INVEST 90E Eastern Pacific - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Forum, Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 05-30-2009, 10:27 AM

WHXX01 KMIA 301232
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1232 UTC SAT MAY 30 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902009) 20090530 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090530 1200 090531 0000 090531 1200 090601 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.0N 97.0W 8.6N 98.5W 9.2N 100.1W 9.5N 102.1W
BAMD 8.0N 97.0W 8.3N 98.2W 8.7N 99.4W 9.1N 100.6W
BAMM 8.0N 97.0W 8.5N 98.4W 8.9N 99.8W 9.1N 101.4W
LBAR 8.0N 97.0W 8.5N 98.7W 9.2N 100.4W 9.9N 102.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090601 1200 090602 1200 090603 1200 090604 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 104.2W 10.3N 108.3W 10.4N 112.7W 11.0N 116.8W
BAMD 9.3N 101.8W 9.9N 104.8W 10.9N 108.6W 13.0N 112.5W
BAMM 9.2N 103.0W 9.6N 106.7W 10.1N 110.9W 11.3N 115.1W
LBAR 10.8N 104.7W 13.0N 109.0W 16.3N 112.0W 20.3N 113.0W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 43KTS 45KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 43KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.0N LONCUR = 97.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 8.0N LONM12 = 95.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 8.0N LONM24 = 93.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

sue miller · 05-30-2009, 10:28 AM

sue miller · 05-30-2009, 07:53 PM

11:00 AM PDT Tropical Weather Outlook

585
ABPZ20 KNHC 301737
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BERG

sue miller · 05-30-2009, 09:36 PM

abpz20 knhc 302339
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
500 pm pdt sat may 30 2009

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of
disturbed weather located several hundred miles south-southeast of
acapulco mexico remains disorganized. However...conditions appear
favorable for some slow development of this system during the next
couple of days as it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph. There is a low
chance... Less than 30 percent...of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster brown

sue miller · 05-31-2009, 10:40 AM

Has a bit of turning on the one in front, still has a chance, but looks a bit disorganized

sue miller · 05-31-2009, 10:41 AM

chge77
tropical cyclone guidance message
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1249 utc sun may 31 2009

disclaimer...numerical models are subject to large errors.
Please refer to nhc official forecasts for tropical cyclone
and subtropical cyclone information.

East pacific objective aids for

disturbance invest (ep902009) 20090531 1200 utc

...00 hrs... ...12 hrs... ...24 hrs. .. ...36 hrs...
090531 1200 090601 0000 090601 1200 090602 0000

lat lon lat lon lat lon lat lon
bams 9.0n 98.5w 9.5n 100.5w 10.0n 102.6w 10.5n 104.8w
bamd 9.0n 98.5w 9.3n 99.8w 9.5n 101.0w 9.6n 102.2w
bamm 9.0n 98.5w 9.3n 100.0w 9.5n 101.6w 9.8n 103.3w
lbar 9.0n 98.5w 9.5n 100.1w 10.2n 102.2w 11.4n 104.6w
ship 25kts 25kts 27kts 29kts
dshp 25kts 25kts 27kts 29kts

...48 hrs... ...72 hrs... ...96 hrs. .. ..120 hrs...
090602 1200 090603 1200 090604 1200 090605 1200

lat lon lat lon lat lon lat lon
bams 10.9n 106.8w 11.6n 110.8w 12.5n 114.1w 13.8n 117.4w
bamd 9.6n 103.6w 9.8n 107.4w 11.0n 111.2w 13.2n 115.2w
bamm 10.0n 105.1w 10.5n 109.0w 11.7n 112.8w 13.6n 116.6w
lbar 12.7n 107.1w 15.9n 111.3w 21.0n 113.2w 25.8n 110.8w
ship 33kts 39kts 39kts 35kts
dshp 33kts 39kts 39kts 35kts

...initial conditions...
Latcur = 9.0n loncur = 98.5w dircur = 270deg spdcur = 8kt
latm12 = 9.0n lonm12 = 96.8w dirm12 = 270deg spdm12 = 7kt
latm24 = 8.9n lonm24 = 95.6w
wndcur = 25kt rmaxwd = 100nm wndm12 = 25kt
cenprs = 1008mb outprs = 1010mb outrad = 275nm sdepth = m
rd34ne = 0nm rd34se = 0nm rd34sw = 0nm rd34nw = 0nm

$$

sue miller · 05-31-2009, 12:32 PM

TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN

sue miller · 05-31-2009, 08:54 PM

ABPZ20 KNHC 312338
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

sue miller · 06-01-2009, 07:45 AM

abpz20 knhc 010539
twoep
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
1100 pm pdt sun may 31 2009

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of disturbed
weather located several hundred miles south of acapulco mexico have
diminished this evening. Development of this system...if any...is
expected to be slow to occur as it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph.
There is a low chance...less than 30 percent...of this system
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
forecaster brown/cohen

sue miller · 06-01-2009, 08:48 AM

ABPZ20 KNHC 011134
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

RIP!