Thread: Tropical DepressionFelicia - E of Honolulu

Might make for some good surfing!

From Accuweather this morning:

"Felicia could become a Category 3 major hurricane at any point today . . . Felicia's proximity to Hawaii still puts it several days out from the Hawaiian Islands. At that point it will be moving over cooler waters, which will act to put a cap on the strengthening and begin to weaken the system. Upper-level winds at that point will not be as favorable either."

000wtpz33 knhc 051456 ccatcpep3
bulletin hurricane felicia advisory number 8
...corrected
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep082009
issued by the hydrometeorological prediction center camp springs md
800 am pdt wed aug 05 2009

...felicia continues to strengthen...reaches major hurricane status...

At 800 am pdt...1500 utc...the center of hurricane felicia waslocated near latitude 14.1 north...longitude 128.7 west or about1370 miles...2210 km...west-southwest of the southern tip of baja california.

Felicia is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.

Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph...185 km/hr...with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles...195 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb...28.20 inches....

Summary of 800 am pdt information...
Location...14.1n 128.7w
maximum sustained winds...115 mph
present movement...northwest or 310 degrees at 12 mph
minimum central pressure...955 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 200 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster pereira

The surfers will be happy in Hawaii.

Still climbing.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 AUG 2009 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 14:15:00 N Lon : 129:16:17 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 945.8mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.2 6.6 6.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +3.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

.Get a load of that eye structure. Holy cow!

Central Minimum Pressure is really falling . . . .
10 mb in 40 miutes!
That qualifies for RI.

Down another 5 mb!

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 940.6mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.4 6.4 6.4

485
wtpz43 knhc 052038
tcdep3
hurricane felicia discussion number 9
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep082009
issued by the hydrometeorological prediction center camp springs md
200 pm pdt wed aug 05 2009

satellite intensity estimates at 1800 utc from tafb and
sab remained at t6.0 and t5.0... Respectively... While
deep convection continues to fire in the eastern and southeastern
semicircles around a well-defined eye. Therefore... Raised the
initial intensity a little further to 110 kt while decreasing the
central pressure to 940 mb.

Again... Little change is anticipated to the initial heading over
the next couple of days while a deep mid-level trough to the north
of felicia remains in place. A more westerly track is expected by
days 3 and beyond as this trough moves inland across the contiguous
united states and is replaced by a mid-level high currently
centered north of the hawaiian islands. Under the influence of
colder sea surface temperatures and increasing shear... Felicia
will likely be weakening by that point and will become more
strongly influenced by the lower-level trade winds. Following a
reasonably tight model consensus... No significant changes were
made to the track forecast.

The environment around felicia remains conducive for the storm to
maintain its current intensity or strengthen a bit more over the
next day as the aforementioned mid-level cut-off low near
california is inducing diffluence aloft while vertical shear is
expected to remain light. Oceanic heat content should remain
sufficient for at least the next 36 hours until the northwesterly
track of the storm takes the center over cooler waters. This
decrease in oceanic heat content and a forecast increase in
vertical shear should result in a gradual weakening days 3 through
5.

Forecast positions and max winds

initial 05/2100z 14.5n 129.7w 110 kt
12hr vt 06/0600z 15.2n 130.9w 115 kt
24hr vt 06/1800z 16.7n 132.4w 110 kt
36hr vt 07/0600z 17.8n 134.0w 105 kt
48hr vt 07/1800z 19.0n 136.1w 95 kt
72hr vt 08/1800z 20.2n 140.9w 70 kt
96hr vt 09/1800z 20.5n 146.0w 55 kt
120hr vt 10/1800z 20.2n 152.5w 40 kt

$$
forecaster pereira

Zczc miatcpep3 al
lttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
bulletin
hurricane felicia advisory number 9
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep
082009
issued by the hydrometeorological prediction center camp springs md
200 pm pdt wed aug 05 2009

...felicia continues to intensify...

at 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...the center of hurricane felicia waslocated near latitude 14.5 north...longitude 129.7 west or about 1420 miles...2280 km...west-southwest of the southern tip of bajacalifornia.

felicia is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.

satellite imagery indicates that winds have increased to near 125mph...205 km/hr...with higher gusts. Little change in strength isforecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...fromthe center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles...195 km.

estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb...27.76 inches

....summary of 200 pm pdt information...
location...14.5n 129.7w
maximum sustained winds...125 mph
present movement...northwest or 310 degrees at 12 mph
minimum central pressure...940 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 800 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster pereira
nnnn