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MASTERES: 1/3 chance of named storm in 1st half of June
Here are a few short excerpt from Dr. Jeff Masters' blog for today:
Hurricane season is upon us, and it's time to take a look at the prevailing conditions and 2-week forecast . . . June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June.. .
. . . Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are close to average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year.These temperatures are some of the coolest we've seen since 1995, when the current active hurricane period began . . .
. . . Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida . . .
It's not just the SSTs that are important for hurricanes, it's also the total amount of heat in the ocean to a depth of about 150 meters. Hurricanes stir up water from down deep due to their high winds, so a shallow layer of warm water isn't as beneficial to a hurricane as a deep one. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is a measure of this total heat content. A high TCHP over 80 is very beneficial to rapid intensification. . . . . TCHP this year is similar to last year's levels, which were high enough to support five major hurricanes.
Recent history suggests a 36% chance of a named storm occurring in the first half of June. The current conditions in the atmosphere and ocean are near average, so expect about a 1/3 chance of a named storm between now and June 15. The computer models are currently not forecasting development of any tropical storms over the next seven days.
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