Thread: Tropical depressionANDRES- dissipating

abpz20 knhc 201739
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1100 am pdt sat jun 20 2009

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 150
miles south of acapulco mexico. Conditions appear favorable for
additional development...and a tropical depression could form
during the next couple of days as this system moves slowly
westward. There is a medium chance...30 to 50 percent...of this
system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Heavy
rains associated with this system could affect portions of the
southern coast of mexico during the next day or two.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster brennan/berg

Zczc miatwoep all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
500 pm pdt sat jun 20 2009

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 160 miles south-southeast of acapulco mexico. Conditions appear favorable for further development...and a tropical depression could form in the next day or so as this system moves
slowly west-northwestward. There is a high chance...greater than 50 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development...heavy rains associated with this system could affect portions of the southern coast of mexico during the next day or two...and interests in this region should monitor the progress of this system.

hmmm...
Lots of convection there ... close to land

Looking at the model above, both ghe HWRF and the GFDL hae it making a brush with land, but continuing on over water. And Ships brings it to hurricane strength by Tuesday evening.

Might this be Andres in the making?

We will see what today brings. Could be the first named storm.

Morning advisory:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Not much change from last night. Still code red.

abpz20 knhc 211740
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1100 am pdt sun jun 21 2009

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure
centered about 175 miles southwest of acapulco mexico continue to
become better organized...and a tropical depression appears to be
forming. advisories on this system will likely be initiated later
today. there is a high chance...greater than 50 percent...of this
system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Heavy
rains could affect portions of the southern and southwestern coast
of mexico during the next day or two...and interests in this region
should monitor the progress of this system.