Tropical Storm Ignacio - SW of Baja (was 93E) - Page 2 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 08-25-2009, 03:17 PM

Wtpz32 knhc 251442
tcpep2
bulletin
tropical storm ignacio advisory number 4
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep122009
800 am pdt tue aug 25 2009

...ignacio slightly stronger...

At 800 am pdt...1500 utc...the center of tropical storm ignacio was
located near latitude 18.6 north...longitude 119.3 west or about 675
miles...1090 km...west-southwest of the southern tip of baja
california.

Ignacio is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr
...and a turn to the northwest is expected later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph...85
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours before ignacio reaches
cooler waters.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

...summary of 800 am pdt information...
Location...18.6n 119.3w
maximum sustained winds...50 mph
present movement...west-northwest or 295 degrees at 12 mph
minimum central pressure...1000 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
200 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster kimberlain/walton

canarymoon · 08-25-2009, 03:38 PM

Cranking up . . .

sue miller · 08-25-2009, 08:46 PM

tropical storm ignacio discussion number 5
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep122009
200 pm pdt tue aug 25 2009

visible satellite pictures suggest that the cloud pattern of ignacio
has become better organized...with some hint of the beginning stage
of a central dense overcast forming. Even though the northwest
semicircle is void of deep convective clouds...a well-defined band
is observed over the southeast semicircle. Dvorak t-numbers remain
at t3.0 from both tafb and sab and the official intensity is
maintained at 45 kt. A 1417 utc quikscat pass revealed a few
uncontaminated 45-50 kt wind vectors...which agree well with the
current intensity estimate. Even though the shear should remain
relatively light...the window of opportunity for strengthening will
be closing soon since the cyclone should remain over 26.5c waters
for less than 12 hours. Thereafter...progressively cooler waters
along the forecast track should cause rapid weakening...and ignacio
is expected to become a remnant low by 72 hours.

The earlier quikscat pass and recent visible satellite fixes have
yielded fairly high confidence estimates of the center location.
Based upon those estimates...the initial motion is 300/11. There
has been little change to the official forecast track. Ignacio
should maintain a northwesterly course as it moves around the
western periphery of a deep-layer anticyclone extending from the
southern united states into the east pacific to near 130w. Toward
the end of the period...the cyclone should assume a more westerly
track once ignacio weakens and becomes more shallow. The official
track differs little from the previous advisory and lies between the
previous forecast and the model consensus.

Forecast positions and max winds

initial 25/2100z 19.4n 120.3w 45 kt
12hr vt 26/0600z 20.4n 121.8w 50 kt
24hr vt 26/1800z 21.9n 123.8w 50 kt
36hr vt 27/0600z 23.6n 125.7w 45 kt
48hr vt 27/1800z 25.2n 127.6w 35 kt
72hr vt 28/1800z 27.0n 130.5w 25 kt...remnant low
96hr vt 29/1800z 27.0n 134.0w 20 kt...remnant low
120hr vt 30/1800z...dissipated

$$
forecaster kimberlain

sue miller · 08-26-2009, 08:04 AM

tropical storm ignacio discussion number 7
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep122009
200 am pdt wed aug 26 2009

the cloud pattern continues to have the shape of a tropical storm
with cyclonically-curved convective bands and a symmetric outflow.
However...the convection has been gradually weakening. Dvorak
t-numbers still suggest that the initial intensity is 45 kt and
quikscat data continues to show that these winds are mostly
confined to the eastern semicircle. Ignacio is already over cooler
waters and weakening should begin soon and the cyclone should
become a remnant low in two days or earlier.

The best estimate of the initial motion is 305 degrees or northwest
at 12 knots. Ignacio is located on the western edge of the
subtropical ridge and should continue to be steered toward the
northwest. This is also the solution provided by track models and
so does the official forecast. In about 48 hours...the shallow
remnant low will likely move more to the west steered by the
low-level flow.

Forecast positions and max winds

initial 26/0900z 21.1n 122.5w 45 kt
12hr vt 26/1800z 22.2n 124.1w 40 kt
24hr vt 27/0600z 24.0n 126.0w 35 kt
36hr vt 27/1800z 25.5n 128.0w 30 kt
48hr vt 28/0600z 27.0n 130.0w 25 kt...remnant low
72hr vt 29/0600z 27.5n 132.0w 20 kt...remnant low
96hr vt 30/0600z...dissipated

$$
forecaster avila

sue miller · 08-26-2009, 02:51 PM

wtpz32 knhc 261442
tcpep2
bulletin
tropical storm ignacio advisory number 8
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep122009
800 am pdt wed aug 26 2009

...ignacio beginning to weaken...

At 800 am pdt...1500 utc...the center of tropical storm ignacio was
located near latitude 21.6 north...longitude 124.0 west or about 905
miles...1460 km...west of the southern tip of baja california.

Ignacio is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected during the next 24 hours and ignacio
is forecast to become a tropical depression later today or tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...335 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.

...summary of 800 am pdt information...
Location...21.6n 124.0w
maximum sustained winds...45 mph
present movement...northwest or 305 degrees at 14 mph
minimum central pressure...1002 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
200 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster brown

sue miller · 08-26-2009, 06:01 PM

wtpz42 knhc 262038
tcdep2
tropical storm ignacio discussion number 9
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep122009
200 pm pdt wed aug 26 2009

the low-level center of ignacio is exposed well to the west of a
weakening band of convection. A quikscat pass that arrived shortly
after the issuance of the previous advisory showed some reliable
40-45 kt wind vectors to the northeast of the center. An ascat pass
that was just received showed 35-40 kt winds over the northwest
quadrant but did not sample the eastern portion of the circulation.
A blend of the scatterometer data and current satellite estimates
yields an initial intensity of 40 kt. Ignacio will be moving over
progressively cooler waters and into a more stable airmass during
the next couple days. Steady weakening is forecast and the cyclone
is expected to become a remnant low in about 24 hours...if not
sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 310/10...a little slower than before.
Ignacio is forecast to move northwestward...then turn west in the
low-level easterly flow as it weakens and becomes a shallow system.
The official forecast is close to the previous advisory...but lies
a little to the west of the model consensus.

The tropical-storm-force-wind radii have been expanded over the
eastern semicircle and the northwest quadrant based on the quikscat
and ascat data.

Forecast positions and max winds

initial 26/2100z 22.1n 124.5w 40 kt
12hr vt 27/0600z 23.3n 126.0w 30 kt
24hr vt 27/1800z 25.0n 128.2w 25 kt...remnant low
36hr vt 28/0600z 26.4n 129.9w 25 kt...remnant low
48hr vt 28/1800z 27.0n 131.0w 20 kt...remnant low
72hr vt 29/1800z 27.0n 133.0w 20 kt...remnant low
96hr vt 30/1800z...dissipated

$$
forecaster brown/pasch

sue miller · 08-28-2009, 06:15 AM

The remnant low of ignacio is located about 750 miles west-southwest
of san diego california and is moving northwestward around 10 mph.
The low is expected to remain over cold waters...and regeneration
into a tropical cyclone is not expected.