Invest 93L - Western Caribbean - Page 2 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

canarymoon · 06-26-2009, 09:06 PM

Waiting game. We're used to that. Won't be the first time, won't be the last.

sue miller · 06-26-2009, 09:09 PM

You bet

That is a big blob though, curious to see what it does

canarymoon · 06-26-2009, 09:20 PM

tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
805 pm edt fri jun 26 2009

tropical weather discussion for north america...central
america...gulf of mexico...caribbean sea...northern sections
of south america...and atlantic ocean to the african coast
from the equator to 32n. The following information is based
on satellite imagery...meteorological analysis...weather
observations...and radar.

Based on 1800 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 utc.

...special features...

An active tropical wave in the wrn caribbean is from 10n-21n
along 84w moving w near 15 kt. Accompanying the tropical wave is
a 1009 mb surface low analyzed along the wave axis near 17.5n. A
large cluster of scattered to numerous strong convection is
found e of the surface low from 14n-19n between 81w-85w and is
in between two upper level features. Strong moist sly middle to
upper level flow between an upper low over the yucatan peninsula
and ern bay of campeche and an upper level high centered over
jamaica is continuing to enhance the convection associated with
the tropical wave and surface low. Global models indicate this
area of disorganized weather will move towards the srn gulf of
mexico late saturday into sunday...with the possibility of
becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. In the
meantime...locally heavy rainfall will continue to fall in the
vicinity of this system over honduras and in the nw caribbean...
Spreading nwd over portions of the yucatan peninsula and much of
wrn and central cuba.

canarymoon · 06-27-2009, 04:37 AM

Zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
200 am edt sat jun 27 2009

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the
northwestern caribbean sea have decreased during the past several
hours. Significant development of this system is not anticipated
before it reaches the yucatan peninsula later today. However...
Environmental conditions could become favorable for some
development once the system emerges into the southern gulf of
mexico later tonight or sunday. There is a medium chance...30 to 50
percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours. Locally heavy rains are possible over portions of
western cuba and honduras today and could spread westward into
northern central america and the yucatan peninsula during the next
day or so.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster blake
nnnn

canarymoon · 06-27-2009, 04:41 AM

canarymoon · 06-27-2009, 09:10 AM

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCINGDISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AND THE CAYMANISLANDS WESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SATELLITE IMAGESINDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT WELL-DEFINED. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TODAYALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FORSOME DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OFMEXICO TONIGHT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRALCUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY ANDCOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY ORSO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS...

$$FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

canarymoon · 06-27-2009, 09:12 AM

Char · 06-27-2009, 09:16 AM

I don't like the look of those models!

One goes over you and one goes over me!

But we know that can change dramatically between now and the time this "matures".

canarymoon · 06-27-2009, 09:22 AM

Can, true.

There is LOTS of shear where it is right now, so not looking like much still, and still no LLC today.

HOWEVER - and this is the bad newes - IF it can maintain and IF it gets through the channel into the GOM, it's King's X.

Guess what it's like in the GOM? Warm SST's, very little shear, not much of anything to hinder development.
And one more thing: There's a big fat High sitting over Texas. IF it stays, that would keep it from going thata way, thus increasing the chances of it coming thisaway..

canarymoon · 06-27-2009, 09:50 AM

Just because there's not much of anything to hinder development in that area of the GOM doesn't necessarily mean development will take place. Just that it's possible. IF 93L first gets itself together, AND gets itself to THAT area WITHOUT falling apart. Hasn't gotten itself together yet. That's probably why it's still ORANGE.