E might also move due west, over Nicaragua, and emerge over the Eastern Pacific early next week. Another complicating influence might be the development of an extratropical or subtropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday or Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the formation of a low pressure system over the Bay of Campeche this weekend, along the remains of an old cold front. This low is expected to track northwards towards Louisiana, and might act to also pull TD 11 northwards. The exact amount of steering influence this extratropical low and 96E might have on TD 11 depends strongly on how large and intense TD 11 becomes. At present, TD 11 is a very small system, and so is only being affecting by steering influences in its immediate vicinity


SOURCE: Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

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wtnt31 knhc 041752
tcpat1
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tropical depression eleven intermediate advisory number 1a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112009
100 pm est wed nov 04 2009

...tropical depression close to tropical storm strength...air force
plane is en route...

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the entire eastern
coast of nicaragua and for the islands of san andres and
providencia. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

At 100 pm est...1800 utc...the center of tropical depression eleven
was located near latitude 11.8 north...longitude 82.3 west or about
65 miles...105 km...southwest of san andres island and about
100 miles...160 km...east of bluefields nicaragua.

The depression has been moving toward the west-northwest near 7
mph...11 km/hr...but a slower motion is expected later today with a
turn toward the northwest. On the forecast track the center of the
depression will be near the east coast of nicaragua this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
this afternoon and further strengthening is expected until landfall.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 5 to 7 inches over san andres island with maximum amounts of 12
inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 15 to 20 inches are
expected over eastern nicaragua and eastern honduras with maximum
amounts of 25 inches possible. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash flood and mud slides.

...summary of 100 pm est information...
Location...11.8n 82.3w
maximum sustained winds...35 mph
present movement...west-northwest or 300 degrees at 7 mph
minimum central pressure...1006 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
400 pm est.

$$
forecaster blake/franklin

Tropical Storm IDA!

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wtnt31 knhc 042104
tcpat1
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tropical storm ida advisory number 2...corrected
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112009
400 pm est wed nov 04 2009

corrected depression to ida in rainfall statement

...the ninth tropical storm of the season forms...headed toward
nicaragua....

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the entire eastern
coast of nicaragua and for the islands of san andres and
providencia.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

At 400 pm est...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm ida was
located near latitude 12.0 north...longitude 82.7 west or about 75
miles...120 km...west-southwest of san andres island and about 75
miles...120 km...east of bluefields nicaragua.

Ida is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph...9 km/hr. A
turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track...ida
should make landfall along the east coast of nicaragua overnight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph...95 km/hr...
With higher gusts. Some further intensification of this system is
possible before landfall.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km
from the center.

The latest central pressure measured by an air force reconnaissance
plane is 996 mb...29.41 inches.

Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 7
inches over san andres island with maximum amounts of 12 inches
possible. Rainfall accumulations of 15 to 20 inches are expected
over eastern nicaragua and eastern honduras with maximum amounts of
25 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening
flash flood and mud slides.

...summary of 400 pm est information...
location...12.0n 82.7w
maximum sustained winds...60 mph
present movement...west-northwest or 300 degrees at 6 mph
minimum central pressure...996 mb

an intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
center at 700 pm est followed by the next complete advisory at 1000
pm est.

$$
forecaster blake/pasch

Intensifying

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wtnt61 knhc 042230
tcuat1
tropical storm ida tropical cyclone update
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al112009
530 pm est wed nov 04 2009
...ida a little stronger...hurricane watch issued...

At 530 pm est...2230 utc...the government of nicaragua has issued a
hurricane watch for the eastern coast of nicaragua from bluefields
northward to the honduras/nicaragua border. A tropical storm
warning remains in effect for the entire eastern coast of nicaragua
and for the islands of san andres and providencia.

Reports from an air force reserve reconnaissance plane investigating
ida indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 65 mph...100 km/hr.

Forecaster pasch/roberts

Looks like whe may want to be a hurricane before visiting Nicaragua!

Also - if she turns NW sooner rather than later, she experiences less land. In the last couple of hours, she seems to have done a slight NW'ward jog... don't know for sure, and even IF, don't know if it is beginning of a turn, or just a wobble...

Yuck! Ida seems to be up to NO Good!

Yes - for the moment, anyway.