Thread: Hurricane Hernan SSW of Baja Ca

...Hernan strengthens...


At 200 am PDT...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Hernan waslocated near latitude 14.5 north...longitude 114.0 west or about 640miles...1030 km...south-southwest of the southern tip of BajaCalifornia.
Hernan is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and this motion is expected to
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph...85km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening isforecast...and Hernan could become a hurricane within the nextcouple of days.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 kmfrom the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
Repeating the 200 am PDT position...14.5 N...114.0 W. Movementtoward...west-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at800 am PDT.
$$Forecaster Pasch

Wtpz44 Knhc 072056
Tcdep4
Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 5
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Ep092008
200 Pm Pdt Thu Aug 07 2008

The Overall Satellite Presentation Of Hernan Has Indicated A Gradual
Increase In Organization Today...but Microwave Imagery Suggests
That The Low-level Circulation Center Is Still A Little North Of
The Mid-level Center...which In Geostationary Visible Imagery Looks
Like An Eye That Is Trying To Form. Subjective Dvorak Intensity
Estimates At 18z Were A Consensus 55 Kt...and Quikscat Earlier
Today Around 1340z Retrieved Winds Of 50-55 Kt. It Is Possible That
Hernan Has Become A Little Stronger Than The Latest Dvorak
Estimates Suggest...but Given The Slightly Tilted Structure Evident
In Microwave Imagery...the Advisory Intensity Will Be Set To 55 Kt.
Nevertheless...hernan Appears To Be On The Cusp Of Becoming A
Hurricane...and All Of The Objective Intensity Models Forecast That
To Happen Within 24 Hours. The Official Forecast Calls For Hernan
To Reach Hurricane Status A Little Sooner Than...and To Peak A
Little Higher Than...most Of The Guidance. The Cyclone Has About
Two Days Until It Reaches Ssts Of 26 Celsius...so Steady Weakening
Is Forecast Beyond That Time...and At A Little Faster Rate Than
Shown By The Ships And Lgem.

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 285/12...but Is A Little Uncertain
Since It Is Not Crystal Clear In Microwave Imagery Where The
Low-level Center Is Located. Despite Not Knowing Those
Details...and Even Though There Is A Little Spread In The Track
Models...the Overall Synoptic Pattern Is Relatively Straightforward
With A Subtropical Ridge Of Moderate Strength Forecast To Remain In
Place Over The Eastern Pacific For The Next Several Days. Hernan
Should Continue West-northwestward Until Reaching The Cooler Waters
In A Few Days...followed By A Weaker Cyclone Eventually Turning
Westward In The Low-level Flow. The New Official Track Is A Little
South Of The Previous One Through About 48 Hours...but Is Otherwise
Not Changed That Much...and It Is Similar To The Model Consensus.



Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 07/2100z 14.8n 116.7w 55 Kt
12hr Vt 08/0600z 15.3n 118.1w 65 Kt
24hr Vt 08/1800z 15.8n 119.8w 70 Kt
36hr Vt 09/0600z 16.5n 121.6w 70 Kt
48hr Vt 09/1800z 17.1n 123.4w 70 Kt
72hr Vt 10/1800z 18.0n 126.5w 50 Kt
96hr Vt 11/1800z 19.0n 130.0w 35 Kt
120hr Vt 12/1800z 19.0n 133.5w 25 Kt...remnant Low

$$
Forecaster Knabb

000
Wtpz44 Knhc 081459
Tcdep4
Hurricane Hernan Discussion Number 8
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Ep092008
800 Am Pdt Fri Aug 08 2008

After A Noticeable Burst Of Deep Convection This Morning...satellite
Imagery Indicates A Cdo Feature Now Present With A Hint Of A Ragged
Eye Within The Past Few Hours. With Dvorak Satellite Estimates Now
At T4.0 From Both Tafb And Sab And Given Recent Trends...hernan Is
Upgraded To A Hurricane. In The Short-term...ships Model Output
Suggests Light Easterly Shear Amongst Other Favorable Factors
And...along The Forecast Track...hernan Should Remain Over 26
Celsius Ssts For At Least The Next 48 Hours. On This Basis...the
Expectation Is That Hernan Should Continue Strengthening For The
Next 24 Hours But Should Begin Weakening After It Reaches Cooler
Waters And A More Stable Atmosphere...especially Beyond 48 Hours.
Given The Increasing Organization Apparent In Recent Satellite
Imagery...and No Apparent Hindrances To Strengthening...the New
Official Intensity Forecast Is Higher Than The Previous Advisory
And Above Nearly All Of The Objective Guidance.

The Initial Motion Is Set At 275/11...which Is Very Similar To The
Heading During The Last 24 Hours. The Track Is Adjusted
Southward...however...after Reviewing A Host Of Microwave Imagery
This Morning...which Also Suggests That The Low-level And Mid-level
Centers Are Now Vertically Aligned. Mid-level Ridging Extending
From Northern Mexico Southwestward To North Of The Tropical Cyclone
Should Continue The Hurricane On A General Westward To
West-northwestward Track The Next Few Days...with The Official
Track On The Left Side Of The Guidance Envelope. Thereafter...a
Gradual Weakening Should Cause The Storm To Be Steered More With
The Low- To Mid-level Flow...on A More Westward And Possibly
West-southwestward Course By The End Of The Period.

Good grief!
ANOTHER Hurricane in the EPAC already this season. How many is this?
Seems like they're coming one after another there . . .

Well, the good thing is, the point at which they are forming, and the way the steering currents there are, they are staying away from land.

Just a concern for shipping, but even at that, it's a big ocean over there . . . Unless they hug the coast, ships can get around them and still get to where they need to go. and they haven't been coast huggers. so that's good

000
Wtpz34 Knhc 090846
Tcpep4
Bulletin
Hurricane Hernan Advisory Number 11
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Ep092008
200 Am Pdt Sat Aug 09 2008

At 200 Am Pdt...0900 Utc...the Center Of Hurricane Hernan Was
Located Near Latitude 15.4 North...longitude 122.5 West Or About 970
Miles...1565 Km...west-southwest Of The Southern Tip Of Baja
California.

Hernan Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 10 Mph...17 Km/hr...
And This Motion Is Expected To Continue During The Next Couple Of
Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 100 Mph...160 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Weakening Is Forecast To Begin During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 25 Miles...35 Km...from
The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 105
Miles...165 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 973 Mb...28.73 Inches.

Repeating The 200 Am Pdt Position...15.4 N...122.5 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 10 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...100
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...973 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
800 Am Pdt.

$$
Forecaster Rhome