Thread: TS Dolly-Former 94L

Fourth tropical storm of the Atlantic season forms in the western
Caribbean Sea...

at 1145 am EDT...1545 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from the
border with Belize to Campeche Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1145 am EDT...1545z...the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 18.4 north...longitude 84.2 west or about 270
miles...435 km...east of Chetumal Mexico and about 230 miles...365
km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

Dolly is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A
northwestward or west-northwestward motion is forecast during the
next couple of days...with little change in forward speed. On this
track...the center of Dolly will move across the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico tonight and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible today before Dolly reaches
the Yucatan Peninsula. Slow strengthening is forecast on Monday
once Dolly emerges over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center. Dolly could produce winds near tropical storm
force...especially in gusts...over the western tip of Cuba today.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft was 1008 mb...29.77 inches.
Dolly is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the
northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba...with
isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches. An additional 2 to 4
inches is expected in the Cayman Islands...with a storm total of up
to 8 inches.

Repeating the 1145 am EDT position...18.4 N...84.2 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Knabb

000
Wtnt44 Knhc 201608
Tcdat4
Tropical Storm Dolly Special Discussion Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042008
1145 Am Edt Sun Jul 20 2008

We Have Been Closely Monitoring The Strong Tropical Wave As It Has
Crossed The Caribbean Sea During The Past Few Days...with Several
Aircraft Reconnaissance Missions Searching For A Well-defined
Closed Surface Circulation. Not Until This Morning Did The
Aircraft Detect Such A Circulation. The System Is Producing More
Than Enough Deep Convection Requisite Of A Tropical Cyclone...so
Advisories Are Being Initiated. This System Has Been Producing
Winds Of 35-40 Kt For The Past 24 Hours Or So...and This Morning
The Sfmr On The Aircraft Reported Winds As Strong As 42 Kt...along
With Winds Of 50 Kt At Flight Level. In Addition...noaa Buoy
42057...situated Southeast Of The Circulation Center...measured
Sustained Winds Of Tropical Storm Force For About Four Hours This
Morning...as Strong As 39 Kt. Based On The Above Data...the
Cyclone Is Immediately Designated A Tropical Storm With Maximum
Winds Of 40 Kt. This Is Currently A Sprawling System With 34-kt
Winds And Heavy Rains Extending Well Away From The Center...although
Very Recently Convection Has Begun To Consolidate Over The
Circulation Center.

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 305/15...with Steering Provided By A
Narrow Mid-level Ridge Across Florida In Between Dolly And
Cristobal. That Ridge Is Forecast By The Global Models To
Gradually Weaken As A Mid-latitude Trough Deepens Over The Great
Lakes Region. As A Result...the Forward Motion Of Dolly Is Likely
To Become Slower When It Is Over The Gulf Of Mexico. The Models
Are In Good Agreement On The Track Over Northern Yucatan And The
South-central Gulf During The Next Couple Of Days...but Then The
Spread Is Greater On Days 3-5...with Some Models Eventually
Forecasting Dolly To Move Into Northern Mexico...while Others Head
Into Southern Texas. They Also Disagree Greatly On How Long It
Might Take For Dolly To Make Final Landfall. The Most Prudent
Approach For Now Is For The Official Forecast To Be Very Close To
The Model Consensus.

There Are Two Inhibiting Factors For Strengthening In The Short
Term...with The Obvious One Being Interaction With The Land Mass Of
Yucatan Tonight. Also...an Upper-level Low Immediately To The West
Of Dolly Is Imparting Some Wind Shear That Is Part Of The Reason
For Such An Asymmetric Cloud Pattern. That Low...however...is
Headed Southwestward And Out Of The Way...and When Dolly Reaches
The Gulf Of Mexico It Is Likely To Find Itself Beneath A Large
Upper-level Anticyclone...so Conditions Appear Conducive For
Strengthening Over The Very Warm Gulf Waters. The Official
Intensity Forecast Is Close To The Ships Model Solution Of A Strong
Tropical Storm Over The Western Gulf...although The Gfdl Forecast
Of A Hurricane In That Area Is Certainly Possible.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 20/1545z 18.4n 84.2w 40 Kt
12hr Vt 21/0000z 19.7n 86.3w 45 Kt
24hr Vt 21/1200z 21.1n 89.5w 40 Kt...inland Over Yucatan
36hr Vt 22/0000z 22.2n 92.2w 45 Kt...over Gulf Of Mexico
48hr Vt 22/1200z 23.0n 94.0w 50 Kt
72hr Vt 23/1200z 24.5n 96.0w 55 Kt
96hr Vt 24/1200z 26.0n 97.5w 60 Kt...inland
120hr Vt 25/1200z 27.0n 100.0w 35 Kt...inland

$$
Forecaster Knabb

HURRICANE WATCH POSTED FOR SOUTH TEXAS AS TROPICAL STORM DOLLY STRENGTHENS

**Watch FOX News Channel or go to Breaking News | Latest News | Current News - FOXNews.com for more

Okay, Dolly is away from land and is in the gulf, the track has moved further north a bit, and Chevron is evacuating its platform south of Galveston, after this post I will catch up on what we missed

Here we go again! Hope it's not going to be one of those seasons where all hell breaks loose everywhere!

Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 2:11 pm

Hello all. I live in the South Texas area near Brownsville and work with the Pharr Fire Dept and EMC and we just got off the phone in a conference with the State of Texas and NWS BRO and we are getting ready for a possible strike such as transportation, sand bags and evacuation routes and a possible counter flow if in case the storm is to come to a direct hit. We are monitoring the storm close and also the Rio Grande Valley might appear to be small but we at least have over a million people and all agencies including ours are working together and getting prepared.

Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:25 pm
State of Texas activation will begin at 800am Monday AM.

H-72 was at 700pm
H-36 at 700am Tuesday
H-0 is set for 700pm Wed.

Evacaution and fuel teams being preped Monday for S TX.

All 34 agencies in state Hurricane Response Plan will fully activate at 800am Tuesday.

We are going to be cutting it very close if mass evac is needed for the valley. Requires at least 1300 busses for special needs.

Lots of desicions coming on Monday. That is without any track changes...I thin NHC is too far south.


posted Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:12 pm

Track:

Note: GIV mission is in progress and KDRT, KBRO, KCRP, and KLCH will be launching soundings every 6 hours in support of NHC forecasting operations.

Dolly will continue to move toward the NW with a gradual decrease in forward speed. A high pressure ridge currently over TX will weaken Tuesday and Wednesday allowing Dolly to slow even more and may meander in the western Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is forecast to build back in from the east Thursday and this should push Dolly toward the WNW....million dollar question is where is Dolly when this happens. Current NHC guidance brings a hurricane in to extreme northern Mexico...with the northern edge of the error cone at about Matagorda right now. Will see how new GIV data and sounding data affects the model forecast track. Current track brings core of dangerous NE quad across S TX and Padre Island.

I want to be very clear....DO NOT focus on the exact forecast track but the overall error cone. This is an organizing system and a center re-formation could have large track changes at the end of the period.

Just in 18Z GFDL is shifting north to S TX and 18Z GFS shows the system turning north and moving along the lower TX coast and then inland around Rockport.

Intensity:

I am becoming concerned on the intensity as conditions appear 100% go for rapid intensification in the Gulf of Mexico. 250mb high will build over Dolly over 85+ SST's and good upper level venting. Once the inner core consolidates there appears very little to inhibit rapid deepening. NHC currently forecast a cat 1...however a cat 2 is certainly possible and a cat 3 or higher is not out of the question.

Preparation Actions:

The State of Texas is PLANNING for the impact of a category 2 hurricane on the Texas coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi early Thursday morning.

At 800am Monday the State Operations Center in Austin will fully activate.
H-72 timeline was established at 700pm this evening
H-36 is set for 700am Tuesday morning
H-0 is set for 700pm Wednesday evening.

FEMA, evacuation, and fuel liaisons will be in Austin early Monday and the 34 agency Texas Hurricane Response Plan team will meet at 200pm Monday afternoon.

All 34 agencies will fully activate at 800am Tuesday morning.

Fuel supply teams will be ready to activate the evacuation fuel supply readiness to S TX on Monday along with hundreds of busses if needed. Alamo Command will be established to coordinate regional evacuations of S TX if it is needed.

Evacuation recommendations will likely be release Monday for coastal residents on South Padre Island and along the lower TX coast.

Impacts:

Dolly is already a very large storm with TS force winds extending outward 175 to the NE from the center. NHC is forecasting a 300 mile wide diameter of TS force winds at landfall which will impact a large part of the Texas coast. Will need to ramp up wind, seas, and tide forecast to match NHC track. Currently TS force wind radius should remain SW of Matagorda Bay...however only a slight change in the track to the north could bring TS force winds into our area. Seas will need adjustment upward to match western Gulf of Mexico hurricane and current NHC track. Expect seas to build quickly Tuesday to 8-12 feet offshore waters and 6-8 feet nearshore. Increasing long period swells will begin beach water pile-up and tides will begin to run above normal late Tuesday. May need coastal flood watch/advisory for Matagorda Bay based on the NHC track at this time.

Residents along the Texas coast should review hurricane preparation plans and fully stock their hurricane supplies.

Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 5
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042008
1100 Am Edt Mon Jul 21 2008

There Is Little Doubt Now That Dolly Has A Closed Surface
Circulation...which Has Become Evident In Visible Satellite Imagery
Over The Gulf Of Mexico Just Off The Northern Coast Of The Yucatan
Peninsula. A Noaa Reconnaissance Aircraft Recently Confirmed The
Existence Of The Closed Circulation In The Low-level Wind
Field...and Found That Maximum Winds Remain About 45 Kt. The Deep
Convection Is Now Starting To Wrap Around The Western Side Of The
Circulation...and Outflow Continues To Expand In All Quadrants. A
Large Upper-level Anticyclone Covers Most Of The Gulf Of
Mexico...so The Atmospheric Environment Appears Quite Conducive For
Strengthening...and The Sea-surface Temperatures Along The
Entire Over-water Forecast Track Are Quite Warm. In About 18-24
Hours...dolly Is Expected To Pass Over Ssts Greater Than 29
Celsius...and A Relative Maximum In Ocean Heat Content...an Area
With A Somewhat Deeper Reservoir Of Warm Water Beneath The Surface.
As A Result Of These Conditions...strengthening Appears
Likely...but Given The Current Sprawling Nature Of The
Circulation...the Rate Of Intensification Is Difficult To
Forecast...since It Is Uncertain How Long It Will Take For A True
Inner Core To Develop. The New Official Forecast Leans Toward The
Higher End Of The Intensity Guidance...close To The Gfdl
Solution...in Calling For A Slightly Higher Peak Intensity Than The
Previous Advisory. Since The Exact Timing And Location Of Landfall
Are Uncertain...the Forecast Weakening Between 48 And 72 Hours Only
Results From The 72-hour Point Being Inland...and A Strengthening
Trend Is Forecast Up To The Time Of Final Landfall.

Dolly Is Still Moving Rather Quickly...300/16...to The South Of A
Mid-level Ridge Over The Southeastern United States. All Of The
Dynamical Models Forecast This Ridge To Gradually Weaken During The
Next Few Days...resulting In Track Guidance Showing A Significant
Slowing Of The Forward Motion As The Cyclone Proceeds Into The
Western Gulf. Most Of The Guidance Has Shifted A Little
Northward Over The Western Gulf...and So Has The Official
Forecast...which Remains Down The Middle Of The Guidance Envelope.
There Are Very Reliable Models On Both Sides Of The Official
Track...so It Is Important Not To Focus On The Exact Location Of
Landfall Implied By The Official Track.

The New Forecast Requires The Issuance Of Hurricane And Tropical
Storm Watches For The Coast Of The Western Gulf Of Mexico.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 21/1500z 22.1n 89.5w 45 Kt
12hr Vt 22/0000z 23.0n 91.6w 55 Kt
24hr Vt 22/1200z 24.2n 93.8w 60 Kt
36hr Vt 23/0000z 25.1n 95.2w 70 Kt
48hr Vt 23/1200z 25.9n 96.4w 80 Kt
72hr Vt 24/1200z 26.5n 98.5w 50 Kt...inland
96hr Vt 25/1200z 27.0n 100.5w 30 Kt...inland
120hr Vt 26/1200z...dissipated

$$
Forecaster Knabb

Hurricane Watch is issued for the TX coast from Port O Connor to Brownsville.

Tropical storm watch is issued from the west end of Galveston Island to Port O Connor.

TXDOT has changed highway DMS signs to fuel your gas tanks and fuel consumption in the Houston/Galveston area has surged in the last 12 hours.

Track:

Track guidance has shifted northward on the 06Z and 12Z runs of the GFDL and tropicals. The 1000am NHC advisory has also shifted northward and now shows a landfall across south TX between KBRO and KCRP. It should be noted that the extension of the hurricane watch and tropical storm watch northward are due to the large storm size and potential forecast track error. Dolly will slow greatly in the western Gulf as high pressure over TX weakens.

Intensity:

Recon. reported 56kts in the NE quad. and Dolly is looking very impressive on satellite images. In fact aircraft radar is showing decent banding around the center. All factors appear satisfied for rapid deepening and the NHC and local NWS offices are making it very clear the current forecast for a high end cat 1 may be on the low end. Will have to see how long it takes the inner core to form…but it looks very well organized on sat images.

Impacts:

Per NHC TS wind probability tables indicates a 30-40% chance of TS force winds across Galveston and 40-50% chance of TS force winds across Matagorda Bay with hurricane force conditions south of that. With this in mind and the current TS watch outline area. Will bring TS force winds into the Matagorda Bay area Wednesday afternoon in gusts in squalls and build to sustained 35kts by Wednesday overnight as the hurricane moves toward the coast.

Long period swells of 6-8 feet are already being generated and expect seas to build 16-18 feet offshore and 8-12 feet near shore with coastal flooding onsetting with higher swells. Right now coastal flood problems look greatest from Palacios southward and then High Island eastward where Ekman transport will come into play. Current forecast are for tides to run 1-2’ above normal. Just run SLOSH of high end cat 1 impact on NHC forecast brings 6 foot surge north of the center across the lower TX coast and toward the KCRP area.

Rainfall of 5-10 inches will be common along and to the right of where the center crosses the coast with isolated amounts of 15”. Slow storm motion points to some hefty tropical totals. SW part of area around Matagorda Bay can expect 2-4 inches widespread with isolated amounts to 8” where feeder bands train. Across the rest of the area 1-3” is possible.

NOTE: additional track changes will require significant impact changes.

Preparation Actions:

State SOC is fully operational

HCOEM is activating to Level II at noon today.

Fuel supply teams are moving fuel to the coastal areas in response to TXDOT DMS signage being changed.

Evacuation of barrier islands along the S TX coast is expected to be ordered this afternoon in phase with a predicted landfall of a category 2 hurricane.

At this time, since this is not forecast to be a cat 3, no large scale mass evacuations are going to be ordered, there is really not enough time anyhow.

Residents in the Hurricane Watch area should begin preparations for the impact of a category 2 hurricane within the next 36 hours.

Residents in the TS Watch area should prepare for the impact of TS conditions within the next 36 hours.

Bulletin
Tropical Storm Dolly Intermediate Advisory Number 5a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042008
100 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 21 2008

..dolly Moving Quickly Northwestward Over The Southern Gulf


A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect From Rio San Fernando Mexico
Northward...across The Border Between Mexico And The United
States...and Along The Texas Coast To Port O'connor. A Hurricane
Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch
Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For The Coast Of Mexico From La
Pesca Northward To South Of Rio San Fernando...and For The Texas
Coast From North Of Port O'connor To San Luis Pass. A Tropical
Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible
Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

At 100 Pm Cdt...1800 Utc...the Government Of Mexico Has Discontinued
The Tropical Storm Warning For The Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 100 Pm Cdt...1800z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Dolly Was
Located Near Latitude 22.8 North...longitude 90.4 West Or About 475
Miles...765 Km...east-southeast Of The Coast Of The Lower Rio
Grande Valley Of South Texas And Northeastern Mexico.

Dolly Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 18 Mph...30 Km/hr. A
Gradual Decrease In Forward Speed Is Forecast During The Next
Couple Of Days...with Little Change In The Direction Of Motion. On
This Track...dolly Will Be Approaching The Coast Of The Western
Gulf Of Mexico By Tuesday Night And Wednesday.

Reports From An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft Indicate That
Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 50 Mph...85 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Strengthening Is Forecast...and Dolly Could Become A
Hurricane By Tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 175 Miles...280 Km
From The Center.

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By The Aircraft Was
1005 Mb...29.68 Inches.

Dolly Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of Two To Four
Inches Across The Northern Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico With
Isolated Maximum Amounts Up To Six Inches.

Repeating The 100 Pm Cdt Position...22.8 N...90.4 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 18 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...50
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1005 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
400 Pm Cdt.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
400 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

..DOLLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF


A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO
NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED
STATES...AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA
PESCA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO...AND FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREAS
LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES...680 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY WEDNESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE REACHING THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...23.1 N...91.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.