Thread: 2009 Hurricane Forecasts: Klotzbach & Gray

How would I know? I'm not in Florida.

Perhaps not, but I have it on good authority that you are very good at evacuatingTO Florida when a system threatens Texas.

Not sure I am going to be brave enough to schedule a cruise in Sept for a while! I don't know if I could leave my cat knowing what could happen while I was gone. Of course, Rita never hit here, and I slept through Ike, but the next one could get us.

The next one could get ANY of us, MC.

And it's ALREADY started ... TD# 1 is expected to reach Tropical Storm status, and become Ana within 12 - 24 hours.

Not gonna get anywheree either of us - or anyone on land, for that matter, but it's an early start, and just one more reminder that you never know . . .

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR


2009 Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)



-----------------------------10 Dec 2008.... 9 April 2009 . . . . June 2 22009
--------------------------------Forecast ......... Forecast . . . . . Forecast
Storms (Average)
Named Storms (9.6) ------------ 14 ----------- 12 ---------------- 11
Named Storm Days (49.1) -------70 -----------55 ---------------- 50
Hurricanes (5.9) ------------------- 7 -------------6 ----------------- 9
Hurricane Days (24.5) ------------ 30 ---------- 25 --------------- 20
Intense Hurricanes (2.3) ----------- 3 ----------- 2 ---------------- 2
Intense Hurricane Days (5.0) ----- 7 ------------5 ---------------- 4
Accum. Cyclone Energy (96.1) -- 125 -------- 100 -------------- 85
Net Trop. Cycl. Activity (100%) - 135 -------- 105 -------------- 90

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING UNITED STATES COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 48% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 28% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 28% (average for last century is 30%)

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W)

1) 39% (average for last century is 42%)

Link for full June 2 report:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu...09/jun2009.pdf

Originally Posted by canarymoon

The next one could get ANY of us, MC.

And it's ALREADY started ... TD# 1 is expected to reach Tropical Storm status, and become Ana within 12 - 24 hours.

Not gonna get anywheree either of us - or anyone on land, for that matter, but it's an early start, and just one more reminder that you never know . . .

Well, this never happened. Although several prominent mets publicly stated that it would become a T.S, and even the NHC seemed to be leaning that way very brierfly, she never materialized. So, Ana has yet to appear.

august has begun, and still no Ana.