Thread: Invest 91 E -- Epac SSW of Baja

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUN 10 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURELOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJACALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HASTHE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXTDAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THISSYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN

Zczc miatwoep all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
500 am pdt thu jun 11 2009

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..

1. Satellite images indicate that a tropical depression could be
forming about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of baja
california. If this development trend is confirmed by visible images
or additional microwave data...advisories will be initiated later
today. There is a high chance...greater than 50 percent...of this
system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster avila
nnnn

They all show it making landfall in Mexico if it keeps it's present direction

It's pretty much right on 'schedule,' too. In a "typical" year, the first named storm in the Eastern Pacific (EPAC) usually forms around June 9 - 12.

Estimated pressure: 1006 mb

(According to the TCFA)

Visible satellite images revealed that the disturbance centered
about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of baja california
is less organized than previously thought...and further development
into a tropical depression is not imminent. However...there still
is a high chance...greater than 50 percent...of this system
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

So they bought a little time, but the end result may be the same.