CSU Again LOWERS their Prediction for 2009

August Updated Forecast from the CSU Team:

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR


2009 Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)



-----------------------------10 Dec 2008.. 4/9/2009 . . . 6/2/2009 . . . 8/4/2009
--------------------------------Forecast .... Forecast . . Forecast. . . .Forecast
Storms (Average)
Named Storms (9.6) ------------ 14 --------- 12 ------------- 11---------10
Named Storm Days (49.1) -------70 ---------55 ------------- 50---------45
Hurricanes (5.9) ------------------- 7 -----------6 -------------- 9 --------4
Hurricane Days (24.5) ------------ 30 -------- 25 ------------ 20 --------18
Intense Hurricanes (2.3) ----------- 3 --------- 2 ------------- 2 --------2
Intense Hurricane Days (5.0) ----- 7 ----------5 ------------- 4 --------4
Accum. Cyclone Energy (96.1) -- 125 ------- 100 --------- 85 -------- 80
Net Trop. Cycl. Activity (100%) - 135 ------ 105 ---------- 90 -------- 85

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PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING UNITED STATES COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline -DOWN from 48% to 46% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - DOWN from 28% to 27% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - DoWN from 28% to 26% (average for last century is 30%)

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PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W)

1) DOWN fron 39% to 37% (average for last century is 42%)

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