Thread: 2009Hurricane Forecast: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

The UK based group, Tropical Stormm Risk, hass released their April predictions for the 2009 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season. As you can see below, at this point, they are predicting an above average season for 2009:




OVERALLL PREDICTION (April)

Storm Classification- - -2009 - - - - - - Average

Tropical Storms: - - - - 15.0 - - - - - - (10.4)

Hurricanes: - - - - - - - - 7.8 - - - - - -- (6.2)

Intense Hurricanes: - - 3.6 - - - - - - - (2.7)




The 'average' numbers represent an average for the years 1950 through 2008. TSR notes that their accuracy level this far out is fairly low.

U.S. Landfall PREDICTION (April)

Storm Classification- - -2009 - - - - - - Average

Tropical Storms: - - - - - 4.8- - - - - - - (2.1)

Hurricanes: - - - - - - - - 3.2 - - - - - -- (1.5)




Caribbean and Lesser Antilles Landfall PREDICTION (April)

Storm Classification- - -2009 - - - - - - Average

Tropical Storms: - - - - - 1.4- - - - - - - (1.1)

Hurricanes: - - - - - - - - 0.6 - - - - - -- (0.5)

Intense Hurricanes: - - 0.3 - - - - - - - (0.2)

According to TSR, here are the probabalities of the season being above average, near normal, and below normal:

OVERALL:
Above average: 63%
Near average: 24%
Below average: 13%


For USA landfalling systems:
Above average: 67%
Near average: 20%
Below average: 13%

TSR's April numbers are very slightly higher than their own numbers published in December. They are also a bit higher than the Colorado State University numbers from Drs. Gray and Katzenbach.

TSR's next forecast date is June 4.

9 Days until
the start of
Atlantic Basin
Hurricane Season

TSR Lowers its 2009 forecast

Tropical Storm Risk has has followed other forecast organizations, by loweringd its forecast for the number of storms it predctsfor the 2009 season.

In their most recent report, they are calling for 50% probability that the season will be in the bottom third of all years in terms of activity, and a 40 % chance that US Landfall activity will also be in the bottom third.

The news just keeps getting better!

10.9 / 5.2 / 2.2
The specific numbers they are now publishing is 10.9 named storms, with 5.2 of those becoming hurricanes, and 2.2 of thos reaching major hurricane strength.

TSR Adjusts its 2009 forecast Upwards!

12.6 / 6.5/ 2.8


The specific numbers they are now publishing is 12.6named storms, with 6.5 of those becoming hurricanes, and 2.8 of those reaching major hurricane strength


this is an upward adjustment of their JUNE forecast which was 10.9 / 5.2 / 2.2

Yikes, if they are right it will be a busy next 4 mos

Yes, it will.

On the other hand, CSU has today lowered their numbers.

Go figure.