Thread: Tropical Cyclone Hamish - Near Australia

Tropical cyclone (tc) 18p (hamish), located approximately 395 nm
north-northwest of Brisbane, Australia, has tracked southeastward
at 06 knots over the past 06 hours. Hamish remains a very intense
tropical cyclone as confirmed by Dvorak satellite estimates from
pgtw and abrf ranging from 115 to 127 knots. The system is forecast
to continue to parallel the eastern coast of Australia for the
next 12 to 24 hours, then move increasingly seaward. Deep layer
ridging to the east will continue to be the primary steering
mechanism; although, if the system weakens faster than anticipated,
low to mid-level easterlies will steer the cyclone towards land.
Moderate to high vertical wind shear, associated with a strong
subtropical jet, will promote this weakening. Maximum significant
wave height at 081200z is 21 feet. Next warnings at 090300z and

Very intense tropical cyclone Hamish is forecast to strike Australia at about 12:00 GMT on 9 March. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 24.0 S, 153.4 E. Hamish is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 212 km/h (132 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.


According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Hamish's strength (category 4) at landfall includes:

• Storm surge generally 4.0-5.5 metres (13-18 feet) above normal.
• Curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences.
• Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down.
• Complete destruction of mobile homes.
• Extensive damage to doors and windows.
• Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the centre of the storm.
• Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore.
• Terrain lower than 3 metres (10 feet) above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 10 km (6 miles).

There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice. .

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL). TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Lets hope it stays away from land

From Accuweather:

Strong T.C. Hamish Lashing Northeastern Australia

As of midday Sunday EDT, the center of Tropical Cyclone Hamish was located near 20.4 south and 150.8 east, or about 465 miles north-northwest of Brisbane, Australia. Movement was to the south-southeast at 10 mph. Maximum-sustained winds remain near 150 mph with gusts over 185 mph. Hamish is expected to slowly weaken now due to interaction with land and increasing wind shear aloft. While the center of the cyclone should remain just offshore, gusty winds and heavy, flooding rain will affect the coasts of Queensland and northeastern New South Wales on Sunday and into early next week. Rain may lead to renewed flooding problems across the same areas still recovering from widespread flooding last month.

Originally Posted by sue miller

Lets hope it stays away from land

It should - UNLESS it weakens some then, they say, it could be veer into land. Let's hope it doesn't!

As it is, they have evecuated those out islands...

Hope the flooding isn't catistrophic, cat 4.

Here's the latest Advisory I could find:

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 28
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:38am on Monday the 9th of March 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Yeppoon to Hervey Bay. A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island
communities from Hervey Bay to Tewantin.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE, is located off the central
Queensland coast and at 7:00 am EST was estimated to be 215 kilometres northeast
of Yeppoon and 345 kilometres north of Bundaberg, moving southeast at 12
kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a threat to exposed coastal and island
communities between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay [including Heron and Lady Elliot
Islands]. The cyclone is expected to maintain a southeast track parallel to the
coast during the next 24 hours and slowly weaken.

Damaging winds are expected to affect exposed islands between Yeppoon and Hervey
Bay, and may affect coastal areas in this region if the cyclone takes a more
southerly track.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Hervey Bay and Tewantin during the next 24 hours, however they may
develop within 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated
above the normal tide along the coastline and large waves may produce minor
flooding along the foreshore, particularly between Yeppoon and Gladstone on the
high tide this morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this
flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and
be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate SEVERE WEATHER WARNING has been issued for large southeasterly swells
and inundation above the normal high tide between Proserpine and Yeppoon.

Fingers crossed