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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOWPRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJACONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSIONAPPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILLBE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARDTO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGHCHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OFTHE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OFORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXTDAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEMBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.
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tropical depression seven-e advisory number 1
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
ep072009200 pm pdt mon aug 03 2009
...seventh tropical depression of the eastern pacific hurricaneseason forms....
At 200 pm pdt the center of tropical depression seven-ewas located near latitude 13.0 north...longitude 112.6 west or about 705 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of baja california.
the depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over thenext 48 hours.
maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours.
estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb
summary of 200 pm pdt information...
location...13.0n 112.6w
maximum sustained winds...35 mph
present movement...west or 280 degrees at 14 mph
minimum central pressure...1006 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center a t800 pm pdt.
zczc miatcpep2 all ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm bulletin tropical storm enrique advisory number 2 nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep072009800 pm pdt mon aug 03 2009
...fifth named storm of the 2009 eastern north pacific season forms...
at 800 pm pdt...0300 utc...the center of tropical storm enrique waslocated near latitude 13.3 north...longitude 113.9 west or about 715 miles...1150 km...south-southwest of the southern tip of bajacalifornia.
Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and a general west-northwestward motion is expected for the next48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with highergusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 kmfrom the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.
...summary of 800 pm pdt information... location...13.3n 113.9w maximum sustained winds...40 mph present movement...west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 mph minimum central pressure...1004 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 200 am pdt.
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tropical storm enrique advisory number 3
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
ep072009200 am pdt tue aug 04 2009
...enrique turns west-northwestward with no change in intensity...
at 200 am pdt...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm enrique waslocated near latitude 14.0 north...longitude 115.7 west or about 725 miles...1165 km...south-southwest of the southern tip of baja california.
enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours.
maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with highergusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 kmfrom the center.
estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches....
summary of 200 am pdt information...
location...14.0n 115.7w
maximum sustained winds...40 mph
present movement...west-northwest or 290 degrees at 17 mph
minimum central pressure...1004 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 800 am pdt.
Tropical storm enrique discussion number 3
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep072009
200 am pdt tue aug 04 2009
enrique has a ragged convective structure...and upper level outflow
is being restricted to the north of the system. Dvorak estimates
from tafb and sab are unchanged from six hours ago so the storm is
being held at an initial intensity of 35 kt.
Recent geostationary and microwave satellite fixes suggest that
enrique has accelerated to the west-northwest...possibly due to
some interaction with the circulation of tropical depression
eight-e. The global models are struggling to resolve the
interaction between the two systems...and most are favoring
stronger development of t.d. Eight-e instead of enrique. There is
large model spread after 24-36 hours especially in the forward
speed...and the official forecast has fairly high uncertainty. The
new forecast has been shifted north of the previous track towards
the model consensus...but it is possible that enrique may not
survive after a few days if t.d. Eight-e becomes the dominant
system.
The intensity guidance shows either no or only modest strengthening
over the next 48 hours. Northerly shear is not expected to
decrease...and the official intensity forecast is notched downward
from the previous forecast. This forecast still lies at the upper
limit of the guidance...very similar to the ships model. It is
likely that this change might not be enough since the hwrf shows
almost no intensification and the gfdl dissipates enrique in about
42 hours.
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