Thread: T.D. Paloma - exiting Cuba

Paloma continues to be well organized, and it appears an eye is ready to pop out. We haven't had a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the eye since 3:39 am EST when a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a 982 mb pressure and 80 mph winds, so we don't know the strength of Paloma very well. The Hurricane Hunters noticed that the eyewall had a gap in its west side. This lack of a complete eyewall has slowed down Paloma's intensification, and is probably due to the 10-15 knots of wind shear currently impacting the storm.

Also of interest from Dr Masters' blog today:

A new record for the hurricane season of 2008?
This year and 2005 are the only seasons that we've had major hurricanes in the Atlantic in four separate months--July, August, September, and October. If Paloma becomes a major hurricane, it will make 2008 the first year since record keeping began in 1851 to feature major hurricanes in five separate months.

Hooray for wind shear! Let's hope it continues to disrupt the eyewall.....we don't want 2008 to be a record breaking year!

It's supposed to hit Grnd Cayman this evening... probably as a strong Cat 1.

Tropical Weather Update
November 7, 2008 – Noon
Royal Caribbean International continues to closely monitor the path and progress of Hurricane Paloma to ensure our guests enjoy safe and comfortable cruises, and to make certain our ships steer clear of the storm.

The safety of our guests and crew members is always our foremost concern.

Given the location and projected path of Hurricane Paloma, we are altering the itinerary of one ship:


Ships sailing from the Port of Baltimore

• Grandeur of the Seas, which departed October 30, will not make its scheduled port of call in Georgetown, Cayman Islands, Saturday. Instead, the ship will visit Cozumel, Mexico that day.

At this time, no other Royal Caribbean International ships are being adversely impacted by tropical weather. We will continue to closely monitor weather conditions and update this information Friday, November 7, at 6:30 p.m.

hurricane paloma intermediate advisory number 8a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al172008
100 pm est fri nov 07 2008

...paloma intensifies a little more...heading toward grand cayman...

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the cayman islands. A
hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A hurricane watch remains in effect for the cuban provinces of
sancti spiritus...ciego de avila...camaguey...las tunas...and
granma. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in cuba...jamaica and the central bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of paloma. Additional watches and
warnings may be necessary for portions of cuba later today.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

At 100 pm est...1800z...the center of hurricane paloma was located
near latitude 18.4 north...longitude 81.3 west or about 60 miles...
100 km...south of grand cayman and about 220 miles...355 km...west
of montego bay jamaica.

Paloma is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph...10 km/hr. A
gradual turn toward the northeast is expected tonight and saturday.
On the forecast track...the center of paloma will pass near the
cayman islands tonight or early saturday and be approaching the
coast of central cuba late saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph...150
km/hr...with higher gusts. Paloma is a category one hurricane on
the saffir-simpson scale. Further strengthening is likely and
paloma is expected to become a category two hurricane later
today...and possibly reach category three intensity late tonight or
on saturday.

Data from the noaa hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that hurricane
force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105
miles...165 km.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from a noaa hurricane
hunter plane is 974 mb...28.91 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels...
Accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is expected
near the center of paloma in the cayman islands.

Paloma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to
10 inches over the cayman islands and central and eastern cuba with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches possible. Flash flood and
mudslides are also possible...especially in higher terrain.

Repeating the 100 pm est position...18.4 n...81.3 w. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds...90
mph. Minimum central pressure...974 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
400 pm est.

$$
forecaster blake/franklin

Got word that the Zuiderdam MIGHT be affected by Paloma.

The Zuiderdam as it is will not be boarding passengers until 9 PM and sailing at Midnight on Nov 9 due to a Norvo Virus outbreak. She also will not stop at HMC as schedule so as to not infect the passengers on the Westerdam but instead will go to Nassau.

at 400 pm est...2100z...the center of hurricane paloma was located
near latitude 18.7 north...longitude 81.3 west or about 40 miles...
70 km...south of grand cayman and about 290 miles...465 km...
Southwest of camaguey cuba.

Paloma is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph...9 km/hr. A
turn toward the northeast is expected overnight and that general
motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track...the center of paloma will pass near the cayman islands
tonight or early saturday and be approaching the coast of central
cuba late saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Paloma is a category two hurricane on the saffir-simpson
scale. Further strengthening is likely and paloma could become a
category three hurricane tonight or early tomorrow. Slow weakening
is possible by late saturday.

Really bad news!

WTNT42 KNHC 072049
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

AS IT HAS DONE SINCE THE FIRST ADVISORY...PALOMA CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...AND NOW APPEARS TO BE DOING SO AT A QUICKER PACE.
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED WITH
COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL. AIR FORCE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANES HAVE BEEN FLYING THROUGH THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE FOUND PEAK 10000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 106 KT...SFMR WINDS
OF 88 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 967 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 90 KT...AND HIGHER WINDS WILL SURELY BE FOUND IN SHORT
ORDER. BARRING AN EYEWALL CYCLE...PALOMA WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY
UNTIL THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...
STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR IS FORECAST UP
UNTIL A LANDFALL IN CUBA. A MORE RAPID WEAKENING WILL PROBABLY
OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA. EXTREMELY HIGH
SHEAR OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM
QUICKLY...PERHAPS EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELD A MOTION OF ABOUT 020/5...A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST APPEARS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. TRACK MODELS ARE REASONABLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK THROUGH
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL CUBA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
LARGE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS TO PALOMA IN THE
LONGER-TERM. HOWEVER...I'M STARTING TO PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE
SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS THE HURRICANE WILL RAPIDLY SHEAR APART NORTH
OF CUBA...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEING LEFT BEHIND AND MOVING
SLOWLY NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE GFDL...GFS...AND HWRF...THE FASTER
MODELS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...HAVE NOW SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND ACTUALLY SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. IN FACT ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE SYSTEM EITHER
MOVING SLOWLY OR MOVING WESTWARD IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST
WILL BE SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND COULD BE
ADJUSTED EVEN FARTHER WEST IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
HOWEVER...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF
PALOMA IF IT MAKES THAT WESTWARD TURN DUE TO THE EXTREMELY HIGH
SHEAR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 18.7N 81.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 19.3N 80.9W 100 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 20.2N 79.8W 95 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 21.1N 78.6W 85 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 21.8N 77.5W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 10/1800Z 22.7N 76.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 23.5N 75.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 12/1800Z 23.5N 75.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

Heading for Cayman