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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICALSTORM HILDA...LOCATED ABOUT 1125 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII.
1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OFMANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERSAND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENTOF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THEWEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.
713
abpz20 knhc 230527
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1100 pm pdt sat aug 22 2009
for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..
The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
storm hilda...located about 1155 miles east-southeast of hilo
hawaii.
a tropical wave located about 560 miles southwest of manzanillo
mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Conditions appear favorable for slow development of
this system during the next couple days as it moves toward the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. There is a medium chance...30 to 50
percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours.
elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
Public advisories on hilda are issued under wmo header wtpz31 knhc
and under awips header miatcpep1. Forecast/advisories are issued
under wmo header wtpz21 knhc and under awips header miatcmep1.
060
abpz20 knhc 231751
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1100 am pdt sun aug 23 2009
for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..
Tropical storm hilda has entered the central pacific basin and is
located about 1070 miles east-southeast of hilo hawaii. The next
advisory on hilda will be issued by the central pacific hurricane
center.
a broad area of low pressure has formed about 450 miles west-
southwest of manzanillo mexico in association with a tropical wave.
This system is gradually becoming better organized and has the
potential to develop into a tropical depression during the day or
two as it moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. There is a high
chance...greater than 50 percent...of this system becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
Public advisories on hilda are issued under wmo header wtpz31 knhc
and under awips header miatcpep1. Forecast/advisories are issued
under wmo header wtpz21 knhc and under awips header miatcmep1.
Tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1100 pm pdt sun aug 23 2009
for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..
showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 700 miles west of manzanillo mexico have
changed little in organization this evening. However...upper level
conditions are expected to become more favorable for this system to
develop into a tropical depression during the next day or two as it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. There is a high
chance...greater than 50 percent...of this system becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
Msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen pearl harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/tropical cyclone formation alert//
rmks/
1. Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within
150 nm either side of a line from 16.0n 114.6w to 17.8n 121.5w
within the next 12 to 24 hours. Available data does not justify
issuance of numbered tropical cyclone warnings at this time.
Winds in the area are estimated to be 17 to 22 knots. Metsat im-
agery at 240600z indicates that a circulation center is located
near 16.1n 115.2w. The system is moving westward at 14 knots.
2. Remarks:
The area of convection previously located near 16.1n 113.7w is now
located near 16.1n 115.2w, approximately 290 nm west-southwest of
socorro island, mexico. Recent animated infrared imagery indicates
that the convection is beginning to consolidate around a broad
circulation near 16n 117w. A 240526z 89 ghz ssmis microwave imagery
shows deep convection both east and west of the low level
circulation center (llcc) and a 240845z infrared image shows weak
convective banding wrapping into the llcc from the east, southeast
and southwest. Upper level analysis reveals a region of upper level
diffluence to the south and an upper level ridge to the northeast of
the llcc and these are providing both equatorward and poleward
outflow respectively. The system is also located in a region of low
vertical wind shear and 29c sea surface temperatures. Maximum
sustained surface winds are estimated at 17 to 22 knots. Minimum sea
level pressure is estimated to be near 1007 mb. Due to increased
consolidation of the llcc, the potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hour is good.
3. This alert will be reissued, upgraded to warning or cancelled by
251030z.//
nnnn
Special tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
555 pm edt mon aug 24 2009
for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...
Special outlook issued to add discussion of area in the southwestern
caribbean.
Updated...a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern
caribbean sea is producing scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity. Any further development of this system should be slow to
occur due to proximity to land. Regardless of development...heavy
rainfall is possible over nicaragua...costa rica...and panama
tonight and tuesday as the low moves westward at 20 to 25 mph.
There is a low chance...less than 30 percent...of this system
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
000
wtpz32 knhc 250233
tcpep2
bulletin
tropical storm ignacio advisory number 2
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep122009
800 pm pdt mon aug 24 2009
...depression becomes the ninth tropical storm of the east pacific
season...
at 800 pm pdt...0300 utc...the center of tropical storm ignacio was
located near latitude 17.0 north...longitude 117.8 west or about 655
miles...1055 km...southwest of the southern tip of baja california.
Ignacio is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr.
A turn toward the northwest with a slight increase in forward speed
is expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before ignacio reaches cooler
waters in a day or two.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.
...summary of 800 pm pdt information...
Location...17.0n 117.8w
maximum sustained winds...40 mph
present movement...west-northwest or 290 degrees at 10 mph
minimum central pressure...1004 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
200 am pdt.
tropical storm ignacio discussion number 3
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep122009
200 am pdt tue aug 25 2009
a series of microwave images received during the past few hours
indicate that the low-level center of ignacio was a little bit to
the north than previously indicated and removed from the main
convection. However...a new area of deep convection is currently
developing near the center. The outflow is established in the
southern semicircle only...suggesting that there is some northerly
shear affecting the cyclone. Dvorak t-number have not changed and
the initial intensity is kept at 35 knots. In fact...an ascat pass
just came in and shows 35-kt winds...the data helped to adjust the
initial wind radii. Ignacio has the potential to gather some
strength before it moves over cooler water in a couple of days.
Thereafter... A weakening is indicated and by days 4 and 5
ignacio should have become a remnant low.
With the small relocation of the center...the initial motion is now
295 degrees or west-northwest at 10 knots...which is not too
different from the previous advisory motion. Ignacio is already on
the western edge of the subtropical ridge while a large mid-level
trough is approaching the cyclone from the northwest. This pattern
calls for ignacio to gradually turn more to the northwest during
the next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter...ignacio should turn to the west
steered by the low-level flow as it becomes a shallow remnant low.
This is the solution provided by most of the guidance and the
official forecast is in the middle of the track guidance envelope.
The new forecast track was adjusted northward a little bit due to
the small relocation of the center and not because of a change in
the steering pattern.
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