Thread: TROPICAL Depression DOLORES

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CARLOS...LOCATED ABOUT 1085 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OFBAJA CALIFORNIA.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OFACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENTOF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THEWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN

Another one on the heels of Carlos!

And it's already Orange, too!

Zczc miatwoep all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1100 am pdt sun jul 12 2009

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..

The national hurricane center is issuing advisories on hurricane
carlos...located about 1135 miles southwest of the southern tip of
baja california.

1. A broad area of low pressure a few hundred miles south-southwest of
acapulco mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Conditions appear favorable for gradual development
of this system during the next couple of days as it moves to the
west or west-northwest. There is a medium chance...30 to 50
percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster franklin/landsea
nnnn

Still Orange ...

Red

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICALSTORM CARLOS...LOCATED ABOUT 1370 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNTIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATIONAROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILESSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLEFOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSIONCOULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST ORWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

the broad low pressure area located several hundred miles
south-southwest of manzanillo mexico has changed little in
organization this afternoon. Conditions appear favorable
for development of this system...and a tropical depression
could form during the next day or two as the low moves west or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. There is a high chance...
Greater than 50 percent...of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours.

elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

The Eastern Pacific is really active

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Issued
WTPN21 PGTW 140000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 108.2W TO 14.0N 114.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 109.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0N 109.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 495 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD CONVECTION STARTING TO
WRAP INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
131621Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED 25 TO 30-KNOT UNFLAGGED GRADIENT WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND 15 TO 20-KNOT WINDS AT THE
SYSTEM CETNER. ADDITIONALLY, A 132018Z 89 GHZ AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING ON THE SYSTEM CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS STARTING TO DEVELOP A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150000Z.//
NNNN