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Thread: 2009Hurricane Forecast: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

  1. #1
    CLF Officer canarymoon's Avatar
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    2009Hurricane Forecast: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

    The UK based group, Tropical Stormm Risk, hass released their April predictions for the 2009 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season. As you can see below, at this point, they are predicting an above average season for 2009:




    OVERALLL PREDICTION (April)

    Storm Classification- - -2009 - - - - - - Average

    Tropical Storms: - - - - 15.0 - - - - - - (10.4)

    Hurricanes: - - - - - - - - 7.8 - - - - - -- (6.2)

    Intense Hurricanes: - - 3.6 - - - - - - - (2.7)




    The 'average' numbers represent an average for the years 1950 through 2008. TSR notes that their accuracy level this far out is fairly low.

  2. #2
    CLF Officer canarymoon's Avatar
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    U.S. Landfall PREDICTION (April)

    Storm Classification- - -2009 - - - - - - Average


    Tropical Storms: - - - - - 4.8- - - - - - - (2.1)

    Hurricanes: - - - - - - - - 3.2 - - - - - -- (1.5)




    Caribbean and Lesser Antilles Landfall PREDICTION (April)

    Storm Classification- - -2009 - - - - - - Average

    Tropical Storms: - - - - - 1.4- - - - - - - (1.1)

    Hurricanes: - - - - - - - - 0.6 - - - - - -- (0.5)


    Intense Hurricanes: - - 0.3 - - - - - - - (0.2)





  3. #3
    CLF Officer canarymoon's Avatar
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    According to TSR, here are the probabalities of the season being above average, near normal, and below normal:

    OVERALL:
    Above average: 63%
    Near average: 24%
    Below average: 13%


    For USA landfalling systems:
    Above average: 67%
    Near average: 20%
    Below average: 13%

  4. #4
    CLF Officer canarymoon's Avatar
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    TSR's April numbers are very slightly higher than their own numbers published in December. They are also a bit higher than the Colorado State University numbers from Drs. Gray and Katzenbach.

    TSR's next forecast date is June 4.

  5. #5
    CLF Officer canarymoon's Avatar
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    9 Days until
    the start of
    Atlantic Basin
    Hurricane Season

  6. #6
    CLF Officer canarymoon's Avatar
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    TSR Lowers its 2009 forecast

    Tropical Storm Risk has has followed other forecast organizations, by loweringd its forecast for the number of storms it predctsfor the 2009 season.

    In their most recent report, they are calling for 50% probability that the season will be in the bottom third of all years in terms of activity, and a 40 % chance that US Landfall activity will also be in the bottom third.

    The news just keeps getting better!



  7. #7
    CLF Officer canarymoon's Avatar
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    10.9 / 5.2 / 2.2
    The specific numbers they are now publishing is 10.9 named storms, with 5.2 of those becoming hurricanes, and 2.2 of thos reaching major hurricane strength.

  8. #8
    CLF Officer canarymoon's Avatar
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    TSR Adjusts its 2009 forecast Upwards!

    12.6 / 6.5/ 2.8


    The specific numbers they are now publishing is 12.6named storms, with 6.5 of those becoming hurricanes, and 2.8 of those reaching major hurricane strength


    this is an upward adjustment of their JUNE forecast which was 10.9 / 5.2 / 2.2

  9. #9
    CLF Officer sue miller's Avatar
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    Yikes, if they are right it will be a busy next 4 mos
    Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me! I want people to know why I look this way. I've traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren't paved.



  10. #10
    CLF Officer canarymoon's Avatar
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    Yes, it will.

    On the other hand, CSU has today lowered their numbers.

    Go figure.

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