Thread: TROPICAL Depression DOLORES

8 AM PDT advisory=35kts

570
WTPZ45 KNHC 161434
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER THE CENTER OF DOLORES AS THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1200 UTC WERE 2.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT IT IS ASSUMED
TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH STILL APPEARED TO BE
WELL-DEFINED IN A TRMM PASS AROUND 0800 UTC. THE INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/16. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
TURNING MORE TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
CYCLONE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. THIS TRACK IS BETWEEN THE
HWRF AND GFDL AND SOUTH OF MOST OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...
WHICH TAKE A DEEPER CYCLONE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG 140W.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. DOLORES COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN SHOWN
HERE...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT
REFORM NEAR THE CENTER LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 18.9N 120.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 20.1N 122.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 21.4N 125.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 22.3N 128.3W 25 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 23.2N 130.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/1200Z 24.5N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Downgraded to Tropical Depression

021
WTPZ45 KNHC 162034
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009

DOLORES HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 1330 UTC...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT IF SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-FIRE...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY NOW THAT
THE CYCLONE IS OVER WATERS OF AROUND 24C.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16...AND THE TRACK REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION.

MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW DISSIPATING BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. HOWEVER...
THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE SOONER...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.3N 122.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 20.4N 125.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/1800Z 21.4N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/0600Z 22.3N 130.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/1800Z 22.9N 133.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Nice to come home this evening to find that BOTH of the EPAC's named systems have degenerated to a great degree.

Last Advisory

717
WTPZ45 KNHC 170232
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009

THERE ARE ONLY SOME PUNY CELLS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
DOLORES. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES DECREASING BELOW 24C...NO
SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AND THIS
SYSTEM IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OF DOLORES IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION...
WHICH MOST MODELS SHOW HAPPENING IN ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON DOLORES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.6N 124.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 17/1200Z 20.4N 126.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.4N 129.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/1200Z 22.3N 131.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 19/0000Z 23.5N 134.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

All is well in the EPAC this morning.