Thread: Tropical Depression 09E- SW of Baja

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 9 2009

CORRECTED TO ADD PROBABILITY IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURELOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJACALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER THE PASTSEVERAL HOURS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND THERE IS AHIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ISLOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCURAS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOWCHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN

This has now been declared
a Tropical Depression

000
wtpz34 knhc 092033
tcpep4
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tropical depression nine-e advisory number 1
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep092009
200 pm pdt sun aug 09 2009

...small tropical depression forms well away from land...

At 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...the center of tropical depression nine-e
was located near latitude 14.0 north...longitude 120.3 west or about
915 miles...1475 km...southwest of the southern tip of baja
california.

The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A
turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed
is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours...and the depression could become a tropical storm later
today or tonight.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

...summary of 200 pm pdt information...
Location...14.0n 120.3w
maximum sustained winds...35 mph
present movement...west or 270 degrees at 8 mph
minimum central pressure...1007 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
800 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster berg

000
wtpz34 knhc 100837
tcpep4
bulletin
tropical depression nine-e advisory number 3
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep092009
200 am pdt mon aug 10 2009

...depression has not strengthened...

At 200 am pdt...0900 utc...the center of tropical depression nine-e
was located near latitude 14.9 north...longitude 122.1 west or about
970 miles...1560 km...west-southwest of the southern tip of baja
california.

The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph...13 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours
with a slight increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days...and the depression could become a tropical storm later
today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

...summary of 200 am pdt information...
Location...14.9n 122.1w
maximum sustained winds...35 mph
present movement...west or 280 degrees at 8 mph
minimum central pressure...1007 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
800 am pdt.

$$
forecaster kimberlain/pasch

That's good newa! Let's hope it continues without hitting the warmer waters like Felicia

000
wtpz34 knhc 102037
tcpep4
bulletin
tropical depression nine-e advisory number 5
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep092009
200 pm pdt mon aug 10 2009

...wind shear impacting depression...no change in strength...

At 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...the center of tropical depression nine-e
was located near latitude 15.1 north...longitude 124.2 west or about
1075 miles...1735 km...west-southwest of the southern tip of baja
california.

The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr...
And this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple
of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

...summary of 200 pm pdt information...
Location...15.1n 124.2w
maximum sustained winds...35 mph
present movement...west or 275 degrees at 12 mph
minimum central pressure...1007 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
800 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster brennan

This seems like the hot spot this year.

Good news for the Gulf.

THey tell us there's an El Nino, which explains exactly that, Reggie.