Tropical Storm Lana - SE of Hawaii - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

canarymoon · 07-30-2009, 07:45 AM

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

NNNN

canarymoon · 07-30-2009, 07:45 AM

Char · 07-30-2009, 09:34 AM

Maybe this one will dissipate before it gets anywhere near land. It's a long way off from Hawaii right now.

canarymoon · 07-30-2009, 07:33 PM

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICALDEPRESSION SIX-E...CENTERED ABOUT 1155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILOHAWAII. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFICHURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMOHEADER WTPZ31 KNHC AND AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1. FUTURE PUBLICADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA31 PHFO AND AWIPSHEADER TCPCP1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADERWTPZ21 KNHC AND AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1. FUTURE FORECAST/ADVISORIESWILL BE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO AND AWIPS HEADERTCMCP1.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

canarymoon · 07-30-2009, 07:36 PM

Wtpa41 phfo 302031
tcdcp1
tropical storm lana discussion number 2
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi ep062009
issued by nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1100 am hst thu jul 30 2009

visible satellite imagery indicates that the cloud pattern
associated with the depression has continued to improve in
organization with a prominent convective band coiling around the
low-level center. T-numbers from tafb and sab...as well as the adt
from uw-cimss...have all increased to 2.5 on the dvorak scale. The
system is therefore being upgraded to tropical storm lana.

Further strengthening is anticipated due to warm ocean waters and
low shear. In fact...the ships ri index is indicating a 50%
chance of rapid intensification within the next 24 hours. The
official forecast does not show such quick strengthening but is at
the upper end of the intensity guidance and brings lana close to
hurricane strength in 36 hours. Southwesterly to west-
southwesterly shear is expected to increase dramatically by 72
hours and should lead to weakening at that time. Thereafter...the
shear is not forecast to abate...and lana is expected to be a
tropical depression...or possibly a remnant low...by day 5.

The initial motion is 280/16. Lana is being steered quickly
westward by a mid-level ridge located to its north...and this ridge
is expected to remain in place and keep lana on a general westward
course south of the hawaiian islands. The dynamical models...with
the exception of the ukmet...are tightly-clustered and have shifted
a little to the south. The official forecast is therefore nudged
southward towards the model consensus.

Even though the cyclone formed in the eastern pacific basin...it has
become a tropical storm in the area of responsibility of the
central pacific hurricane center and is therefore given the
corresponding name from the central pacific name list.

Forecast positions and max winds

initial 30/2100z 12.3n 141.4w 35 kt
12hr vt 31/0600z 12.5n 143.7w 45 kt
24hr vt 31/1800z 12.9n 146.7w 55 kt
36hr vt 01/0600z 13.2n 149.7w 60 kt
48hr vt 01/1800z 13.4n 152.5w 60 kt
72hr vt 02/1800z 14.0n 158.0w 50 kt
96hr vt 03/1800z 14.5n 163.5w 35 kt
120hr vt 04/1800z 15.0n 168.5w 25 kt

$$
forecaster berg

canarymoon · 07-30-2009, 07:43 PM

canarymoon · 07-30-2009, 07:43 PM

Char · 07-30-2009, 08:37 PM

That changed in a hurry!

But then, Mother Nature isn't always predictable.

canarymoon · 07-31-2009, 06:50 AM

No, she isn't

canarymoon · 07-31-2009, 06:50 AM

Zczc hfotcpcp1 all
ttaa00 phfo ddhhmmbulletin
tropical storm lana advisory number 4
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi
ep062009issued by nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1100 pm hst thu jul 30 2009...

lana continuing west-northwestward...little change in strengthduring the past several hours...

at 1100 pm hst...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm lana waslocated near latitude 13.3 north...longitude 144.6 west or about 825 miles east-southeast of hilo hawaii.

lana is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph. a generally westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speedis expected during the next couple of days.

maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...with highergusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours andlana could become a hurricane on friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center.

estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb.

summary of 1100 pm hst information...
location...13.3n 144.6w
maximum sustained winds...60 mph
present movement...west-northwest or 285 degrees at 20 mph
minimum central pressure...997 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the central pacific hurricane center at 500 am hst.

$$
forecaster beven
nnnn