Thread: Tropical depression Danny - (was 92L)

000
wtnt35 knhc 280840
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm danny advisory number 8
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al052009
500 am edt fri aug 28 2009

...danny barely a tropical storm...

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the north carolina coast
from cape lookout northward to duck...including the pamlico and
albemarle sounds. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...in this
case...within the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere from the carolinas northward to new england and
the canadian maritimes should monitor the progress of danny.
Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of this
area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the united
states...please monitor products issued by your local national
weather service forecast office. For storm information specific to
your area outside of the united states...please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

At 500 am edt...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm danny was
estimated near latitude 29.5 north...longitude 74.4 west or about
400 miles...640 km...south of cape hatteras north carolina.

Danny is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A
turn to the north with an increase in forward speed is expected
today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph...65
km/hr...with higher gusts...but these winds are confined to the
northeast of the center. There is small opportunity for slight
restrengthening today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...335 km
to the northeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an air force plane was 1008
mb...29.77 inches.

Large swells from danny are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents along the u.s. East
coast during the next day or two. Please consult statements issued
by your local national weather service forecast office for more
details.

...summary of 500 am edt information...
Location...29.5n 74.4w
maximum sustained winds...40 mph
present movement...north-northwest or 330 degrees at 9 mph
minimum central pressure...1008 mb

an intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
center at 800 am edt followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am edt.

$$
forecaster avila

Much better. Only issue is this............


LARGE SWELLS FROM DANNY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.


Keep watching today's advisories. Loooking much better this morning Sandie

Wocn31 cwhx 281200
tropical storm danny information statement issued by the
canadian hurricane centre of environment canada at 9.00 am adt
friday 28 august 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 pm adt

... Danny weakened overnight...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

at 9.00 am adt... Tropical storm danny was located near latitude
30.1 n and longitude 75.2 w... About 310 nautical miles or 570 km
south of cape hatteras, nc. Maximum sustained winds are estimated
at 35 knots... 65 km/h... And central pressure at 1008 mb. Danny is
moving north-northwest at 8 knots... 15 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

date time lat lon mslp max wind
adt mb kts kmh
aug 28 9.00 am 30.1n 75.2w 1008 35 65
aug 28 9.00 pm 32.6n 74.3w 1000 45 83
aug 29 9.00 am 36.4n 72.8w 1000 45 83
aug 29 9.00 pm 40.8n 69.5w 1002 40 74
aug 30 9.00 am 44.2n 65.0w 1002 40 74 transitioning
aug 30 9.00 pm 46.4n 60.6w 1002 40 74 post-tropical
aug 31 9.00 am 49.1n 54.4w 1002 40 74 post-tropical
aug 31 9.00 pm 51.1n 49.5w 1004 40 74 post-tropical
sep 01 9.00 am 52.4n 39.6w 1002 40 74 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
eventually danny will produce rain on sunday
but it is too early to determine amounts.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
danny will weaken as it moves through canadian waters.
It has now become less likely that hurricane winds will occur
upon entering the marine district. The winds will diminish as it
continues to move over colder waters. Gale warnings have been
posted for western maritimes waters in the 3.00 am marine
forecast...there is some potential for storm force winds over
southern waters on sunday...these warnings.. If needed.. Would not
be issued until 3.00 am saturday.

5. Technical discussion for meteorologists

a. Analysis
when satellite images resumed after eclipse danny appeared to have
become more organised with convection occurring near to the
surface centre and apparent outflow aloft. This is consistent with
our expectation that some intensification was likely as the
shear decreased.
It also appears to be moving in a more northerly direction. This
will need to be confirmed when a visible satellite loop is available...
Wind reports from a noaa aircraft indicate the strongest winds to
have lowered to 35 knots and initial wind speed forecasts are
therefore reduced further from the previous bulletin.

B. Prognostic
our track agrees with nhc...which is similar to our previous track.
Model forecast tracks mostly move danny along the spine of nova
scotia and then eastwards across central newfoundland. There are a
couple of models which bring it south of nova scotia and one outlier
brings it further west across cape cod and then over central new
brunswick.
There is still some potential for some re-strengthening as danny
moves through weakening shear...wind strength is forecast to
increase to 45 knots as it passes to the east of cape hatteras today.
After that danny will come under the influence of an upper trough
digging over the central us which will increase the forward speed
and steering it in a northeasterly direction. Shear will
increase and danny will move over the colder waters of the gulf of
maine ...making it less likely that it will achieve hurricane
strength...the majority of numerical models keep it below
hurricane strength.


C. Public weather
decaying tropical systems often produce heavy rain over the
maritimes and past experience indicates that locally higher
amounts may be produced. Dynamic models are producing the
expected qpfs of 70 to 100 mm with the location of the maximums
varying from model to model..
Impacts from a storm which crosses the coast are very different
from one which travels along the coast...a storm of lesser
intensity can produce much stronger winds and consequent damage
to the right of its track. Danny will be monitored very closely
until its development and track become more apparent.

D. Marine weather
wind radii initialised on yesterday mornings quikscat pass...
Last nights quikscat pass only captured the outer edges of the
wind field...and modelled thereafter for a somewhat weakened system.

Predicted wind radii (nm)
time gales storms hurricane
ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
28/12z 200 200 5 155 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
29/00z 200 200 35 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
29/12z 200 200 65 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/00z 200 200 85 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/12z 200 200 85 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/00z 200 200 90 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/12z 200 200 80 105 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/00z 200 200 95 135 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/12z 200 200 110 165 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


end mcildoon/hatt/mercer

000
wtnt35 knhc 281432
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm danny advisory number 9
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al052009
1100 am edt fri aug 28 2009

...danny remains disorganized...

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the north carolina coast
from cape lookout northward to duck...including the pamlico and
albemarle sounds. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...in this case...
Within 24 hours. A tropical storm warning may be required for
portions of this area later today.

Interests elsewhere from the carolinas northward to new england and
the canadian maritimes should monitor the progress of danny.
Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of this
area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the united
states...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the united states...please monitor products issued
by your national meteorological service.

At 1100 am edt...1500 utc...the center of tropical storm danny was
located near latitude 30.1 north...longitude 75.5 west or about 350
miles...565 km...south of cape hatteras north carolina and about 830
miles...1335 km...south-southwest of nantucket massachusetts.

While danny has been moving toward the west over the past couple of
hours...a motion toward the northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr...is
expected to resume soon. A turn toward the north and the north-
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later
today and tonight. On the forecast track...the center of danny is
expected to pass near the outer banks of north carolina overnight...
Approach the coast of southeastern new england late saturday
night...and move near the canadian maritimes early sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today...with little
change in intensity forecast after that time.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
...mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Large swells from danny are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents along the u.s. East
coast during the next day or two. Please consult statements issued
by your local national weather service forecast office for more
details.

...summary of 1100 am edt information...
Location...30.1n 75.5w
maximum sustained winds...40 mph
present movement...northwest or 325 degrees at 10 mph
minimum central pressure...1008 mb

an intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
center at 200 pm edt followed by the next complete advisory at 500
pm edt.

$$
forecaster brennan

Originally Posted by sue miller

Much better. Only issue is this............


LARGE SWELLS FROM DANNY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.


Keep watching today's advisories. Loooking much better this morning Sandie

The real question is.....where's the Pride right now? Will she make it back to port in Baltimore early or late?

Originally Posted by Sandie

The real question is.....where's the Pride right now? Will she make it back to port in Baltimore early or late?

Last report I got on the location of the Pride was at 7:00 this morning.

Pride is sailing in waters off the coast of Ga with Wave heights of only 7'. As of now, all is looking good. Sail away day will have some showers early then some Sun, with showers returning for the evening. Danny will be well off shore and no threat at this time. Seas should be at 9' once cruising in the Atlantic, early Sunday morning.

Originally Posted by Char

Last report I got on the location of the Pride was at 7:00 this morning.

Thanks for the update, Char! Now, as long as there are no airport delays! (LOL)

000
wtnt35 knhc 281739
tcpat5
bulletin
tropical storm danny intermediate advisory number 9a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al052009
200 pm edt fri aug 28 2009

...danny nearly stationary...air force reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft currently investigating the storm...

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the north carolina coast
from cape lookout northward to duck...including the pamlico and
albemarle sounds. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...in this case...
Within 24 hours. A tropical storm warning may be required for
portions of this area later today.

Interests elsewhere from the carolinas northward to new england and
the canadian maritimes should monitor the progress of danny.
Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of this
area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the united
states...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local national weather service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the united states...please monitor products issued
by your national meteorological service.

At 200 pm edt...1800 utc...the center of tropical storm danny was
located by an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft near
latitude 30.1 north...longitude 75.7 west or about 355 miles...570
km...south of cape hatteras north carolina and about 830 miles
...1340 km...south-southwest of nantucket massachusetts.

Danny has been nearly stationary over the past few hours. However...
A motion toward the north-northwest around 10 mph...17 km/hr...is
expected to resume later today. A turn toward the north and the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
tonight. On the forecast track...the center of danny is expected to
pass near the outer banks of north carolina overnight or early
saturday...approach the coast of southeastern new england
saturday...and move near the canadian maritimes early sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today...with little
change in intensity forecast after that time.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
...mainly to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure measure by an air force reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft was 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Large swells from danny are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents along the u.s. East
coast during the next day or two. Please consult statements issued
by your local national weather service forecast office for more
details.

...summary of 200 pm edt information...
Location...30.1n 75.7w
maximum sustained winds...40 mph
present movement...stationary
minimum central pressure...1007 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
500 pm edt.

$$
forecaster brennan