Thread: Tropical Depression Carlos

Carlos Weakens to
a Tropical Depression

Zczc miatcpep4 all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
bulletin
tropical depression carlos advisory number 26
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep
042009200 am pdt thu jul 16 2009

...carlos weakening fast...

at 200 am pdt...0900 utc...the center of tropical depression carloswas located near latitude 10.1 north...longitude 133.5 west or about 1790 miles...2885 km...west-southwest of the southern tip of bajacalifornia.

the depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph..23 km/hr. Thisgeneral motion is expected to continue until dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph...45km/hr...with higher gusts. Carlos is expected to become a remnant low later today.

estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches

....summary of 200 am pdt information
location...10.1n 133.5w
maximum sustained winds...30 mph
present movement...west or 270 degrees at 14 mph
minimum central pressure...1004 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 800 am pdt.

$$
forecaster avila
nnnn

That's good news.

wtpz44 knhc 161434
tcdep4
tropical depression carlos discussion number 27
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep042009
800 am pdt thu jul 16 2009

carlos has a small and poorly-defined low-level circulation but is
still producing some deep convection. The system is on the verge of
becoming a remnant low...and will likely be declared as such later
today.

The initial motion is near 270/14. A general westward motion is
expected to continue following the low-level easterlies until the
system dissipates.

Forecast positions and max winds

initial 16/1500z 9.8n 135.0w 25 kt
12hr vt 17/0000z 9.8n 136.9w 25 kt...remnant low
24hr vt 17/1200z 10.0n 139.3w 20 kt...remnant low
36hr vt 18/0000z 10.0n 141.5w 20 kt...remnant low
48hr vt 18/1200z 10.0n 144.0w 20 kt...remnant low
72hr vt 19/1200z...dissipated

$$
forecaster pasch

Last Advisory

556
WTPZ44 KNHC 162032
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009

CARLOS HAS BECOME A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL IN THE ITCZ WITH
VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE SYSTEM HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON
CARLOS.

THE REMNANT OF CARLOS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES UNTIL COMPLETELY LOSING ITS IDENTITY WITHIN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 9.4N 136.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 9.5N 138.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/1800Z 9.5N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/0600Z 9.5N 143.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/1800Z...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

This is lovely news.