Thread: 2009 Hurricane Forecasts: Klotzbach & Gray

Here is sthe long range prediction for the 2009 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season. This forecast was released on December 10, 2008, by Drs. klotzbach and Gray, of Colorado University, and will be updated or revised on April 7 and again on June 2, the day after the official start of the season.

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2009 Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)

10 December 2008
Forecast for 2009

Named Storms (NS) (9.6) - 14
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) - 70
Hurricanes (H) (5.9) - 7
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) - 30
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) - 3
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0) - 7
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) - 125
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%) - 135

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 63% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 39% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 38% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

Now, of course, these arae just predictions . . . and long range ones, at that - but by a couple of experts.

Experts can be, and have been, wrong.

92 days to the start of hurricane season.

That's not very long!

Nope, right around the corner.

For the past several years, about this time, DH and I seem to have the same conversaion.

It starts with me telling him about the forecast for the upcoming season (lately, they've forecast above average activity)
Then ...

He: Yes, well remember several years ago they said that and we didn't have a problems at all.

Me: No - nothing big hit OUR house, but there were TWO landfalling Cat 5's in the Caribbean, wiping out an entire town, and killing people. First time in history there were two Cat 5 landfalls in one season.

He: Oh, yeah, that's right, I guess we sometimes forget about the ones that don't hit the U.S.

That is true, but we still have to prepare as though it would. In this years economy which is very scary, it would not hurt to start getting a few supplies in that would last 2 weeks in case of power loss. Gallons of water, canned goods and a manual can opener if money is really tight. With 3 months left, a little here and there won't be so bad.

Yep - it won't hurt quite as bad to start early, and do just a little bit at a time.
One or two items a week, maybe -

We can only hope that this year won't be a bad one. With everything else, we need a break.

Reggie