000
wtpz33 knhc 291444
tcpep3
bulletin
hurricane jimena advisory number 4
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep132009
800 am pdt sat aug 29 2009
...jimena now a hurricane...could become a major hurricane by
tomorrow...
At 800 am pdt...1500 utc...the eye of hurricane jimena was
located by satellite imagery near latitude 14.3 north...longitude
103.2 west or about 285 miles...455 km...southwest of acapulco
mexico and about 335 miles...535 km...south-southeast of manzanillo
mexico.
Jimena is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...
And this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple
of days with a turn toward the northwest late on sunday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph...130
km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely and
jimena could become a major hurricane by tomorrow.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60
miles...95 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb...29.06 inches.
...summary of 800 am pdt information...
Location...14.3n 103.2w
maximum sustained winds...80 mph
present movement...west-northwest or 285 degrees at 9 mph
minimum central pressure...984 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
200 pm pdt.
525
wtpz33 knhc 292033
tcpep3
bulletin
hurricane jimena advisory number 5
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep132009
200 pm pdt sat aug 29 2009
...jimena now a category 2 hurricane...
At 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...the center of hurricane jimena was
located near latitude 15.1 north...longitude 104.2 west or about 270
miles...435 km...south of manzanillo mexico and about 655 miles...
1055 km...southeast of the southern tip of baja california.
Jimena is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...
And a motion between west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Jimena is a category two hurricane on the saffir-simpson
scale. Strengthening is forecast and jimena could become a major
hurricane by sunday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70
miles...110 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb...28.64 inches.
...summary of 200 pm pdt information...
Location...15.1n 104.2w
maximum sustained winds...105 mph
present movement...west-northwest or 300 degrees at 12 mph
minimum central pressure...970 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
800 pm pdt.
$$
forecaster blake
523
wtpz43 knhc 292033
tcdep3
hurricane jimena discussion number 5
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep132009
200 pm pdt sat aug 29 2009
visible satellite images show that jimena has a small central dense
overcast...along with impressive banding features to the north and
south of the center. However...during the past couple of hours the
tiny eye has become less distinct with some warming of the
thunderstorm cloud tops. Satellite classifications have been
playing catch up all day...now 90 kt from both tafb/sab...and this
will be the initial intensity. The only foreseeable way that jimena
would stop intensifying during the next day or so is an eyewall
cycle...which is a possibility given the small eye and a moat of
drier air seen on microwave imagery. Otherwise...all environmental
conditions favor the development of a powerful category four
hurricane due to extremely warm waters...as much as 1.5c warmer
than average...and low shear. It is notable that jimena will be
traversing the warmest waters in the basin over the next 48
hours...which have been untapped by tropical cyclones so far this
season. The nhc forecast is fairly close to a blend of the lgem and
the ships model...and shows another rapid intensification period
during the first 24 hours. Weakening should commence in about
2-3 days due to cooling waters and perhaps an increase in shear.
The formation of the eye has led to a more reliable initial motion
of 300/10...to the right of the previous estimate. A motion
between west-northwest and northwest is likely for the next couple
of days as the hurricane is steered around the southwestern portion
of a weak mid-level ridge over mexico. The hurricane and global
models are still in a large disagreement over how much a mid- to
upper-level trough over baja california will effect jimena. The
right side of the guidance envelope consists of the gfdl/hwrf...
Which insists that jimena will turn to the north-northwest tomorrow
and threaten baja california or western mexico. All of the other
guidance maintain enough of a ridge between the trough and jimena
to continue a northwestward motion of the hurricane for several
days...keeping jimena farther away from mexico. Although the
hwrf/gfdl have historically had an eastward bias for these types of
systems...the global models have generally made a small eastward
adjustment in their 1200 utc forecasts. The nhc forecast is
shifted a little to the right of the previous one...between the
model consensus and the global models. This forecast has to be
considered low confidence due to the big differences between the
hwrf/gfdl and the rest of the guidance.
Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers
-
Centrum Deck
-
Ask a Cruise Question
-
Hurricane Watch
-
TD Jimena - just off the baja peninsula
#
Looks like it's favorable for her to increase in power rapidly. 
Linear Mode
