Thread: T.D. Paloma - exiting Cuba

000
wtnt43 knhc 052102
tcdat3
tropical depression seventeen discussion number 1
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al172008
400 pm est wed nov 05 2008

the area of disturbed weather in the southwestern caribbean sea has
developed enough organized convection and low-level circulation to
be considered a tropical depression. An air force hurricane hunter
found maximum winds of 26 kt at 1000 ft with a minimum pressure of
1004 mb. Satellite images show that most of the convection is
northwest of the center but is starting to take on a banded
appearance. The initial intensity is set to 25 kt in accordance
with the aircraft data and noaa buoy 42057.

Atmospheric and oceanic parameters appear to be very favorable for
strengthening during the next couple of days. In fact...the gfdl
and hwrf turn the depression into a major hurricane before crossing
cuba. In contrast...the ships/lgem models keep the system below
hurricane strength...which seems a little underdone given a large
upper anticyclone that all of the global models are forming near
the depression. The official forecast will be closer to the
dynamical guidance but not quite as bullish as those models for the
time being. Near the end of the period...vertical shear is
forecast to increase dramatically and this could result in an
abrupt weakening.

A twelve-hour motion of this system is estimated at 305/4. A slow
northwest to north movement is expected during the next day or two
as the depression is steered around southwestern side of a mid-
tropospheric high over the north-central caribbean sea. A deep
trough is expected to move into the gulf of mexico in about 3
days...which should cause the cyclone to turn toward the northeast
and accelerate. There are some significant speed discrepancies in
the models with the gfdl/hwrf considerably faster than the
gfs/ecmwf/ukmet models. Late-season tropical cyclones are often
notoriously slow-moving...e.g. Mitch or wilma...and the models can
be too quick to eject these systems out of the caribbean. We're
going to lean toward the slower guidance at this time...and the nhc
forecast is a bit behind the dynamical model consensus.


Forecast positions and max winds

initial 05/2100z 14.0n 81.8w 25 kt
12hr vt 06/0600z 14.3n 82.2w 30 kt
24hr vt 06/1800z 14.8n 82.5w 40 kt
36hr vt 07/0600z 15.5n 82.9w 50 kt
48hr vt 07/1800z 16.5n 83.0w 65 kt
72hr vt 08/1800z 18.0n 82.5w 75 kt
96hr vt 09/1800z 19.5n 80.0w 75 kt
120hr vt 10/1800z 21.5n 75.5w 50 kt

$$
forecaster blake/pasch

T.D. 17 Has become
Tropical Storm Paloma

Where is she tracking?

000
wtnt32 knhc 061146
tcpat2
bulletin
tropical storm paloma intermediate advisory number 3a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al172008
700 am est thu nov 06 2008

...paloma becoming better organized as it moves slowly north-northwestward...

A tropical storm watch remains in effect from puerto cabezas nicaragua northward to limon honduras. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...in this case within 24-36 hours.

Interests in the cayman islands should monitor the progress of paloma. Watches or warnings may be required for the cayman islands later today.

At 700 am est...1200z...the center of tropical storm paloma was located near latitude 15.3 north...longitude 82.2 west or about 70 miles east-northeast of cabo gracias a dios on the nicaragua/honduras border.

Paloma is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through tonight...with a gradual turn toward the north expected on friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days...and paloma could become a hurricane on friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb..

Paloma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over eastern honduras...northeastern nicaragua...and the cayman islands...with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches possible.

Repeating the 700 am est position...15.3 n...82.2 w. Movement toward...north-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 1000 am est.

$$
forecaster beven

This morning I heard on the weather that it could cause problems this weekend for any going to the Bahamas ....

wtnt42 knhc 061435
tcdat2
tropical storm paloma discussion number 4
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al172008
1000 am est thu nov 06 2008

satellite images show an organizing tropical cyclone with a central
dense overcast feature developing near the apparent center. Banding
features are also becoming more prominent especially north of the
center. The initial intensity is increased to 40 kt...a compromise
between objective and subjective t-numbers. An air force aircraft
is scheduled to be in the area around 1800z to provide a better
estimate.

Warm caribbean waters...light shear...and perhaps a developing inner
core structure should favor intensification of this system for the
next couple of days. A rapid strengthening of paloma is also
possible with these conditions and the ships index suggests that
the probability of rapid intensification is 3-4 times the
climatological average. However...vertical wind shear is
anticipated to be quite strong in 60-120 hour time periods due to
an approaching trough and this shear should then cause weakening.
The nhc forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the
intensity forecast guidance. There is certainly the possibility
that paloma would get stronger than shown below in between official
forecast times and it is worth noting that the gfdl/hwrf still
forecast the storm to be at or near major hurricane strength in the
caribbean sea.

Based on the previous aircraft data and satellite fixes...the
initial motion is 340/6. This general motion...with a turn to the
north tomorrow... Is forecast for the next day or so as the
tropical cyclone makes it way around the western side of ridging
over the central caribbean. Model guidance is in pretty good
agreement and little change was made to the official forecast early
on. However...the forecast uncertainty increases dramatically as
paloma encounters increasing southwesterly flow in the middle- to
upper-levels by the weekend due to a powerful trough moving into
the eastern united states. If the system remains a vertically-
coherent tropical cyclone...paloma should move northeastward across
cuba through the bahamas in a speedy fashion...similar to the
solutions provided by the gfdl/hwrf/bamd models. However...the
ecmwf/ukmet/nogaps models are suggesting that vertical wind shear
will rip paloma apart...leaving the low-level circulation behind in
the caribbean while the mid/upper-level remnants shoot off to the
northeast. We're going to continue the forecast reasoning that
paloma will remain a strong and vertically deep hurricane for the
next several days...and the track forecast leans toward the
gfdl/hwrf/bamd scenario. However... The forecast forward speed
after 72 hr will be still be slower than what those models are
indicating.

The tropical storm watch for portions of nicaragua and honduras will
likely be discontinued later today.

Forecast positions and max winds

initial 06/1500z 15.6n 82.3w 40 kt
12hr vt 07/0000z 16.3n 82.6w 50 kt
24hr vt 07/1200z 17.3n 82.8w 60 kt
36hr vt 08/0000z 18.3n 82.7w 70 kt
48hr vt 08/1200z 19.3n 82.0w 85 kt
72hr vt 09/1200z 20.5n 80.0w 85 kt
96hr vt 10/1200z 22.5n 76.5w 55 kt
120hr vt 11/1200z 25.0n 73.0w 45 kt...extratropical

$$
forecaster blake/pasch

If it misses the trough it could go closer to Florida, but there is a lot of shear there as well, It is expect to take a Cuba landfall then to the Bahamas, but it will all depend on it's speed.