Thread: Invest 93L - Western Caribbean

And we wait and watch.

Some low level convergence is increasing, notive the blue circle at the yukatan is at 10 while surrounding are at 5, That is new

It is a little more active now than it was early this morning, which is not surprising, but I don't THINK there have been any significant changes in level of organization ... we'll know in just over an hourwhat the if the NHC sees anything of note...
The next GTWO comes out at 2 PM Eastern.

ABNT20 KNHC 271748
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
OF THE WAVE REMAINS POORLY-DEFINED...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ONCE IT MOVES INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA AND COULD SPREAD
NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

The models have drastically changed! They've now got it heading north and a couple to the west, but Florida is completely out of the picture at this point in time, Have to wait and see what develops in the next 48 hours.

ABNT20 KNHC 272333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
WHILE NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA THROUGH SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

Code yellow

Back down to YELLOW

Our local on-air met hasn't seen the latest. Just said 30-50% chance of development.

We won't know much before monday, once we know how it is and where it is.

Still Yellow this morning, but it is now moving W and NW, rather than the NNE that would have taken it through the Ycatan Channel... It's now over, or nearly / moostly over land ... changes things