tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
805 pm edt mon may 18 2009
tropical weather discussion for north america...central
america...gulf of mexico...caribbean sea...northern sections
of south america...and atlantic ocean to the african coast
from the equator to 32n. The following information is based
on satellite imagery...meteorological analysis...weather
observations...and radar.
Based on 1800 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 utc.
..discussion...
Gulf of mexico...
A deep layer trough over the e conus and e gulf is associated
with a surface cold over the e gulf that extends from the south
florida peninsula near 26n82w to 26n83w. Farther to the sw...a
newly-developed 1010 mb surface low is located near 25n85w...
With a surface trough extending from 26n84w to the surface low
to 22n85w. This surface low is located beneath the southwestern
portion of the deep layer trough that extends into the e gulf.
Low level convergence near the low...trough...and cold front is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the gulf
from 23n-29n e of 87w...including the central and south florida
peninsula...the straits of florida...the florida keys...and w
cuba. This shower and thunderstorm activity is being enhanced by
upper level diffluence between the aforementioned deep trough
and an upper level ridge over the sw north atlc. During the next
day...the surface low is forecast to move eastward and be
located over the florida keys near 25n81w as a 1009 mb surface
low at 19/1800 utc. However...the future development and track
of the low remain uncertain...though computer model guidance
suggests that winds will increase around the low...which will
affect portions of the gulf of mexico. Across the west gulf...
Deep layer dry air...as well as subsidence with confluent upper
level northwesterly flow...are resulting in generally fair
weather conditions. Also...n to ne surface winds are occurring
across the w gulf...with wind speeds up to 25 kt across portions
of the nw gulf.
Tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
805 am edt tue may 19 2009
tropical weather discussion for north america...central
america...gulf of mexico...caribbean sea...northern sections
of south america...and atlantic ocean to the african coast
from the equator to 32n. The following information is based
on satellite imagery...meteorological analysis...weather
observations...and radar.
Based on 0600 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1015 utc.
...tropical waves...
A tropical wave is along 46w/47w to the south of 12n moving west
about 10 kt. The position of the wave at 19/0600 utc has been
pushed to the eastward in order to appear to agree more with the
shortwave infrared imagery. No deep convective precipitation
accompanies this wave at the present time. The wave's
representation in visible satellite imagery during the daytime
hours of yesterday shows that it was comparatively weak and not
easy to discern in the low cloud field.
...the itcz...
From the southern liberia coast near 4n7w...crossing the equator
along 26w...into northeastern brazil near 3s47w. Isolated and
disorganized moderate showers and locally strong thunderstorms
are to the south of 6n to the east of 50w.
...discussion...
The gulf of mexico...
The deep layer trough that supports the current south florida-
to-central gulf of mexico-to-southwestern gulf of mexico cold
front now has moved into the extreme eastern gulf of mexico...
From the florida straits to tampa florida to apalachee bay
of florida. Comparatively drier air moves across the open
gulf waters on current water vapor imagery. A 1010 mb low
pressure center is in the straits of florida near 24n81w.
The caribbean sea...
The middle level to upper level cuba/bahamas-to-southwestern
corner of the caribbean sea trough that spent 3 to 4 days in
nearly the same location finally has moved eastward. The trough
now extends from the mona passage to northwestern venezuela.
The trough has been pushed eastward by the surge of upper level
northwesterly wind that now that is related to the gulf of
mexico cold front. Strong showers and thunderstorms are in
colombia from 7n to 8n between 73w and 77w. Isolated moderate
showers are from 17n to the southern coast of hispaniola between
the eastern and western ends of the island.
The atlantic ocean...
The whole scenario of surface low pressure centers is developing
comparatively more and more each day. A 1010 mb low pressure has
formed in the straits of florida. A 1010 low pressure center
that is forecast to become a gale center during the next
24 hours currently is just to the west of the ragged island
range. Showers and thunderstorms range from the waters between
andros island and south florida to the northern bahama islands...
And from the turks islands to long island/rum cay/crooked island.
The same deep layer central atlantic ocean cyclonic circulation
center is near 31n52w. A 1013 mb low pressure center is near
31n54w. An occluded front extends from the low center to 34n49w
and 31n46w. A stationary boundary is along 31n46w 22n50w 18n60w
18n65w. A warm front continues from 18n65w...to northeastern
puerto rico...to the southeastern bahama islands to the ragged
island range 1010 mb low pressure center. Isolated moderate
showers are within 15 nm to 30 nm on either side of the
stationary front as upper level anticyclonic flow cuts across
the top of the area of the front.
Special tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
830 am edt tue may 19 2009
for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the weak
area of low pressure located near the central bahamas is becoming
absorbed by a larger non-tropical low centered over florida.
Development of this system now appears unlikely...and the air force
reserve hurricane hunter aircraft mission scheduled for today has
been canceled. In addition...little development of the non-tropical
low over florida is expected as it moves westward into the gulf of
mexico at 10 mph over the next day or two. There is a low
chance...less than 30 percent...of tropical cyclone development in
this area during the next 48 hours. This will be the last special
tropical weather outlook issued for this system.
Ii am copying this paragraph in its entireity from Jeff Masters' blog. In this particular case, I don't thiink that either Dr. Masters, or Portlight, who he is talking about, will mind:
Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida in May, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Specifically, the Portlight team will be assisting with the rebuilding of two homes. One of the homes is owned by a single mother who stood in her house crying, in two feet of water, as she prepared to go to her daughters graduation. The other home is owned by a elderly woman whose husband passed away two years ago. Neither of these families had flood insurance, and can not afford even the lowest interest rate loans provided by FEMA. Portlight's work in Holly Hill, FL will begin on Friday June 12; if you are interested in volunteering, please contact John Wilbanks, john@portlight.org 843-200-6022. There are plenty of stories very similar to these two. Portlight's ability to help is only limited by your assistance, so please consider volunteering or donating today by visiting the Portlight disaster relief blog..
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