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wtpz32 knhc 221143
tcpep2
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tropical storm andres intermediate advisory number 3a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep022009
500 am pdt mon jun 22 2009
...andres moving slowly...
a tropical storm watch remains in effect from zihuatanejo mexico orthward to manzanillo mexico. A tropical storm watch means that
tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the southwestern coast of mexico should monitor the progress of andres.
At 500 am pdt the center of tropical storm andres was located near latitude 15.2 north...longitude 102.0 west or about 180 miles south of zihuatanejo mexico and about 325 miles south-southeast of manzanillo mexico.
Andres is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph and a slow northwest motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast...and andres could become a hurricane during the next couple of days.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb.
Locally heavy rains are possible over portions of southern and southwestern mexico during the next day or two.
...summary of 500 am pdt information...
Location...15.2n 102.0w
maximum sustained winds...50 mph
present movement...northwest or 310 degrees at 3 mph
minimum central pressure...997 mb
the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 800 am pdt.
Probably gonna mess with those cruisers currently cruising on Mexican Riviera itineraries.
That would include those aboard the Carnnival Splendor and the Mariner of the Seas.
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wtpz32 knhc 221444
tcpep2
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tropical storm andres advisory number 4
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep022009
800 am pdt mon jun 22 2009
...hurricane watch and tropical storm warning issued for southwestern mexico...
At 800 am pdt the government of mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for the southwestern coast of mexico from
lazaro cardenas to manzanillo. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning
area within 24 hours.
At 800 am...the government of mexico has issued a hurricane watch for the southwestern coast of mexico from lazaro cardenas to cabo
corrientes. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
At 800 am...the tropical storm watch for the coast of mexico from lazaro cardenas to zihuatanejo has been discontinued.
Interests elsewhere along the southwestern coast of mexico should monitor the progress of andres.
At 800 am pdt the center of tropical storm andres was located near latitude 16.0 north...longitude 102.0 west or about 120 miles south-southwest of zihuatanejo mexico and about 255 miles southeast of manzanillo mexico.
Andres is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph. A turn toward the northwest and some increase in forward speed is
expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track...andres will be passing very near the coast of southwestern mexico on
tuesday and tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph. with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and
andres could become a hurricane tomorrow.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb..
Andres is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over portions of west-central mexico...with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.
...summary of 800 am pdt information...
Location...16.0n 102.0w
maximum sustained winds...50 mph
present movement...north-northwest or 330 degrees at 5 mph
minimum central pressure...997 mb
an intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
center at 1100 am pdt followed by the next complete advisory at 200
pm pdt.
Wtpz42 knhc 221445
tcdep2
tropical storm andres discussion number 4
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep022009
800 am pdt mon jun 22 2009
a trmm microwave pass at 1035 utc showed that the center of andres
was located northeast of the expected position. Overall...andres
appears to be a little better organized...with very deep convection
near the center and a more symmetric outflow and convective
pattern. The initial intensity will be held at 45 kt in accordance
with the latest dvorak estimates from tafb/sab.
The best estimate of initial motion is 330/04...using the trmm and
quikscat microwave fixes from overnight. Water vapor images
indicate that upper trough over mexico is just north of andres and
this feature may have helped steer the system more northward than
expected. However...the global models show this trough weakening
and moving northward with time as ridging builds over mexico. The
exact timing of these events is critical to whether andres will
move northwestward near the coast of the mexico for the next day or
two or move onshore. The official forecast has been shifted to the
northeast and now shows the center of andres moving very close to
the mexican coast.
The intensity forecast this morning is tricky with the track
forecast edging closer to land. While andres remains under the
influence of warm ssts and light to moderate easterly shear...
Strengthening is likely. In a day or so...the proximity of the
tropical cyclone to land may inhibit further intensification. In a
couple of days...andres will begin to feel the effects of cooler
ssts south of baja california and more stable air...causing more
significant weakening. Most of the intensity guidance does not show
as much strengthening as before...probably because of the
increasing likelihood of significant land interaction. Little
change to the previous nhc forecast is shown at this time.
However...if the center moves any farther to the northeast...andres
could weaken significantly more than forecast in a couple of days.
Although the official forecast track does not explicitly
indicate landfall...it is close enough to the coast that a tropical
storm warning and a hurricane watch are now required for portions
of southwestern mexico.
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wtpz32 knhc 222034
tcpep2
bulletin
tropical storm andres advisory number 5
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep022009
200 pm pdt mon jun 22 2009
...andres continues to organize...
...hurricane warnings issued for the southwestern coast of mexico...
At 200 pm pdt the government of mexico has issued a hurricane warning for the southwestern coast of mexico from punto san telmo to cabo corrientes. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area
within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch remain in effect for the southwestern coast of mexico from lazaro cardenas to punto san telmo.
Interests elsewhere along the southwestern coast of mexico should monitor the progress of andres.
At 200 pm pdt the center of tropical storm andres was located near latitude 16.2 north...longitude 102.4 west or about 125 miles south of lazaro cardenas mexico and about 230 miles south-southeast of manzanillo mexico.
Andres is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours with a gradual increase in forward speed. On the forecast track...andres will pass very close to the southwestern coast of mexico in the warning area on tuesday and tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and andres could become a hurricane on tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb.
Andres is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over portions of west-central mexico...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...are possible as andres moves close to the warning area.
...summary of 200 pm pdt information...
Location...16.2n 102.4w
maximum sustained winds...60 mph
present movement...northwest or 315 degrees at 6 mph
minimum central pressure...995 mb
an intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
center at 500 pm pdt followed by the next complete advisory at 800
pm pdt.
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