000
wtnt33 knhc 151434
tcpat3
bulletin
tropical depression three advisory number 1
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al032009
1100 am ast sat aug 15 2009
...tropical depression three forms in the eastern atlantic...
At 1100 am ast...1500 utc...the center of tropical depression three
was located near latitude 11.5 north...longitude 34.0 west or about
740 miles...1190 km...west-southwest of the cape verde islands.
The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph...27 km/hr...
And this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple
of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...
And the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today or on sunday.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.
...summary of 1100 am ast information...
Location...11.5n 34.0w
maximum sustained winds...35 mph
present movement...west or 265 degrees at 17 mph
minimum central pressure...1006 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
500 pm ast.
Riight now we have Ana... a ytropical Storm that may not (quite) make it to hurricane strength. She is on the way, but right now, is hitting some dry air, and some possibility she could weaken. We can hope! Ifnot, she could arrive US shores somewhere late next week. She is very small, size-wise.
then, there is TD3 - expected to osoon strengthen into TS Bill soon. He is much larger. SOME of the models have him hitting the Antillies as a Cat 2 about 4 days aftr Ana. There is a high that could turn him out to sea, though... JUST before that. If so, he could barely brush the antillies, and recurve away from us. Again, we can hope. He's too far away right now to know what will actually happen, but that's one possibility.
Another wave is about to come off the coast of Africa. Speculation at this point, but it looks like it could possibly become something pretty significant. . . eventually.
Really does, Sheila! Now, I can keep up with each of them.
We're going to the beach (SC) several days this upcoming week to visit friends who live there. Looks like the coast will be clear for us. Also, those friends normally come to stay with us in Columbia when a hurricane is on the way.
Sometimes our local weather people get way too excited too soon!
TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE IS
LARGE AND HAS NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH
THE OUTFLOW PRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
HAVE INCREASED AND SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. BILL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT SHEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
UPWARD INTENSITY TREND INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE.
BILL IS IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND IS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265
DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
STEERING CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED AND BILL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN A
LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A DAY OR SO...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...AND
THE BULK OF THE MODELS HAS BILL AS A HURRICANE JUST NORTH AND VERY
NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers
-
Centrum Deck
-
Ask a Cruise Question
-
Hurricane Watch
-
Hurricane Bill -Cat 1- east of Nova Scotia
#
#
Linear Mode
