Tropical depression Danny - (was 92L) - Page 2 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 08-26-2009, 08:09 AM

Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
805 am edt wed aug 26 2009

...special features...
A surface trough is along 27n67w 24n69w 21n69w...moving
westward about 15 kt. Gale force winds are within 150 nm of
24n69w in the northeastern semicircle. The data from the air
force reserve reconnaissance plane that flew through this area
during the times from 25/1900 utc until 25/2100 utc did not
show a closed cyclonic circulation at the surface, but the
27n67w 21n69w surface trough. A middle level to upper
level trough also just happens to be in the same neighborhood
as the surface trough and the area of gale-force winds.
Scattered strong showers and thunderstorms cover the atlantic
ocean from 23n to 26n between 64w and 69w. Showers also cover
the rest of the area from haiti to 32n between 63w and 75w.
It is possible that a tropical cyclone may form in this area
during the next 48 hours.

canarymoon · 08-26-2009, 09:20 AM

Recon is there againn right now
We need to pay attention - it's close by ... With gale fore winds already, probably would have been a TS before now had it not been for the upper level low over it, which was supressing it with colder, dryer air.

canarymoon · 08-26-2009, 09:24 AM

087
abnt20 knhc 261138
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt wed aug 26 2009

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

satellite imagery indicates that the area of disturbed weather
centered about 470 miles east of nassau in the bahamas is
developing a well-defined circulation. The system could develop
into a tropical depression...or more likely a tropical storm...at
any time as it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph...and if
current trends continue advisories will be initiated later today.
There is a high chance...greater than 50 percent...of tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Interests in the
bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. A noaa
hurricane hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate this
system.

additional information on marine warnings associated with this
system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the national
weather service...under awips header nfdhsfat1 and wmo header
fznt01 kwbc.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster beven

Char · 08-26-2009, 09:29 AM

Maybe this one won't affect the US coast too much.

canarymoon · 08-26-2009, 10:43 AM

WTNT01 KNGU 261201
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 261201Z AUG 09//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.5N 68.5W TO 30.0N 75.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 261200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.5N 69.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.

2.REMARKS: AT 26/12Z LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELON-
GATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WITH A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
PRESENT, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470NM EAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN
THROUGH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS AREA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
RANGING FROM 27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SYSTEM ARE SOUTHERLY 20 TO 25 KTS. HOWEVER,
UPPER-LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS DECREASING NORTHWESTWARD OF THIS AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS AN ENVIRONMENT
WHERE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

3. THIS ALERT IS VALID UNTIL BY 271200Z AUG 09.
//

canarymoon · 08-26-2009, 10:51 AM

What Dr Jeff Masters is saying ini his blog:

First-light satellite images of the tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahama Islands show that the system has developed an organized surface circulation, and 92L will likely be named Tropical Storm Danny later today. . . . This morning's QuikSCAT pass confirms the presence of a surface circulation . . . The Hurricane Hunters are in 92L, and have found surface winds up to 57 mph so far this morning.

sue miller · 08-26-2009, 11:07 AM

Here we go, Lets hope this turns as well

canarymoon · 08-26-2009, 11:10 AM

Yep. Less certainty on this one at this point.
Models have been trending west... but then, until now, it's just been Too SOON to put much credence in the models, as they did not have a wwell-defined center to initialize on.

Now that that has developed and been located, the nexxt couple of model runs should be a bit more informative ... we'll soon see.

sue miller · 08-26-2009, 11:14 AM

We have learned to never depend on models, anything can change even in the last few minutes.

canarymoon · 08-26-2009, 11:15 AM

You bet it can ... Charley!