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Thread: INVEST 90E Eastern Pacific

  1. 05-30-2009, 08:27 AM #1
    sue miller
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    INVEST 90E Eastern Pacific

    WHXX01 KMIA 301232
    CHGE77
    TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    1232 UTC SAT MAY 30 2009

    DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
    PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
    AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

    EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

    DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902009) 20090530 1200 UTC

    ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
    090530 1200 090531 0000 090531 1200 090601 0000

    LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
    BAMS 8.0N 97.0W 8.6N 98.5W 9.2N 100.1W 9.5N 102.1W
    BAMD 8.0N 97.0W 8.3N 98.2W 8.7N 99.4W 9.1N 100.6W
    BAMM 8.0N 97.0W 8.5N 98.4W 8.9N 99.8W 9.1N 101.4W
    LBAR 8.0N 97.0W 8.5N 98.7W 9.2N 100.4W 9.9N 102.4W
    SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 31KTS
    DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 31KTS

    ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
    090601 1200 090602 1200 090603 1200 090604 1200

    LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
    BAMS 9.8N 104.2W 10.3N 108.3W 10.4N 112.7W 11.0N 116.8W
    BAMD 9.3N 101.8W 9.9N 104.8W 10.9N 108.6W 13.0N 112.5W
    BAMM 9.2N 103.0W 9.6N 106.7W 10.1N 110.9W 11.3N 115.1W
    LBAR 10.8N 104.7W 13.0N 109.0W 16.3N 112.0W 20.3N 113.0W
    SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 43KTS 45KTS
    DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 43KTS 45KTS

    ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
    LATCUR = 8.0N LONCUR = 97.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
    LATM12 = 8.0N LONM12 = 95.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
    LATM24 = 8.0N LONM24 = 93.0W
    WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
    CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M
    RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

    Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.


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  2. 05-30-2009, 08:28 AM #2
    sue miller
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    Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.


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  3. 05-30-2009, 05:53 PM #3
    sue miller
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    11:00 AM PDT Tropical Weather Outlook

    585
    ABPZ20 KNHC 301737
    TWOEP
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    1100 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2009

    FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED
    WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
    MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
    APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
    THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE
    IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
    TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    $$
    FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BERG
    Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.


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  4. 05-30-2009, 07:36 PM #4
    sue miller
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    abpz20 knhc 302339
    twoep
    tropical weather outlook
    nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
    500 pm pdt sat may 30 2009

    for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..

    Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of
    disturbed weather located several hundred miles south-southeast of
    acapulco mexico remains disorganized. However...conditions appear
    favorable for some slow development of this system during the next
    couple of days as it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph. There is a low
    chance... Less than 30 percent...of this system becoming a tropical
    cyclone during the next 48 hours.

    Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
    next 48 hours.

    $$
    forecaster brown
    Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.


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  5. 05-31-2009, 08:40 AM #5
    sue miller
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    Has a bit of turning on the one in front, still has a chance, but looks a bit disorganized

    Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.


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  6. 05-31-2009, 08:41 AM #6
    sue miller
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    chge77
    tropical cyclone guidance message
    nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
    1249 utc sun may 31 2009

    disclaimer...numerical models are subject to large errors.
    Please refer to nhc official forecasts for tropical cyclone
    and subtropical cyclone information.

    East pacific objective aids for

    disturbance invest (ep902009) 20090531 1200 utc

    ...00 hrs... ...12 hrs... ...24 hrs. .. ...36 hrs...
    090531 1200 090601 0000 090601 1200 090602 0000

    lat lon lat lon lat lon lat lon
    bams 9.0n 98.5w 9.5n 100.5w 10.0n 102.6w 10.5n 104.8w
    bamd 9.0n 98.5w 9.3n 99.8w 9.5n 101.0w 9.6n 102.2w
    bamm 9.0n 98.5w 9.3n 100.0w 9.5n 101.6w 9.8n 103.3w
    lbar 9.0n 98.5w 9.5n 100.1w 10.2n 102.2w 11.4n 104.6w
    ship 25kts 25kts 27kts 29kts
    dshp 25kts 25kts 27kts 29kts

    ...48 hrs... ...72 hrs... ...96 hrs. .. ..120 hrs...
    090602 1200 090603 1200 090604 1200 090605 1200

    lat lon lat lon lat lon lat lon
    bams 10.9n 106.8w 11.6n 110.8w 12.5n 114.1w 13.8n 117.4w
    bamd 9.6n 103.6w 9.8n 107.4w 11.0n 111.2w 13.2n 115.2w
    bamm 10.0n 105.1w 10.5n 109.0w 11.7n 112.8w 13.6n 116.6w
    lbar 12.7n 107.1w 15.9n 111.3w 21.0n 113.2w 25.8n 110.8w
    ship 33kts 39kts 39kts 35kts
    dshp 33kts 39kts 39kts 35kts

    ...initial conditions...
    Latcur = 9.0n loncur = 98.5w dircur = 270deg spdcur = 8kt
    latm12 = 9.0n lonm12 = 96.8w dirm12 = 270deg spdm12 = 7kt
    latm24 = 8.9n lonm24 = 95.6w
    wndcur = 25kt rmaxwd = 100nm wndm12 = 25kt
    cenprs = 1008mb outprs = 1010mb outrad = 275nm sdepth = m
    rd34ne = 0nm rd34se = 0nm rd34sw = 0nm rd34nw = 0nm

    $$
    Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.


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  7. 05-31-2009, 10:32 AM #7
    sue miller
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    TWOEP
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    500 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2009

    FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

    AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
    SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
    SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
    WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30
    PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN




    Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.


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  8. 05-31-2009, 06:54 PM #8
    sue miller
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    ABPZ20 KNHC 312338
    TWOEP
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    500 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2009

    FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

    SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
    DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
    MEXICO REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
    ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO
    10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
    SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
    Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.


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  9. 06-01-2009, 05:45 AM #9
    sue miller
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    abpz20 knhc 010539
    twoep
    tropical weather outlook
    nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
    1100 pm pdt sun may 31 2009

    for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude..

    Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of disturbed
    weather located several hundred miles south of acapulco mexico have
    diminished this evening. Development of this system...if any...is
    expected to be slow to occur as it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph.
    There is a low chance...less than 30 percent...of this system
    becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

    Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
    next 48 hours.

    $$
    forecaster brown/cohen
    Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.


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  10. 06-01-2009, 06:48 AM #10
    sue miller
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    ABPZ20 KNHC 011134
    TWOEP
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    500 AM PDT MON JUN 1 2009

    FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

    TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    $$
    FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE


    RIP!


    Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.


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