WTPZ35 KNHC 182049
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 14...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009
CORRECTED MONDAY TO TUESDAY IN FOURTH PARAGRAPH
...RICK WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST OR ABOUT 450 MILES
...725 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 160 MPH...260
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WHILE GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...RICK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.4N 109.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
We are closely monitoring Hurricane Rick which has developed off the west coast of Mexico. This storm is forecast to make landfall on the southern tip of Baja California on Wednesday.
Due to the location of this storm, the following are the itinerary plans for the Carnival Splendor and Carnival Spirit departures today (October 18, 2009):
Carnival Splendor – The ship will visit Ensenada on Monday, Puerta Vallarta on Thursday and Cabo San Lucas on Friday.
Carnival Spirit – At this time, the ship is planning to operate the scheduled itinerary. However, changes may be required based on the actual path and speed of the storm.
Our highly trained officers and crew will do everything possible to minimize the impact to the cruise experience for our guests. The ships will navigate at a safe distance from the storm at all times. Carnival’s number one priority is the safety of our guests and crew.
This information will be updated if any additional changes are required.
It's possible that Holland and RC will announce changes tomorrow morning. So if those are of interest to you (you have friends or family onboard), you can check the cruiselines' websites. I don't know when I'll be getting online tomorrow, but if anyone in the meantime gets info, you can post it here.
000
wtpz35 knhc 190831
tcpep5
bulletin hurricane rick advisory number 16 nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep202009
200 am pdt mon oct 19 2009
...rick weakens further but still a dangerous hurricane...
At 2 am pdt...0900 utc...the government of mexico has issued a
hurricane watch for southern baja california from santa fe
southward on the west coast and from san evaristo southward on the
east coast...including cabo san lucas.
Interests in western mainland mexico should monitor the progress of
this hurricane.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
At 200 am pdt...0900 utc...the center of hurricane rick was located
near latitude 17.5 north...longitude 111.1 west or about 380 miles
...615 km...south-southwest of cabo san lucas mexico.
Rick is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr. A turn
toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected during
the next day or so. Rick is then forecast to accelerate toward the
north-northeast and northeast by late tuesday and early wednesday.
On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will be nearing
southern baja california by late tuesday or early wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph...205
km/hr...with higher gusts. Rick is a category three hurricane on
the saffir-simpson scale. Although additional weakening is
forecast during the next day or so...rick is still expected to be a
dangerous hurricane as it approaches the southern baja peninsula.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles...280 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches.
Large swells generated by rick will continue to affect portions of
the southern baja california coast and the west central coast of
mexico during the next couple of days...causing potentially
dangerous surf conditions.
...summary of 200 am pdt information...
Location...17.5n 111.1w maximum sustained winds...125 mph
present movement...northwest or 305 degrees at 10 mph minimum central pressure...950 mb
an intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
center at 500 am pdt followed by the next complete advisory at 800
am pdt.
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