Thread: Tropical Depression Carlos

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBEDWEATHER ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJACALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICALDEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

2. THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...ARE CENTEREDABOUT 875 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
NNNN

At least it is moving away from land if it dioes develop

Yes - we can hope they all do this year!

Oh yes we can

wtpz34 knhc 110845
tcpep4
bulletin
tropical storm carlos advisory number 5
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep042009
200 am pdt sat jul 11 2009

...carlos still strengthening...

At 200 am pdt...0900 utc...the center of tropical storm carlos was
located near latitude 10.5 north...longitude 116.3 west or about 955
miles...1535 km...south-southwest of the southern tip of baja
california.

Carlos is moving toward the west near 13 mph...20 km/hr. A motion
just north of due west at this forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and carlos is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.

...summary of 200 am pdt information...
Location...10.5n 116.3w
maximum sustained winds...65 mph
present movement...west or 275 degrees at 13 mph
minimum central pressure...994 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
800 am pdt.

$$
forecaster berg

hawaii extended forecast discussion
nws hydrometeorological prediction center camp springs md
712 am edt sat jul 11 2009

valid 00z sun jul 12 2009 - 00z sun jul 19 2009

models display relatively small spread in the larger-scale
scenario over hawaii for the next 7 days...with the region
dominated by an upper high but with a persistent weakness in the
high remaining near or over the islands. This pattern results in
moderate to occasionally brisk trades most days with windward
areas receiving periodic rainfall. Meanwhile...tropical storm
carlos is expected to gradually intensify into a hurricane as it
approaches the big island around or shortly after day 7...with
slight weakening anticipated after day 5 due to increasing
shear near the weakness in the upper high.

James

wtpz34 knhc 111435
tcpep4
bulletin
tropical storm carlos advisory number 6
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep042009
800 am pdt sat jul 11 2009

...carlos expected to become a hurricane later today or on sunday...

At 800 am pdt...1500 utc...the center of tropical storm carlos was
located near latitude 10.4 north...longitude 116.6 west or about 970
miles...1560 km...south-southwest of the southern tip of baja
california.

Carlos is moving toward the west near 10 mph...17 km/hr. A motion
just north of due west with a small increase in forward speed is
expected during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Carlos is expected to become a hurricane later today or on
sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.

...summary of 800 am pdt information...
Location...10.4n 116.6w
maximum sustained winds...65 mph
present movement...west or 270 degrees at 10 mph
minimum central pressure...994 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
200 pm pdt.

$$
forecaster avila

Oh, my gosh!

carlos expected to become a hurricane later today or on sunday

At least he isi moving out to sea!