Thread: Hurricane Bill -Cat 1- east of Nova Scotia

Hurricane bill intermediate information statement issued by the
canadian hurricane centre of environment canada at 12.00 noon
adt sunday 23 august 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 pm adt

at 12 noon adt... Hurricane bill was located near latitude
43.3 n and longitude 64.0 w... About 90 nautical miles or 150 km
south southwest of halifax nova scotia.

Bill is moving towards the northeast at 29 knots... 54 km/h.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 75 knots... 140 km/h and
central pressure at 965 mb.

The satellite presentation of bill is still very tropical with a
large area of convection offshore of nova scotia displaced to the
east of the low level centre which is about 100 kilometres south
of lunenburg county. The outer rainbands have moved across nova
scotia and into prince edward island and southern and central
new brunswick.

The centre of hurricane bill passed by just to south of the
georges bank buoy between 08 utc and 09 utc. The lowest atmospheric
pressure reported by the buoy was 965 mbs with a peak 5-metre
wind at 52 knots. The maximum significant wave height reported
by the buoy was 10.7 metres but the wave recording equipment
stopped reporting for two hours at the height of the hurricane
force winds.

Hurricane bill also passed south of the browns bank buoy but
reports were lost from this buoy during the height of the
hurricane as well. It is estimated significant wave heights
were near 10 metres and winds were likely storm force.

By 12 utc the lahave bank buoy was reporting winds near
hurricane force with a peak wind at 73 knots and significant
wave heights were 13.4 metres with a maximum wave height at
26.4 metres. The centre of bill is expected very near this
buoy shortly.

Much of mainland nova scotia is being battered by rainbands
reaching out from hurricane bill. These rainbands are even
moving into southern new brunswick reaching north of fredericton
and moncton. Rainfall rates of 15 to 20 millimetres per hour
have been reported in these rainbands making driving conditions
hazardous with reduced visibilities and standing water on roadways.
This heavy rainfall has the potential to cause street and road
flooding.. Undermine some road surfaces.. Washouts and flooded
basements.

Total rainfall amounts in southern nova scotia are up to 60
millimetres up to the noon hour. Southern new brunswick has
reported 20 to 40 millimetres. These rainbands are now moving
into prince edward island eastern nova scotia and cape breton.
The rainbands will begin affecting newfoundland later today.

Sustained tropical storm force winds have reached the coast
of nova scotia as well. Baccaro point has reported sustained
winds of 36 knots (67 km/h) and a maximum wind at 46 knots
(85 km/h). Yarmouth airport had a peak gust at 38 knots (70 km/h).
Lunenburg has reported maximum winds at 43 knots (80 km/h).
Winds in the halifax regional municipality have reached 39 knots
(72 km/h). There are media reports of trees down in the hrm area.
There are numerous reported power outages across the entire
south shore of nova scotia. The winds will continue to increase
this afternoon in the maritimes as bill nears the coastline.
The wind will reach newfoundland tonight.

Large waves are beginning to reach the coastline of nova scotia
at noon. The buoy outside halifax harbour has reported a maximum
wave height of 6.9 metres this morning and this is forecast to
reach 5 to 10 metres along the entire coastline this afternoon.
There are reports that the roadway in eastern passage is under
water. Rcmp reports large swells are reaching the peggys cove area.
Roadways near the coast are being closed in several areas.
A combination of these large waves with the forecast storm
surge of 0.5 to 1.0 metres may lead to shoreline erosion and
damage to wharves and coastal structures as well as generating
dangerous rip currents at local beaches. These large waves and
storm surge will be moving into newfoundland tonight. The envelope
of high seas carried with hurricane bill will strike coastal
regions of newfoundland facing the brunt of bill. A storm surge
"watch" will soon be in effect for the southeasternmost portions
of newfoundland as the centre of bill is expected to track across
land there.

Attention: Spectators are strongly advised to keep a safe distance
from the shoreline due to the rapid approach of large waves.

Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
and warnings issued for their region by environment canada.

End/nickerson/fogarty/mercer

wtnt33 knhc 231802
tcpat3
bulletin
hurricane bill intermediate advisory number 33a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al032009
200 pm ast sun aug 23 2009

...bill moving near nova scotia...

At 2 pm ast...1800 utc...environment canada has discontinued the
tropical storm warning in nova scotia from charlesville in
shelburne county to hubbards in halifax county...and discontinued
the tropical storm watch from west of malagash in cumberland county
to tidnish in cumberland county...and discontinued the tropical
storm watch from fort lawrence in cumberland county to
charlesville.

A tropical storm warning is now in effect in eastern nova scotia
from east of hubbards to lismore...and a hurricane watch is in
effect from ecum secum in halifax county to point aconiin in cape
breton county.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect along the southeastern
coast of newfoundland from stone's cove to bonavista. A tropical
storm watch remains in effect for the west and south coast of
newfoundland from parsons pond around to stone's cove...and along
the east coast of newfoundland from bonavista to harbour deep.

For storm information specific to your area outside of the united
states...please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service. For storm information specific to your
area in the united states...including possible inland watches and
warnings...please monitor products issued by your local national
weather service forecast office.

At 200 pm ast...1800 utc...the center of hurricane bill was located
near latitude 44.4 north...longitude 62.5 west or about 60 miles...
95 km...east-southeast of halifax nova scotia.

Bill is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph...56 km/hr...and a
further increase in forward speed is expected today and tonight.
On the forecast track...the center of bill will pass near or just
off the eastern coast of nova scotia today...and near or over
southeastern newfoundland tonight or early monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Bill is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson
scale. Some weakening is forecast and bill is likely to lose
tropical characteristics during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290
miles...465 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb...28.64 inches.

Total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 7 inches are expected near the track of bill across nova
scotia...prince edward island and newfoundland.

Large and dangerous swells generated by hurricane bill will be
impacting the atlantic maritimes of canada today. Swells along the
u.s. East coast should gradually diminish today and tonight.

...summary of 200 pm ast information...
Location...44.4n 62.5w
maximum sustained winds...80 mph
present movement...northeast or 45 degrees at 35 mph
minimum central pressure...970 mb


the next advisory will be issued by the national
hurricane center at 500 pm ast.

$$
forecaster pasch

wtnt33 knhc 232036
tcpat3
bulletin
hurricane bill advisory number 34
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al032009
500 pm ast sun aug 23 2009

...bill near eastern nova scotia...headed for newfoundland...

A tropical storm warning remains in effect in eastern nova scotia
from east of hubbards to lismore...and a hurricane watch is in
effect from ecum secum in halifax county to point aconi in cape
breton county.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for prince edward island
from victoria in queen county northward to lower darnley in prince
county.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect along the southeastern
coast of newfoundland from stones cove to bonavista. A tropical
storm watch remains in effect for the west and south coast of
newfoundland from parsons pond around to stones cove...and along
the east coast of newfoundland from bonavista to harbour deep.

For storm information specific to your area outside of the united
states...please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

At 500 pm ast...2100 utc...the center of hurricane bill was located
near latitude 45.1 north...longitude 60.8 west or about 385 miles...
620 km...west-southwest of cape race newfoundland.

Bill is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph...56 km/hr...and a
further increase in forward speed is expected tonight and monday.
On the forecast track the center of bill pass near or over
southeastern newfoundland tonight or early monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph...120
km/hr...with higher gusts. Bill is a category one hurricane on the
saffir-simpson scale. Weakening is forecast during the next 24
hours and bill is expected to become extratropical on monday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290
miles...465 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb...28.64 inches.

Total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches are expected near the track of bill across
newfoundland. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible
over the eastern end of nova scotia and prince edward island.

Large and dangerous swells generated by hurricane bill will be
impacting the atlantic maritimes of canada tonight.

...summary of 500 pm ast information...
Location...45.1n 60.8w
maximum sustained winds...75 mph
present movement...northeast or 50 degrees at 35 mph
minimum central pressure...970 mb

an intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
center at 800 pm ast followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
pm ast.

$$
forecaster kimberlain/pasch


416
wtnt43 knhc 232036
tcdat3
hurricane bill discussion number 34
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al032009
500 pm ast sun aug 23 2009

bill is gradually weakening while losing some of its tropical
appearance. The satellite presentation has been gradually
deteriorating...with the cloud pattern becoming more asymmetric and
the deepest convection confined to the northeast semicircle.
Dvorak t-numbers of 3.5 and 4.0 from tafb and sab...respectively
...and the assumption of a continued slow weakening as bill
traverses cooler waters...yield an initial intensity estimate of 65
kt for this advisory. The forecast calls for steady weakening...
And extratropical transition is expected to be complete within 24
hours...in agreement with the global model guidance. By 96 hours
bill is predicted to have merged with a larger cyclonic circulation
near the british isles.

Bill has continued to accelerate...and the initial motion estimate
is now 050/030. Some further acceleration is likely during the next
24-36 hours as the cyclone becomes fully embedded within strong
west-southwesterly flow ahead of a shortwave trough lifting out of
the eastern united states. Beyond 36 hours...some slowing of the
forward speed is expected as the extratropical remnant of bill
interacts with the large cyclonic circulation over the northeast
atlantic. The official forecast represents an update of the
previous advisory...with no significant changes.

Large and dangerous swells associated with bill will continue
impacting the canadian maritimes during the next 12 to 24 hours...
While swells along the east coast of the united states will continue
to subside tonight.

Forecast positions and max winds

initial 23/2100z 45.1n 60.8w 65 kt
12hr vt 24/0600z 47.7n 54.5w 60 kt
24hr vt 24/1800z 50.0n 43.8w 50 kt...extratropical
36hr vt 25/0600z 51.5n 32.0w 40 kt...extratropical
48hr vt 25/1800z 52.5n 21.0w 35 kt...extratropical
72hr vt 26/1800z 57.0n 5.0w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr vt 27/1800z...dissipated

$$
forecaster kimberlain/pasch

Last Advisory

000
WTNT43 KNHC 240843
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST MON AUG 24 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS RADAR AND SURFACE DATA FROM
NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA INDICATE THAT BILL HAS QUICKLY LOST TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
INCREASING ASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A BAND OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A POLAR JET THAT IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS 60 KT...WHICH IS BASED PRIMARILY ON BUOY...SHIP...AND
LAND OBSERVATIONS THAT RECORDED 50-56 KT WINDS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 075/37. BILL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT BILL WILL SLOW
DOWN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SOUTHWEST OF
ICELAND IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF BILL WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON BILL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 48.6N 50.2W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 24/1800Z 50.0N 41.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 25/0600Z 51.5N 29.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/1800Z 52.5N 19.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 26/0600Z 55.0N 11.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 27/0600Z 62.5N 1.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$




FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS


POOF

Whew! Thank goodness this one is gone!