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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU OCT 1 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A
DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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tropical storm olaf advisory number 2
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep182009
200 pm pdt thu oct 01 2009
...fifteenth tropical storm of the season forms...
at 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm olaf was
located near latitude 19.4 north...longitude 117.8 west or about 565
miles...905 km...west-southwest of the southern tip of baja
california.
Olaf is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph...9 km/hr. A
turn toward the northwest is expected later today or tonight...
Followed by a turn toward the north on friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. A little additional strengthening is possible late today or
tonight. Weakening is expected to begin on friday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
...summary of 200 pm pdt information...
Location...19.4n 117.8w
maximum sustained winds...40 mph
present movement...west-northwest or 300 degrees at 6 mph
minimum central pressure...1002 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
800 pm pdt.
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tropical storm olaf advisory number 4
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep182009
200 am pdt fri oct 02 2009
...olaf turns northward...
At 200 am pdt...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm olaf was
located near latitude 22.0 north...longitude 117.5 west or about 490
miles...785 km...west of the southern tip of baja california.
Olaf is moving toward the north near 12 mph...19 km/hr. A
turn toward the northeast is expected during the next couple
of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
12 hours followed by gradual weakening.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
...summary of 200 am pdt information...
Location...22.0n 117.5w
maximum sustained winds...45 mph
present movement...north or 360 degrees at 12 mph
minimum central pressure...1000 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
800 am pdt.
As of now, the projected track takes him right into the mid section of the Baja - but only after he weakens to a Low. We should still keep an eye on him, as there's still a possibility of rough seas for some of our cruising friends. Right now, it looks like a path that the ships can navigate around, as most will be headed back northward today.
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