Thread: Tropical Depression ONE E

Archived Outlooks

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 16 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURELOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVECHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THISSYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THENEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS AHIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN

don't know HOW we missed this - It has been RED all day!

High Potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162219 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

...CORRECTION TO LAST PARAGRAPH...

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS EMBEDDED NEAR THE NE END OF A
MONSOON TROUGH CIRCULATION OCCURRING BETWEEN 100W AND 118W. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY HAS SUGGESTED MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CENTERS
ROTATING CYCLONICALLY WITHIN AN ELONGATED MEAN CIRCULATION...WITH
THIS MEAN CENTER MOVING WNW NEAR 10 MPH. THE LOW LEVEL CENTERS HAVE
APPEARED INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS OCCURRING IN THE S AND SE QUADRANTS OUT TO 120 NM FROM THE
CENTER...SUGGESTING N TO NE WIND SHEAR. AT 18Z...A 1008 MB LOW
CENTER WAS ESTIMATED NEAR 14.5N105W...OR 285 MILES SW OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO. SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM TODAY REVEAL A BROAD ZONE OF SW TO
S WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDES OF THIS SYSTEM...
WHICH HAVE BEGUN TO SPIRAL IN TOWARDS THE CENTER. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

Yup also all that mess we were watching that was going to Jamaica, is all moving west into Mexico

Holy cow. It is coming at them from both sides. Hope nothing comes of either of them.

They are grounding flights at OIA

970
WTPZ31 KNHC 182349
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
500 PM PDT THU JUN 18 2009

...DEPRESSION MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF NORTH...STILL NEAR TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO AND FOR
LAS ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST OR ABOUT
340 MILES...545 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT
225 MILES...360 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA LATE FRIDAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.5N 107.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA

tropical depression one-e advisory number 4
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep012009
200 am pdt fri jun 19 2009

...tropical depression heading north-northeastward a little
faster...heavy rains approaching islas marias...

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for las islas marias.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the pacific coast of
mainland mexico from topolobampo southward to cabo corrientes.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

At 200 am pdt...0900 utc...the center of tropical depression one-e
was located near latitude 19.7 north...longitude 107.1 west or about
245 miles...395 km...south of mazatlan mexico and about 190 miles...
305 km...west-northwest of manzanillo mexico.

The depression has increased its forward speed slightly and is now
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph...19 km/hr. This
general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast
track...the center of the cyclone will be near islas marias later
today and the mainland coast of mexico on saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. There is still a possibility that the depression could
become a tropical storm today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.

Storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches...with locally higher amounts
in mountainous terrain...is possible in portions of western mexico
in association with the depression. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Moisture flowing
northward from the depression could enhance rainfall in northern
mexico and the southwestern united states.

...summary of 200 am pdt information...
Location...19.7n 107.1w
maximum sustained winds...35 mph
present movement...north-northeast or 20 degrees at 12 mph
minimum central pressure...1004 mb

an intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
center at 500 am pdt followed by the next complete advisory at 800
am pdt.

$$
forecaster avila/kimberlain

000
wtpz31 knhc 191133
tcpep1
bulletin
tropical depression one-e intermediate advisory number 4a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl ep012009
500 am pdt fri jun 19 2009

...tropical depression continues north-northeastward...
...heavy rains approaching the pacific coast of mexico...

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for las islas marias.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the pacific coast of
mainland mexico from topolobampo southward to cabo corrientes.


At 500 am pdt the center of tropical depression one-e was located near latitude 20.1 north...longitude 107.0 west or
about 215 miles south-southwest of mazatlan mexico.

The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today. On the
forecast track...the center of the cyclone will be near las islas marias later today and the mainland coast of mexico on saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph with higher gusts. There is still a possibility that the depression could
become a tropical storm today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb.

Storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches...with locally higher amounts in mountainous terrain...is possible in portions of western mexico
in association with the depression. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Moisture flowing
northward from the depression could enhance rainfall in northern mexico and the southwestern united states.

...summary of 500 am pdt information...
Location...20.1n 107.0w
maximum sustained winds...35 mph
present movement...north-northeast or 20 degrees at 12 mph
minimum central pressure...1003 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 800 am pdt.

$$
forecaster brennan/berg