Tropical depression Danny - (was 92L) - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 08-24-2009, 02:30 PM

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2009, DB, O, 2009082412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922009
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AL, 92, 2009082318, , BEST, 0, 146N, 500W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2009082400, , BEST, 0, 152N, 520W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2009082406, , BEST, 0, 159N, 540W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2009082412, , BEST, 0, 165N, 560W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

sue miller · 08-24-2009, 02:33 PM

sue miller · 08-24-2009, 02:48 PM

Axnt20 knhc 241737
twdat

tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
205 pm edt mon aug 24 2009

an active tropical wave is along 56w s of 20n moving w near 18
kt. An inverted-v feature is apparent in the low-level cloud
structure in visible satellite imagery. The wave also coincides
with a deep layer moisture maximum observed in total
precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate/isolated strong
convection is from 15n-22n between 52w-58w. This activity is
enhanced by upper level diffluence.

The caribbean sea...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms are n of honduras from 16n-18n
between 82w-89w. This activity may be enhanced by the broad
cyclonic flow around the tropical wave along 74w. The tropical
wave is also enhancing showers/thunderstorms across the sw and s
central caribbean...see above. This activity is also enhanced by
surface convergence near the e pacific itcz and a 1007 mb low
over panama near 8n78w. Dry air and subsidence aloft around the
upper level high over cuba near 23n80w is bringing generally
fair weather across the remainder of the central caribbean. A
few isolated showers/possible thunderstorms are across puerto
rico and the lesser antilles due to upper level diffluence
between an upper level low in the atlc near 26n63w and an upper
level high to e near 19n45w. Expect a tropical wave currently
along 56w to reach the ne caribbean later tonight.

The atlantic ocean...
A stationary front across central florida extends from 29n81w to
31n80w continuing nne as a cold front. Scattered
showers/thunderstorms are within 200 nm ahead of the front
affecting the nw bahamas. This activity is also supported by
upper level diffluence between the strong upper level trough
over the ern conus and an upper level ridge that extends from an
upper level high over cuba near 23n80w. To the e of the ridge a
strong upper level low is centered near 26n63w. Upper level
diffluence between this low and an upper level high near 19n45w
is supporting scattered showers/thunderstorms from 18n-26n
between 60w-67w. Shower activity to the e of this area is
supported by the tropical wave along 56w...see above. Elsewhere
across the atlc...a broad surface ridge dominates anchored by a
1027 mb high near 36n48w.

$$
walton

sue miller · 08-24-2009, 10:05 PM

ABNT20 KNHC 242331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ABOUT 300 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 25
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
118 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...

WED...CONTINUED SLIGHT RETROGRADE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA.
THE MODELS SHOW HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND POCKET OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH WITH A TROPICAL WAVE/SURFACE LOW
OUT TOWARDS 70W WILL PROVIDE NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS. THIS FLOW
PATTERN DURING THE WET SEASON IS USUALLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AND THE
MAIN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR/WEST
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. THE LATEST MOS POPS ARE 30-40 PERCENT BUT
WILL KEEP CURRENT 30 POP FORECAST INTACT UNTIL THE MODELS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WAVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THURS-SUN...MUCH UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AS
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE GFS NOW WANTS TO DRAG THE WAVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
WHICH WOULD GREATLY INCREASE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THURS
INTO FRI. HOWEVER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF KEEPS THE WAVE JUST EAST
OF THE AREA AND DEVELOPS IT INTO A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AS IT BUILDS
NORTH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF FOR NOW
AND HOLD ONTO NEAR NORMAL POPS AROUND 40% FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM
AS PLACEMENT WILL BE KEY TO HOW RAIN CHANCES WILL PLAY OUT.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY

canarymoon · 08-25-2009, 04:04 AM

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOO
KNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 275MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATEDWITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THERE ARENO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...BUT UPPER-LEVELWINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENTDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARD THEWEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

canarymoon · 08-25-2009, 04:04 AM

sue miller · 08-25-2009, 09:19 AM

Code Red

ABNT20 KNHC 251146
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 300
MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. EARLY MORNING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

sue miller · 08-25-2009, 03:13 PM

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

An area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure interacting with an upper-level low is centered about
325 miles north-northeast of san juan puerto rico. This system
continues to show some signs of organization...and upper-level
winds are forecast to become more conducive for development
during the next day or so as the system moves west-northwestward
around 20 mph. There is a high chance...greater than 50
percent...of this system becoming a tropical depression or tropical
storm during the next 48 hours. A reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the area later this afternoon. Interests
in the bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.

$$
forecaster brown

canarymoon · 08-25-2009, 03:37 PM

Well, it was still Orange at 3 am when I posted, and hadn't checked back since then,.. I see it went read at 8 AM.
Pretty close to FL, and right at the Bahamas. Will need to keep a close eye on this one...

sue miller · 08-25-2009, 08:39 PM

abnt20 knhc 252317
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 pm edt tue aug 25 2009

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

An air force reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the area
of disturbed weather about 350 miles north of san juan puerto rico
found a surface trough of low pressure but did not find a closed
circulation. However...the aircraft did report gale-force winds in
the area. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive
for development...and this system has the potential to become a
tropical storm at any time as it continues moving west-northwestward
around 20 mph. There is a high chance...greater than 50 percent...
Of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Interests
in the bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.

Additional information on marine warnings associated with this
system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the national
weather service...under awips header nfdhsfat1 and wmo header
fznt01 kwbc.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster pasch/berg