Thread: Sub-Tropical Storm Laura

Gone fishing!

Looks like it!

Wtnt42 knhc 291439
tcdat2
subtropical storm laura discussion number 2
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al122008
1100 am edt mon sep 29 2008

an 0852 utc quikscat pass over laura confirmed that the maximum
winds are near 50 kt within a swath located about 75 nm east of the
center. Subtropical classifications of st3.0 from tafb and sab
also support this initial intensity. A pronounced convective band
now curls about three quarters of the way around the east and north
of the large circulation but the low-level center remains broad and
ill-defined with several internal smaller swirls. With the
improved convective signature...a case could be made that the
cyclone is beginning to acquire more tropical characteristics.

Laura is beginning to make a more pronounced poleward turn as it
moves between high pressure north of the azores and the
extratropical remnants of hurricane kyle over the canadian
maritimes. A northwestward to northward motion will continue for
the next 36 hours or so but the latest track guidance has shifted
to the right of the previous official forecast. The new forecast
does not go as far to the right as the model consensus and instead
lies on the left side of the guidance...close to the gfs and
gfdl. Laura will likely be picked up by the mid-latitude trough
currently over the canadian maritimes by day 3 and then accelerate
eastward within the mid-latitude flow...possibly approaching the
british isles as a powerful extratropical low.

Ocean waters are marginally warm near laura...but appear to be just
warm enough to support increased convection. If the convection can
wrap closer to the center...there is a chance that the cyclone
could become a tropical cyclone before transitioning into an
extratropical low. Therefore...some strengthening is indicated
over the next 24 hours just before laura moves over increasingly
lower sea surface temperatures. Most of the dynamical guidance is
rather unimpressed with the potential for intensification whereas
the ships model shows laura strengthening to 80 kt by day 4 or
5...primarily due to a strong contribution from cold upper level
temperatures.


Forecast positions and max winds

initial 29/1500z 37.4n 47.8w 50 kt
12hr vt 30/0000z 38.1n 48.3w 55 kt
24hr vt 30/1200z 39.8n 48.3w 60 kt
36hr vt 01/0000z 41.8n 47.7w 60 kt
48hr vt 01/1200z 44.4n 46.6w 55 kt...extratropical
72hr vt 02/1200z 51.5n 41.5w 50 kt...extratropical
96hr vt 03/1200z 55.5n 30.5w 45 kt...extratropical
120hr vt 04/1200z 55.0n 15.0w 45 kt...extratropical

$$
forecaster berg/pasch

Wtnt32 knhc 292032
tcpat2
bulletin
subtropical storm laura advisory number 3
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al122008
500 pm ast mon sep 29 2008

...laura moving north-northwestward...beginning to transition to a
tropical storm...

At 500 pm ast...2100z...the center of subtropical storm laura was
located near latitude 38.3 north...longitude 48.4 west or about 630
miles...1010 km...south-southeast of cape race newfoundland.

Laura is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph. A turn
toward the north then north-northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours
before laura moves over colder waters. Laura is expected to become
a tropical storm tonight.

Winds of at least 40 mph extend outward up to 240 miles...390 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb...29.38 inches.

Repeating the 500 pm ast position...38.3 n...48.4 w. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60
mph. Minimum central pressure...995 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
1100 pm ast.

$$
forecaster berg/franklin

pretty good sized windfield.

Sure is the thing is huge

000
wtnt32 knhc 300830
tcpat2
bulletin
subtropical storm laura advisory number 5
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al122008
500 am ast tue sep 30 2008

...laura moving northward toward the cold aters of the north atlantic...

At 500 am ast the center of subtropical storm laura was located near latitude 40.3 north ... Longitude 49.0 west or about 485 miles south-southeast of cape race newfoundland.

The storm is moving toward the north near 13 mph. A turn to the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. A gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days...and laura may lose its tropical characteristics by thursday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 220 miles from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 996mb.

Repeating the 500 am ast position...40.3 n...49.0 w. Movement toward...north near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph.
Minimum central pressure...996 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 1100 am ast.

$$
forecaster beven