Thread: Tropical Storm Kyle

area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
351 pm ast sat sep 20 2008

.discussion...latest visible satellite imagery showing an
elongated area of low pressure southeast of the local forecast
area this afternoon. Expect the associated moisture to continue to
creep northwestward towards the u.s. Virgin islands and sections
of puerto rico this evening...as the tutt low to the north of the
islands continues to lift away from the local area. Both the nam
and gfs models are indicating very deep moisture invading the
local area after 00z this evening...with the low level flow
becoming more southeasterly. At this time...the best moisture and
dynamics appear to be converging south of the vi and eastern puerto
rico...and should bring increased shower activity to the local
caribbean waters and eastern sections of the forecast area
overnight. Once this initial surge of moisture moves across the
area overnight...expect fairly deep moisture to remain across the
local islands through the middle of next week. This will likely
result in variably cloudy skies and at least scattered showers
across the local islands through wednesday or thursday or next
week. Updated the forecast to increase probability of precipitation
for first 48 hours or so of forecast...but no significant changes
made to the extended forecast this afternoon. Will continue to
monitor developing convection associated with this tropical wave
as a flash flood watch may become necessary for the vi and eastern
sections of puerto rico on sunday if further intensification
occurs.

Tropical disturbance 93L continues to dump torrential rains on Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the eastern Dominican Republic. The storm is being blamed for four deaths in Puerto Rico--two from drowning, and two from heart attacks. The southeastern county of Patillas recorded 24 inches of rain in 24 hours. The Rio Gurabo River rose 25 feet in just 12 hours today, peaking at just over 30 feet high--12 feet over flood stage. This broke the record flood set in 1998 during Hurricane Georges at this station


FROM: Wunder Blog : Weather Underground


This thing may nothave a name - or even a number - yet, but, it's already deadly!

Down right scary how strong these things are getting

yep!
Jeff Masters goes on to give his forecast for the possible track and intensity of 93L:

TRACK:

(my comment: The following is VERY interesting! We don't often see even the possibility of the fujiwara effect!)

An extratropical storm is expected to develop off the coast of South Carolina by Wednesday, and five of our six reliable models predict that 93L and the extratropical storm will rotate cyclonically around a common center (the Fujiwhara effect), sending 93L hurtling into the U.S. East Coast on Friday somewhere between North Carolina and Massachusetts. The outlier is the UKMET model, which predicts that 93L will absorb the energy that would have gone into creating the extratropical low. This might convert 93L into a hybrid subtropical storm that would affect the coast of North and South Carolina late this week with sustained winds in the 50-60 mph range. Considering that we are trying to forecast a complicated interaction between two storms that have yet to form, the current model forecasts for 93L are highly uncertain. Residents along the entire U.S. East Coast from Georgia to Maine should anticipate the possibility of a strong tropical storm affecting them by Friday.

INTENSITY:

Shear is forecast to drop to 5-10 knots Tuesday and Wednesday which should allow 93L to intensify into a 50-60 mph tropical storm. There is a window of opportunity for it to reach Category 1 hurricane strength before Friday, when it crosses north of Virginia (assuming it doesn't make landfall in North or South Carolina).

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. WHILE THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTH WESTWARD AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVENNNNN

Amazing and intensity again like Ike. You know if these continue they have to come up with a way to publicise the intensity as well as the catagory. The catagory is determined by wind speed, Ike was a high cat 2 but the intensity, power, was a cat 5 strength with the surge.

Yes, I agree wholeheartedly.
I really think they need to re-think the intensity scale to give other factors besides windspeed some weight. Ike is a perfect example of WHY categorization by windspeed alone is not always accurate in terms of potential damage - and danger.

This area has gone RED now
(50% or greater chance of development)





1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTH OR NORTHWEST AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THEAREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGINISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL WEATHER FORECASTOFFICES.

Here we go again!