Tropical DepressionFelicia - E of Honolulu - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

canarymoon · 08-03-2009, 08:00 PM

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PA ST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

canarymoon · 08-03-2009, 08:00 PM

canarymoon · 08-03-2009, 08:01 PM

canarymoon · 08-03-2009, 08:02 PM

If this one develops, just look where the models are pointing!

sue miller · 08-03-2009, 08:04 PM

canarymoon · 08-03-2009, 08:36 PM

But remember . . . it's really early. Not even a LLC yet, so nothing definitive to inisiate the models on... coule change a lot of / when it becomes a real low.

sue miller · 08-03-2009, 08:40 PM

Yup long way to go

canarymoon · 08-03-2009, 08:48 PM

It has turned RED already

sue miller · 08-03-2009, 08:50 PM

NO WAY

canarymoon · 08-03-2009, 08:51 PM

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E...LOCATED ABOUT 705 MILESSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES MAY BE INITIATED LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/BRENNAN
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