Thread: T.D. CLAUDETTE Over Alabama

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2009, DB, O, 2009081600, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912009
AL, 91, 2009081600, , BEST, 0, 260N, 830W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Circulation off the coast of Ft Myers quicky organizing, moving north.

Tampa radar NWS radar image loop of Composite Reflectivity from Tampa Bay Area, FL

) This is smaller than original. Click this bar to view the full image. The original is 800x600, size 14KB

RAMSDIS NWS Radar Floater
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ar_floater

Ana, Bill, the wave getting ready to come off Africa, and now this . . . it's an all out assault!

We just got a VERY smal, narrow outer rain band from this

Dvorak: 15/2345 UTC 25.7N 82.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST

Bulletin
tropical depression four advisory number 1
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al042009
500 am edt sun aug 16 2009

...tropical storm warning issued for new depression in the eastern
gulf of mexico...

At 5 am edt...0900 utc...a tropical storm warning has been issued
from the alabama/florida border eastward to the suwannee river
florida. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area please monitor products
issued by your local national weather service forecast office.

At 500 am edt...0900 utc...the center of tropical depression four
was located near latitude 27.7 north...longitude 83.9 west or about
90 miles...140 km...west-southwest of tampa florida and about 155
miles...245 km...south-southeast of apalachicola florida.

The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 16
mph...and this motion is expected to continue today. On the
forecast track...the center of the depression should be very near
the northern gulf coast of florida by late this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected and the depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm prior to reaching the coastline.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches...with isolated maximum
amounts of 10 inches across portions of north florida near the path
of the center.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels can be expected near and to the east of where the center
makes landfall.

...summary of 500 am edt information...
Location...27.7n 83.9w
maximum sustained winds...35 mph
present movement...north-northwest or 330 degrees at 16 mph
minimum central pressure...1011 mb

an intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
center at 800 am edt followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am edt.

$$
forecaster franklin

tropical depression four forecast/advisory number 1
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al042009
0900 utc sun aug 16 2009

at 5 am edt...0900 utc...a tropical storm warning has been issued
from the alabama/florida border eastward to the suwannee river
florida. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24
hours.

Tropical depression center located near 27.7n 83.9w at 16/0900z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 14 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1011 mb
max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 27.7n 83.9w at 16/0900z
at 16/0600z center was located near 27.0n 83.5w

forecast valid 16/1800z 29.2n 85.0w
max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 45ne 45se 0sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 17/0600z 31.0n 86.7w...inland
max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 0ne 60se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 17/1800z 33.0n 87.5w...dissipating inland
max wind 20 kt...gusts 30 kt.

Forecast valid 18/0600z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 27.7n 83.9w

next advisory at 16/1500z

$$
forecaster franklin

tropical depression four discussion number 1
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al042009
500 am edt sun aug 16 2009

data from the wfo tampa radar indicate that the disturbance in the
eastern gulf of mexico has become significantly better organized
overnight. A quikscat pass near 00z suggested that there probably
was a closed surface circulation. Given this...advisories are being
initiated on a new tropical depression. Although there was a ship
report from a carnival cruise line vessel of 40 kt...this report is
not considered to be representative of the surface winds. Doppler
velocities from the tampa radar also do not support tropical storm
strength at this time. However...the excellent radar presentation
and deep convection suggests that storm status is likely to be
attained soon. Vertical shear is very low...and the intensity
guidance from the hwrf and gfdl suggest a middle-range tropical
storm by landfall. It should be noted that some additional
strengthening prior to landfall but after the 12 hour 45 kt
forecast intensity shown below is likely.

The initial motion is 330/13. The cyclone is moving around the
periphery of the subtropical ridge and is expected to maintain this
approximate track until landfall. The official forecast is close to
a consensus of a fairly tightly clustered guidance suite.

This is a very small tropical cyclone...and its effects are likely
to remain rather close to the path of the center.


Forecast positions and max winds

initial 16/0900z 27.7n 83.9w 30 kt
12hr vt 16/1800z 29.2n 85.0w 45 kt
24hr vt 17/0600z 31.0n 86.7w 40 kt...inland
36hr vt 17/1800z 33.0n 87.5w 20 kt...dissipating inland
48hr vt 18/0600z...dissipated

$$
forecaster franklin