Thread: Josephine Dissipates Over The Far Eastern Atlantic

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...ACOUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Zczc Miatwoat All
Ttaa00 Knhc Ddhhmm
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
800 Pm Edt Mon Sep 1 2008

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...


The National Hurricane Center Is Issuing Advisories On Hurricane Gustav...located Inland Over Southern Louisiana...on Hurricane Hanna...located Near Mayaguana Island In The Southeastern Bahamas...and On Recently-upgraded Tropical Storm Ike...located Over The Central Tropical Atlantic About Halfway Between Africa And The Lesser Antilles.

1. A Tropical Wave Located Over The Far Eastern Atlantic A Couple Hundred Miles South-southeast Of The Cape Verde Islands Continues To Show Signs Of Organization. This System Has Not Yet Acquired A Well-defined Surface Circulation Center. However...environmental Conditions Are Favorable For Development And This System Could Become A Tropical Depression At Any Time Over The Next Day Or So As It Moves Westward At 15 To 20 Mph

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) has been issued on this disturbance.

000
Wtnt35 Knhc 020834
Tcpat5
Bulletin
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al102008
500 Am Edt Tue Sep 02 2008

...tenth Tropical Depression Of The Season Forms Over The Far
Eastern Atlantic Ocean...

At 500 Am Edt...0900z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Ten Was
Located Near Latitude 12.4 North...longitude 23.9 West Or About 170
Miles...270 Km...south-southeast Of The Southernmost Cape Verde
Islands.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The West Near 16 Mph...26 Km/hr. A
Motion Between West And West-northwest Is Expected For The Next Two
Days. On The Forecast Track...the Center Of The Depression Will
Remain Well South Of The Cape Verde Islands Today...and Move Away
From The Cape Verde Islands Later Tonight.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24
Hours...and The Depression Will Likely Become A Tropical Storm
Later Today.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1007 Mb...29.74 Inches.

Rainfall Amount Of 2 To 3 Inches Will Be Possible Over The Southern
Cape Verde Islands Today.

Repeating The 500 Am Edt Position...12.4 N...23.9 W. Movement
Toward...west Near 16 Mph. maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph.
minimum Central Pressure...1007 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
1100 Am Edt.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Just in case anyone was wonderig, the next name up is Josephine.

Oh yes, the tropical party is heating up now.

Wtnt25 Knhc 021448
Tcmat5
Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast/advisory Number 2
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al102008
1500 Utc Tue Sep 02 2008

Tropical Storm Center Located Near 13.2n 25.3w At 02/1500z
Position Accurate Within 30 Nm

Present Movement Toward The West Or 280 Degrees At 13 Kt

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure 1005 Mb
Max Sustained Winds 35 Kt With Gusts To 45 Kt.
34 Kt....... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw.

Wtnt45 Knhc 021450
Tcdat5
Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 2
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al102008
1100 Am Edt Tue Sep 02 2008

Visible Imagery Reveals An Increase In The Cyclone's
Organization...with Very Well-defined Convective Bands And Even A
Deceptive Central Feature Disguised As An Eye. The Convective Tops
Are Not Exceptionally Cold In The Infrared...but Dvorak Intensity
Estimates Are A Consensus 35 Kt...so The Depression Is Upgraded To
A Tropical Storm...the Tenth Of The 2008 Atlantic Season.
Josephine Is Currently Over Sea-surface Temperatures Of About 28
Celsius...and The Waters Along The Forecast Track Will Remain At
Least That Warm For About The Next 24 Hours. Wind Shear Is
Essentially Non-existent Over The Cyclone...so Steady Strengthening
Seems Likely In The Short Term...and Could Be Rapid Given The
Increased Organization And That The Ships-based Ri Index Gives A
50% Chance Of An Intensity Increase Of 30 Kt Or More In The Next 24
Hours. Beyond 24 Hours...josephine Will Traverse Slightly Cooler
Waters...and Due To An Upper-level Low Forecast By The Models To
Move In Tandem With The Tropical Cyclone...wind Shear Will Probably
Increase In A Couple Of Days. Even Though All Of The Objective
Guidance Calls For A Weakening Trend To Start By 72 Hours...to
Maintain Some Continuity The New Official Intensity Forecast Simply
Shows An Intensity Plateau At 60 Kt In The Longer Term.

The Initial Motion Remains Brisk Along A Heading Just North Of Due
West...or 280/13...but The Initial Position Has Been Adjusted
Slightly North Of The Previous Track Based On Visible Imagery And
An Earlier Quikscat Pass. A Mid-level High Centered Over The
East-central Subtropical Atlantic Is Currently The Primary Steering
Mechanism...but This Feature Is Forecast By The Models To Proceed
Westward And Shift To The Western Atlantic In A Few Days.
Meanwhile...the Deep-layer Low Just Off The Northeastern United
States Will Propagate Eastward And Erode The Ridge North Of
Josephine...which Will Probably Just Cause A Slight Bend To The
Right And A Slower Forward Motion At Days 3-5. Models Are In Very
Good Agreement Through 48 Hours But Then Diverge Markedly...with
The Gfs Turning The Cyclone Westward And The Gfdl And Hwrf Taking
It Northwestward. The Official Track Forecast Splits The
Difference And Follows The Consensus...which Is Just A Little North
Of The Previous Advisory.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 02/1500z 13.2n 25.3w 35 Kt
12hr Vt 03/0000z 13.6n 27.4w 45 Kt
24hr Vt 03/1200z 14.3n 29.9w 55 Kt
36hr Vt 04/0000z 15.2n 32.4w 60 Kt
48hr Vt 04/1200z 16.1n 34.9w 60 Kt
72hr Vt 05/1200z 18.5n 39.5w 60 Kt
96hr Vt 06/1200z 20.0n 43.5w 60 Kt
120hr Vt 07/1200z 21.0n 47.0w 60 Kt

$$
Forecaster Knabb

Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 3
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al102008
500 Pm Edt Tue Sep 02 2008

Josephine Continues To Exhibit A Rather Impressive Appearance In
Visible Imagery...although The Infrared Cloud Tops Are Still Not
All That Cold...with Solid And Fairly Symmetric Convective Banding
And Well-defined Upper-level Outflow In All Directions. Lacking
Actual Wind Data Anywhere Near The Center Of The Cyclone...the
Initial Intensity Estimate Is An Uncertain 45 Kt. Some Dvorak
Estimates And An Earlier Amsu Intensity Estimate Suggest The Storm
Could Be A Little Stronger...but We Can Wait Until The Various
Estimates Perhaps Come Into Better Agreement. Never Mind The
Details...josephine Appears Poised To Strengthen Some More. The
Storm Is Currently Located Over Rather Warm Sea-surface
Temperatures Of About 28 Celsius...and The Waters Will Remain That
Warm For About The Next 24 Hours. Combine That With The Complete
Absence Of Wind Shear...and Strengthening Appears Likely In The
Short Term. All Of The Objective Guidance Models Except For The
Hwrf Forecast A Hurricane...and The Intensity Consensus Is At 65 Kt
At 24 Hours. This Is Also Shown In The New Official Forecast...
Which Is An Upward Adjustment From The Previous Advisory. All Of
The Intensity Guidance Continues To Forecast A Weakening Trend At
Days 3-5...however...in Response To Josephine Passing Over Cooler
Ssts In A Couple Of Days...and Due To Increasing Southerly Wind
Shear On The Eastern Flank Of An Upper-level Low. Given This
Guidance...the Official Forecast Shows A Weaker Cyclone At Five
Days...and Even 55 Kt Is Above Nearly All Of The Model Predictions.

A Subtropical Ridge Centered Northwest Of Josephine Is Ushering The
Tropical Cyclone West-northwestward At About 290/12. Models Are
Clustered Fairly Tightly Around This Same Heading And Speed For The
Next 48 Hours. After That...the Gfdl And Hwrf Forecast A Faster
Motion That Eventually Becomes Northwestward Into A Weakness In The
Ridge Associated With The Deep-layer Low That Will Cross The
North-central Atlantic. The Global Models Are Either Slower Or
Farther South. Since The Gfdl And Hwrf Seem To Have The Best
Handle On The Initial Motion...those Solutions Are Slightly
Favored...and The Official Track Forecast Is A Little Right Of The
Consensus And Is Very Similar To The Previous Advisory.



Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 02/2100z 13.7n 25.9w 45 Kt
12hr Vt 03/0600z 14.2n 27.9w 60 Kt
24hr Vt 03/1800z 15.0n 30.5w 65 Kt
36hr Vt 04/0600z 15.9n 33.0w 70 Kt
48hr Vt 04/1800z 16.9n 35.5w 70 Kt
72hr Vt 05/1800z 19.0n 40.0w 60 Kt
96hr Vt 06/1800z 21.0n 44.0w 55 Kt
120hr Vt 07/1800z 22.5n 48.5w 55 Kt

$$
Forecaster Knabb