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tropical storm rick advisory number 19 nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep202009
800 pm pdt mon oct 19 2009
...rick weakens to a tropical storm...watches adjusted for southern
baja california...
at 8 pm pdt...0300 utc...the government of mexico has changed the
hurricane watch to a tropical storm watch for southern baja
california from agua blanca southward on the west coast and from la
paz southward on the east coast...including cabo san lucas. A
tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A
tropical storm warning may be required for this area later tonight
or early tuesday.
At 8 pm pdt...0300 utc...the government of mexico has discontinued
the hurricane watch for southern baja california north of agua
blanca on the west coast and north of la paz on the east coast.
Additional watches or warnings may be required on tuesday for the
coast of western mainland mexico.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
At 800 pm pdt...0300 utc...the center of tropical storm rick was
located near latitude 19.1 north...longitude 111.8 west or about 290
miles...465 km...south-southwest of cabo san lucas mexico and about
55 miles... 90 km...west-northwest of socorro island.
Rick is moving toward the north near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A turn to
the north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed
is expected during the next day or so. On this track...the center
of rick is expected to pass near or just to the southeast of the
southern tip of baja california late tuesday or early wednesday...
And approach the western coast of mainland mexico on wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph...110 km/hr...
With higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 155 miles...250 km
from the center. A sustained wind of 41 mph...66 km/hr...with a
gust to 56 mph...91 km/hr...was recently reported at socorro
island.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb...29.18 inches.
Moisture associated with rick is already spreading across portions
of southern baja california and northwestern mexico. Total
rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated amounts of
10 inches...are possible over extreme southern baja california as
well as the states of sinaloa and durango in west-central mexico
during the next few days. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Large swells generated by rick will continue to affect portions of
the southern baja california coast and the west-central coast of
mexico during the next couple of days...causing potentially
dangerous surf conditions.
...summary of 800 pm pdt information...
Location...19.1n 111.8w
maximum sustained winds...70 mph
present movement...north or 350 degrees at 8 mph
minimum central pressure...988 mb
an intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
center at 1100 pm pdt followed by the next complete advisory at 200
am pdt.
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tropical storm rick intermediate advisory number 20a nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep202009
500 am pdt tue oct 20 2009
...rick moving slowly north-northeastward with little change in
strength...
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the west coast of
southern baja california from agua blanca southward...and for the
east coast from buena vista southward...including cabo san lucas.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the east coast of
southern baja california north of buena vista to la paz...and for
the coast of mainland mexico from el roblito northward through
altata. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in southern baja california and western mainland
mexico should continue to monitor the progress of rick.
For storm information specific to your area outside of the united
states...please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
At 500 am pdt...1200 utc...the center of tropical storm rick was
located near latitude 19.7 north...longitude 111.3 west or about
240 miles...380 km...south-southwest of cabo san lucas mexico.
Rick is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph...9 km/hr. A
turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected later today and wednesday. On this track...the center
of rick is expected to pass near or to the south of the southern tip
of baja california early wednesday...and approach the western coast
of mainland mexico on wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph...100 km/hr...
With higher gusts. Strong upper-level winds should cause additional
weakening during the next day or two.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 165 miles...270 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb...29.26 inches.
Moisture associated with rick is already spreading across portions
of southern baja california and northwestern mexico. Total
rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated amounts of
10 inches...are possible over extreme southern baja california as
well as the states of sinaloa and durango in west-central mexico
during the next few days. These rains could produce life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Large swells generated by rick will continue to affect portions of
the southern baja california coast and the west-central coast of
mexico during the next couple of days...causing potentially
dangerous surf conditions.
...summary of 500 am pdt information...
Location...19.7n 111.3w
maximum sustained winds...65 mph
present movement...north-northeast or 20 degrees at 6 mph
minimum central pressure...991 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
800 am pdt.
Trying to find source for this report: 10/20/2009 : Cabo San Lucas closes port today as Tropical Storm Rick approaches. NCL, Royal Caribbean cancel calls.
Well, if you look at this graphic, they have no choice.
That's the chart for the "Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule."
The Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule, or "Danger area", is indicated by shading. The 1-2-3 Rule, commonly taught to mariners, refers to the rounded long-term NHC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. The contour defining the shaded area is constructed by accounting for those errors and then broadened further to reflect the maximum tropical storm force (34 knot) wind radii forecast at each of those times by the NHC. The NHC does not warrant that avoiding these danger areas will eliminate the risk of harm from tropical cyclones.
We are closely monitoring Tropical Storm Rick which has developed off the west coast of Mexico. The storm is forecast to pass south of Cabo San Lucas tonight and make landfall on Mexico’s mainland on Wednesday.
The following are the itinerary plans for the October 18, 2009 departures on Carnival Splendor and Carnival Spirit: Carnival Splendor – The ship visited Ensenada on Monday and will call in Puerta Vallarta on Thursday and Cabo San Lucas on Friday. Carnival Spirit – The ship will operate the scheduled itinerary.
Our highly trained officers and crew will do everything possible to minimize the impact to the cruise experience for our guests. The ships will navigate at a safe distance from the storm at all times. Carnival’s number one priority is the safety of our guests and crew.
This information will be updated if any additional changes are required.
Tropical Weather Update
October 19, 2009
12:00 p.m. E.S.T
Royal Caribbean International continues to closely monitor the itinerary of Radiance of the Seas due to Hurricane Rick, and will update this information again today, October 19 at 6:00 p.m. E.S.T.
Radiance of the Seas is scheduled to depart San Diego, California, today. According to the most recent weather forecasts, the ship will be able to depart on time and head south to Ensenada, Mexico. However, it is too early to know if the storm track will permit the ship to continue to visit Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, on Thursday. Should the ship be unable to visit Cabo San Lucas, an alternate itinerary has been arranged, in which guests would visit Ensenada, Mexico, Los Angeles and Catalina Island, California.
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