Thread: Invest 96L - N of Panama

Well . . . the tropics seem to want to remind us that it's still hurricane season. Here's a satelite pic of the lates disturbance in the Caribbean, 96L

Zczc miatwoat all
ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
100 am est mon nov 24 2008

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

1. A broad low pressure system located just north of panama is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
southwestern caribbean sea and adjacent land areas. Shower and
thunderstorm activity has continued to become better organized...and
a tropical depression could form in the next day or two if the
system remains over water as it drifts slowly westward. Regardless
of whether or not a tropical cyclone forms...heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will be possible over portions of panama...costa
rica...and nicaragua during the next couple of days.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$

forecaster brennan/stewart

Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 5:34 pm
Posts: 25326
Location: Miami, Florida, USA, North America, Planet Earth, Solar System "Sol", Milky Way Galaxy TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED N OF
PANAMA NEAR 10N80W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS SURFACE LOW IS INTERACTING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 77W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND E NICARAGUA. THIS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE LAST DAY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

The last hurrah before the hurricane season is "officially" over. Hope this doesn't develop or change direction like on of the models shows! We might be doing an Eastern Caribbean instead of a Western come Sunday!

Good news!
The NHC has now taken this disturbance down fro Orange to Yellow.
So, chances of near-term development have lessened.

000
abnt20 knhc 241725
twoat
tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
100 pm est mon nov 24 2008

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

A large area of disturbed weather continues over the southwestern
caribbean sea associated with a broad area of low pressure. There
are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time and further
development...if any...is expected to be slow. This system will
likely produce heavy rains and localized flooding over portions of
panama...costa rica...and nicaragua during the next couple of days.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$

forecaster avila

That's indeed good news---that there won't be development. Not such good news about the flooding.

Well, it's not gone - yet. I certainly hope this meands it's on its way out, though.

The NHC is still watching this thing tonight, BUT they have kept it at yellow, which is good news.