Thread: Invest 93L - Western Caribbean

Zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt fri jun 26 2009

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

1. A tropical wave over the western caribbean sea continues to produce
a large area of showers and thunderstorms from cuba and the cayman
islands southwestward to honduras. No significant development of
this system is expected before it reaches the yucatan peninsula
early saturday...but conditions are forecast to become a little
more favorable once it moves into the southern gulf of mexico late
saturday or sunday. There is a medium chance...30 to 50 percent...
Of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours. Locally heavy rains will continue over portions of cuba and
the cayman islands today and spread westward over northern central
america and the yucatan peninsula over the next day or so.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster berg
nnnn

It's a bit early to tell where it's path will be once it reaches the Gulf...the models show east and west! We will have to keep an eye on this one.

Yup looking at that yesterday also a low in the east central gulf givin Florida a great deal of rain today.

Since it reallyt doesn't have a well definaed center yet, the models have nothing concrete on which to initialize. Can't really look to the models much before they have a good starting bopit.

Just an Invest.... nnot even an official Low yet. But does appear it might be attempting to try to organize... and NHC has it at orange already, so they must thiink something.

Probably shouldn't have posted the model graphic yet, but that purple line (HWRF) in combination with SHIPS intensity estimate at 5 days sort of got my attention.

613
abnt20 knhc 262331
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
800 pm edt fri jun 26 2009

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

Satellite images indicate that a tropical wave over the northwestern
caribbean sea continues to produce a large but disorganized area of
showers and thunderstorms from the coast of honduras northward to
western cuba. There are no signs of a surface circulation at this
time...and significant development of this system is not expected
before it reaches the yucatan peninsula early on saturday.
However...environmental conditions could become favorable for
development once the system emerges into the southern gulf of
mexico late saturday or sunday. There is a medium chance...30 to 50
percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours. Locally heavy rains will continue over portions of
cuba and honduras this evening and spread westward over northern
central america and the yucatan peninsula over the next day or so.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster blake

The yucatan is a good place for something to try to form, once it gets int gulf waters is when you may see something get going. Just have to wait and see.