tropical storm lana advisory number 5
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi ep062009
issued by nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
500 am hst fri jul 31 2009
...lana weakens a little as it continues toward the
west-northwest...
At 500 am hst...1500 utc...the center of tropical storm lana was
located near latitude 13.6 north...longitude 146.3 west or about 720
miles...1155 km...southeast of hilo hawaii.
Lana is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr. A
generally westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next couple of days. On this track...the area
of strongest winds associated with lana should be passing well to
the south of the hawaiian islands in about 36 to 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph...85
km/hr...with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is
forecast during the next day or two.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
...summary of 500 am hst information...
Location...13.6n 146.3w
maximum sustained winds...50 mph
present movement...west-northwest or 285 degrees at 18 mph
minimum central pressure...1000 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the central pacific hurricane
center at 1100 am hst.
$$
forecaster avila
tropical storm lana discussion number 5
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi ep062009
issued by nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
500 am hst fri jul 31 2009
the intensification trend observed yesterday has reversed and
the cloud pattern has deteriorated instead. It appears that some
southerly shear induced by a large upper-level trough just west of
the hawaiian islands has begun to affect the cyclone. Lana consists
of two convective areas surrounding the center and now has less
defined outflow. Dvorak t-numbers have decreased and the initial
intensity has been lowered to 45 knots. Lana still has the
opportunity to strengthen some before the shear increases further
in about 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter...a gradual weakening is
indicated. Most of current intensity guidance does not show any
significant strengthening either...and weakens the cyclone later in
the forecast period.
Lana is fully embedded within the tropical trade winds and is moving
toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 17 knots. The current
weakness in the subtropical ridge over the hawaiian islands is
forecast to be replaced by a stronger ridge. This pattern evolution
should keep lana on a west-northwest track with a small decrease in
forward speed through five days. This will keep the cyclone
well south of the hawaiian islands. The official forecast is in the
middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.
...Tropical Storm Lana continuing on a westward track southeast of the Hawaiian islands...
At 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Lana was located near latitude 14.4 north...longitude 150.0 west or about 495 miles southeast of Hilo...Hawaii and about 705 miles southeast of Honolulu...Hawaii.
Lana is moving toward the west near 13 mph...and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Lana is expected to maintain its current intensity through Saturday morning...then gradually weaken Saturday night and Sunday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.
...Summary of 1100 PM HST information...
location...14.4n 150.0w
maximum sustained winds...50 mph
present movement...west or 280 degrees at 13 mph
minimum central pressure...1004 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at 500 am HST.
area forecast discussion
national weather service honolulu hi
830 pm hst fri jul 31 2009
synopsis
high pressure located far northeast of the aloha state will maintain
trade winds through early next week. The trade wind speeds may
increase slightly during the next couple of days as tropical cyclone
lana passes far south of the islands. Clouds and showers carried by
the trades will continue mainly across windward and mauka sections
of the island chain.
Discussion
a 1027 mb surface high located near 37n 146w...or about 1300 miles
northeast of honolulu...remains nearly stationary this evening. The
pressure gradient south of this feature is maintaining trade winds
across the state. In addition to the high at the surface...an upper
tropospheric low located just north of the islands continues to move
slowly northward. The close proximity of this feature aloft to the
islands will keep the atmosphere over the state slightly unstable...
At least through tonight. Therefore...expect passing showers to
affect the islands at times through saturday...especially over
windward and mauka areas.
Surface high pressure will prevail far northeast of the aloha state
from this weekend through early next week. Tropical storm lana...
Now located far southeast of the big island...is still expected to
pass far south of the area according to the central pacific
hurricane center /cphc/ later the weekend. The intensity forecast
for lana indicates it may weaken to a depression by saturday night
or sunday. Regardless...the passage of this lower pressure south of
the state will likely tighten the pressure gradient...which would
boost the trade wind speeds. See the latest bulletins issued by cphc
for the more detailed information on tropical storm lana.
Weak upper level ridging is also expected to develop over the
islands during the weekend...which will likely make the air mass
across the state more stable. Therefore...the showers are expected
to remain light. As noted in the previous discussion...trade wind
weather will continue to reign over the islands from this weekend
into early next week...with passing clouds and showers affecting
windward and mauka areas at times.
the small craft advisory /sca/ continues for the typically windy
areas of the coastal waters such as the pailolo and alenuihaha
channels...maalaea bay and the waters south of the big island early
this evening. As the pressure gradient across the islands increases
due to the passage of tropical cyclone lana south of the islands...
Additional marine zones may need to be included in the sca from
saturday night through monday.
The significant wave height at the lanai wave buoy has increased to
3.5 feet with a dominant wave period of 17 seconds. The kilo nalu
wave sensor located along the south shore of oahu has a significant
wave height of about 3 feet with a wave period of 17 seconds.
Therefore...surf heights along south facing shores of all hawaiian
islands remain near the high surf advisory threshold of 8 feet. This
swell is expected to persist through this weekend...so the high surf
advisory remains in effect through sunday afternoon.
Hfo watches/warnings/advisories
small craft advisory until 600 am hst monday for the pailolo and
alenuihaha channels... Maalaea bay and the waters south of the big
island.
High surf advisory until 600 pm hst sunday for south facing shores
of all hawaiian islands.
Offshore waters forecast for hawaii
national weather service honolulu hi1200 pm hst sat aug 1 2009
hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240 nautical miles including the portion of the northwestern hawaiian islands
marine national monument east of french frigate shoalsseas given as significant wave height...which is the average heightof the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.phz180-020400-hawaiian offshore waters1200 pm hst sat aug 1 2009...
tropical storm warning s of 17n....this afternoon...tropical storm force winds within 50 nm of centerof lana. Highest winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt.
Seas 12 ft or greaterwithin area of tropical storm force winds.
Highest seas 21 ft.
elsewhere...e winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 12 ft..
tonight and sunday...tropical storm force winds within 50 nm ofcenter of lana. Highest winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Seas 12 ft orgreater within area of tropical storm force winds. Highest seas 21ft.
Elsewhere...e winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 12 ft
..sunday night...e winds 15 to 25 kt...except s of 16n to 30 kt early. Seas 6 to 12 ft...except s of 16n to 16 ft early..
monday through wednesday...e winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
bulletin
tropical storm lana advisory number 10
nws central pacific hurricane center honolulu hi ep062009
1100 am hst sat aug 01 2009
...tropical storm lana continues moving west on a track that will
remain south of the hawaiian islands...
At 1100 am hst...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm lana was
located near latitude 14.5 north...longitude 153.4 west or about
375 miles south-southeast of hilo hawaii and about 555 miles
south-southeast of honolulu hawaii.
Lana is moving toward the west near 18 mph. Lana is expected to
continue to move west and the forward speed will decrease slightly
over the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...with higher gusts. Lana
is expected to weaken over the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 75 miles from the
center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches
...summary of 1100 am hst information...location...14.5n 153.4w
maximum sustained winds...50 mph present movement...west or 275
degrees at 18 mph minimum central pressure...1008 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the central pacific hurricane
center at 500 pm hst.
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