Thread: Tropical Depression Fay

As of now, the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into this one tomorrow afternoon.

Back to RED

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ISLOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OFTHE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLYBECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORMDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARDABOUT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ISSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY.

According to the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center, a pair of waves that have moved off the west coast of Africa are holding together in the central Atlantic Ocean.

The lead wave is spreading showers and thunderstorms over a broad area of the central Atlantic. Satellite imagery shows that the wave has the appearance of a developing tropical system.

Recon is in there now, has been for a bit

Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 121600z Aug 08//
Wtnt01 Kngu 121600
Unclas //n02146//
Msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Norfolk Va//

Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert//
Rmks/

1. Formation Of A Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within 100 Nm
Either Side Of A Line From 16.0n 52.0w To 18.0n 58.0w During The
Next 24 Hours. Available Data Does Not Justify Issuance Of A
Numbered Tropical Cyclone Warning At This Time.

2.an Atlantic Tropical Easterly Wave Is Located 850 Nm East-southeast
Of San Jaun, Puerto Rico And Is Moving West-northwest At 15kts.
Conditions Are Favorable For Development Over The Next 24 To 48
Hours As The System Moves Over Warmer Sea Surface Temperatures
(82f - 85f) And Shear Decreases, Making It More Conducive For
Tropical Cyclone Development.

3. This Alert Will Be Reissued, Allowed To Expire, Or Cancelled
By 131600z Aug 2008.//

Now THAT doesn't look good!

No, it doesn't, but, in looking at them, we need to remember one REALLY important thing:

NO TD yet, so there is NOT a defined LLC (Low Level Center, or center of circulation)

When the models are initialized WITHOUT an LLC, they don't have a good fix for a starting point, and so they don't function as well as when there is one. We need to see the model runs BEFORE it becomes a TD (if it does) with that in mind.

It should change many times before it gets close, but good to watch