Tropical Depression Hilda - ESE of Hawaii (was 92E)
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OFTHE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THISSYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND A TROPICALDEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS TRENDCONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGHCHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1070 MILES SOUTHWEST OFTHE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE INORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TOBE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOWCHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
3. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATEDWITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 560 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OFMANZANILLO MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLEDURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTAT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OFTHIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.
000
wtpz31 knhc 222033
tcpep1
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tropical storm hilda advisory number 2
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep112009
200 pm pdt sat aug 22 2009
...new tropical storm forms in the far western portion of the
eastern pacific basin...
At 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm hilda was
located near latitude 13.6 north...longitude 137.7 west or about
1930 miles...3105 km...west-southwest of the southern tip of baja
california and about 1225 miles...1970 km...east-southeast of hilo
hawaii.
Hilda is moving toward the west near 10 mph...17 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph...65
km/hr...with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected
during the next day or two.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.
...summary of 200 pm pdt information...
Location...13.6n 137.7w
maximum sustained winds...40 mph
present movement...west or 275 degrees at 10 mph
minimum central pressure...1006 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
800 pm pdt.
000
wtpz31 knhc 230836
tcpep1
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tropical storm hilda advisory number 4
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep112009
200 am pdt sun aug 23 2009
...hilda a little stronger this morning...
At 200 am pdt...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm hilda was
located near latitude 13.7 north...longitude 139.3 west or about
2025 miles...3260 km...west-southwest of the southern tip of baja
california and about 1125 miles...1810 km...east-southeast of hilo
hawaii.
Hilda is moving toward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and a
continued west to west-northwest motion is expected over the next
couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.
...summary of 200 am pdt information...
Location...13.7n 139.3w
maximum sustained winds...45 mph
present movement...west or 275 degrees at 9 mph
minimum central pressure...1003 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
800 am pdt.
060
abpz20 knhc 231751
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1100 am pdt sun aug 23 2009
for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..
Tropical storm hilda has entered the central pacific basin and is
located about 1070 miles east-southeast of hilo hawaii. The next
advisory on hilda will be issued by the central pacific hurricane
center.
a broad area of low pressure has formed about 450 miles west-
southwest of manzanillo mexico in association with a tropical wave.
This system is gradually becoming better organized and has the
potential to develop into a tropical depression during the day or
two as it moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. There is a high
chance...greater than 50 percent...of this system becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
Public advisories on hilda are issued under wmo header wtpz31 knhc
and under awips header miatcpep1. Forecast/advisories are issued
under wmo header wtpz21 knhc and under awips header miatcmep1.
tropical storm hilda discussion number 8
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi ep112009
1100 pm hst sun aug 23 2009
hilda/s satellite signature has shown some increase in organization
over the past 6 hours...leading to dvorak current intensity
estimates of 3.5 from sab...pgtw and phfo. Given this consensus...
The initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt with this
advisory. A 0338 utc quikscat pass was the basis for increasing the
34 kt wind radii within the northern semicircle.
Initial motion continues at 280/10...as hilda remains in deep
easterly flow south of an east-west ridge aloft along 20n...and a
surface ridge along 35n. These deep layer easterlies are creating
moderate easterly shear over hilda...and are inhibiting outflow in
the northern semicircle. Little change in this setup is expected in
the short term...and the track forecast closely follows the
previous advisory through 48 hours. After 48 hours...hilda/s motion
will be less influenced by a mid-level high to its northeast...and
increasingly by a mid-level high building southward to its
northwest. This will result in some slowing of the forward motion
on days 3 and 4...and a reduction of the vertical shear...with
hilda continuing toward the west. As compared to the previous
advisory...this track forecast represents a slightly slower forward
motion on days 3 through 5.
The forecast track takes hilda over waters sufficiently warm to
support a hurricane...and with hilda able to slowly intensify in the
face of moderate shear over the past 2 days...this trend is forecast
to continue. Some easing of the vertical wind shear on days 3 and 4
is expected to allow hilda to continue to intensify. This intensity
forecast represents an increase from the previous advisory...and is
close to ships and lgem...which both forecast hilda to become a
hurricane in 24 to 36 hours.
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tropical storm hilda advisory number 9
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi ep112009
500 am hst mon aug 24 2009
...hilda continues moving west on a track well south of hawaii...
At 500 am hst...1500 utc...the center of tropical storm hilda was
located near latitude 14.4 north...longitude 145.4 west or about
740 miles east-southeast of hilo hawaii and about 950 miles east-
southeast of honolulu hawaii.
Hilda is moving toward the west near 13 mph. Hilda is expected to
continue moving westward over the next couple of days...although
some slowing of the forward speed is expected on tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Slow
intensification is expected over the next couple of days...and
hilda is expected to become a hurricane by tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the
center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.
...summary of 500 am hst information...
Location...14.4n 145.4w
maximum sustained winds...65 mph
present movement...west or 275 degrees at 13 mph
minimum central pressure...999 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the central pacific hurricane
center at 1100 am hst.
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Tropical Depression Hilda - ESE of Hawaii (was 92E)
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Moving well south of the islands!
Linear Mode
